Bracketology Updated 1/16/14

#26
#26
bleedingTNorange said:
Said team is not in SEC. However said team had a SOS very similar to what Tennessee's current SOS is.

Did you miss the last part of my previous post?

I clearly stated that at worst that's what we could lose and still have a chance. Did we have a pretty decent chance last year when we entered the SECT? The OP didn't ask how many can we lose to be LOCKS prior to the SECT.

Go 11-7 and we have a better chance of making the tournament than not, that simple.
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knoxville's finest said:
BTO, not to be negative but I'll ask anyways. How many games do you think we can afford to lose and not be a bubble team? IMO Arky, Ole Miss, UF, Kent, are not guaranteed wins.
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OP wants to know what it takes to be NOT ON THE BUBBLE. He wants to know what gets us in the NCAA and we don't have to worry about SECT.

I say 13-5 and we are playing for seeding during the SECT.

12-6 we are likely in but I wouldn't want to lose a 1st round game in SEC.

11-7 = we are on the bubble heading into SECT play. Exact same position as we were last year.
 
#27
#27
BigZiti09 said:
OP wants to know what it takes to be NOT ON THE BUBBLE. He wants to know what gets us in the NCAA and we don't have to worry about SECT.

I say 13-5 and we are playing for seeding during the SECT.

12-6 we are likely in but I wouldn't want to lose a 1st round game in SEC.

11-7 = we are on the bubble heading into SECT play. Exact same position as we were last year.
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That's my bad, I misread it, read it as what would it take not not be on the wrong side of the bubble.

It's a tough question, because yea 13-5 we are probably in regardless, but what if we lose our 1st game to say Mississippi State? We may be in still, but considered somewhat of a bubble team.

On the flip side, go 11-7 and go 2-1 in the SECT and you're probably in better position than the above scenario that I listed. That's why it's not an easy question to answer, because unless we go like 15-3 in conference if we fall on our face in the SECT we could be flirting with bubble territory again if that makes sense.
 
#29
#29
bleedingTNorange said:
That's my bad, I misread it, read it as what would it take not not be on the wrong side of the bubble.

It's a tough question, because yea 13-5 we are probably in regardless, but what if we lose our 1st game to say Mississippi State? We may be in still, but considered somewhat of a bubble team.

On the flip side, go 11-7 and go 2-1 in the SECT and you're probably in better position than the above scenario that I listed. That's why it's not an easy question to answer, because unless we go like 15-3 in conference if we fall on our face in the SECT we could be flirting with bubble territory again if that makes sense.
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Yep. This team has squandered any opportunity of realistically not being on the bubble.

I think that is what has most fans upset and rightfully so.

I mean, really if you end up on the bubble, it's no different than the past two years regardless if we actually get in or not. So in many fans eyes, this season is already a bust and I'm not sure I completely disagree.
 
#30
#30
BigZiti09 said:
Yep. This team has squandered any opportunity of realistically not being on the bubble.

I think that is what has most fans upset and rightfully so.

I mean, really if you end up on the bubble, it's no different than the past two years regardless if we actually get in or not. So in many fans eyes, this season is already a bust and I'm not sure I completely disagree.
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What has me upset is how we can beat UVA by 35 (after barely scoring 35 against them last year), beat LSU by 18 at their place, and then inexplicably lose games at home to NCSU and TAMU, and essentially ruining any benefit of doubt we established with the committee.

I can establish legitimate reasoning for losses to Xavier, UTEP, and Wichita St., but the other two were simply products of player disinterest and inept coaching decisions. There are no gimmes for this team (USC Upstate and Auburn).

Consistently inconsistent is the only way to describe this bunch. There is little fire from the coaching staff on down and it is reflected in the players apparent disinterest on the court.
 
#31
#31
BigZiti09 said:
Yep. This team has squandered any opportunity of realistically not being on the bubble.

I think that is what has most fans upset and rightfully so.

I mean, really if you end up on the bubble, it's no different than the past two years regardless if we actually get in or not. So in many fans eyes, this season is already a bust and I'm not sure I completely disagree.
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It just depends on what each persons definition of "bubble" is, I suppose. To me, it's anything from projected last 4 in and worse, right now we aren't in that category (according to Lunardi). Some peoples definition may be, if you aren't a 5 seed or better you're on the bubble, I don't know?

To me if we go 21-10(12-6) win 2 SECT games and get in as a 7 seed, that's a pretty successful season. Not the elite season we had hoped for, but still a pretty good year.
 
#32
#32
bleedingTNorange said:
If that's all that factors in, then surely a team with this resume wouldn't get in would they?

2012-2013
Non Conference: 8-4
Conference: 10-8
Total Record 18-12
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Said team had an SOS of 20 and 5 rpi 1-50 wins to offset 2 bad losses.
With only 3 rpi 1-50 teams left on our schedule, can we muster enough quality wins to offset our 2 blunders, not to mention NC St who sits at a precarious 98.3 rpi.
Hypothetically yes.
Those who live in the real world will have a hard time believing we can.
 
#33
#33
bleedingTNorange said:
It just depends on what each persons definition of "bubble" is, I suppose. To me, it's anything from projected last 4 in and worse, right now we aren't in that category (according to Lunardi). Some peoples definition may be, if you aren't a 5 seed or better you're on the bubble, I don't know?

To me if we go 21-10(12-6) win 2 SECT games and get in as a 7 seed, that's a pretty successful season. Not the elite season we had hoped for, but still a pretty good year.
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Bubble = finishing the regular season unsure about having a tourney spot.

I'm willing to see this thing play out but this team is destined for the bubble because I don't believe Martin or the team can handle success. We've seen it time and time again. As soon as they win enough to get to feeling comfortable, they fall flat on their face.

Right now, I see 21-10 (12-6), 1 win in SECT, 9 or 10 seed in NCAAT, first round loss. Martin retained, fans disgruntled.
 
#34
#34
BigZiti09 said:
Bubble = finishing the regular season unsure about having a tourney spot.


Right now, I see 21-10 (12-6), 1 win in SECT, 9 or 10 seed in NCAAT, first round loss. Martin retained, fans disgruntled.
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9 or 10 seed teams are typically teams considered locks, teams that know they have a spot, just unsure of seed.

So a 9 or 10, at least IMO likely isn't a bubble team, and according to your definition shouldn't be considered one either.
 
#35
#35
bleedingTNorange said:
9 or 10 seed teams are typically teams considered locks, teams that know they have a spot, just unsure of seed.

So a 9 or 10, at least IMO likely isn't a bubble team, and according to your definition shouldn't be considered one either.
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Probably not considered on the bubble but way to close for my liking.
 
#36
#36
Everyone's definition will be different, but I would say anything over a 10 seed is probably on the bubble. But now, with a field of 68, that is still probably 10 teams.

I went back and looked at Ken Pom's rankings in 2012 and 2013. I don't know where we were at bid time, but we finished 58th and 75th. The thing that gives me encouragement is that we are currently at 23rd. I still don't trust the committee though if we are "on the bubble." I have seen too many teams left out when I thought they were deserving.
 
#37
#37
bleedingTNorange said:
To me if we go 21-10(12-6) win 2 SECT games and get in as a 7 seed, that's a pretty successful season. Not the elite season we had hoped for, but still a pretty good year.
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"...a pretty successful season"?? Is that what we're hoping for around here now? With the talent and experience on this team, anything less than a sweet 16 trip is a bust, IMO. If CCM can't coach this bunch to something other than 'a pretty successful season,' I have absolutely zero confidence in him to coach what we're going to be left with next year.
 
#38
#38
It's funny, Dave Hart built in to Cuonzo's contract a 50k incentive for making the NCAA tournament, what's that say?
 
#39
#39
VolGee4 said:
Everyone's definition will be different, but I would say anything over a 10 seed is probably on the bubble. But now, with a field of 68, that is still probably 10 teams.

I went back and looked at Ken Pom's rankings in 2012 and 2013. I don't know where we were at bid time, but we finished 58th and 75th. The thing that gives me encouragement is that we are currently at 23rd. I still don't trust the committee though if we are "on the bubble." I have seen too many teams left out when I thought they were deserving.
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Iowa missed the dance last season and was ranked 29th in the Kenpom rankings.
 
#40
#40
MemphisCanes said:
Iowa missed the dance last season and was ranked 29th in the Kenpom rankings.
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Did not realize that. I guess the differences are that Iowa did not have a winning conference record and only had one decent OOC win (Iowa State, who was a 10 seed). Iowa's Big Ten schedule bolstered their ranking. We must have a winning conference record, and our wins over Xavier and Virginia are better (at this point).

But, yes, I have no faith in the committee.

BTW, had the chance to go to the game tonight but couldn't. Slow down Napier, and they should win. I heard he leads them in 10 offensive categories.
 
#41
#41
VolGee4 said:
BTW, had the chance to go to the game tonight but couldn't. Slow down Napier, and they should win. I heard he leads them in 10 offensive categories.
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I think Memphis wins big, UCONN strengths are their guards, that plays right into Memphis' hands IMO.
 
#43
#43
Quick question-on ESPN's RPI rankings, it lists OOC SOS, and then OOC RPI. What is the difference? Thanks for any info.
 
#45
#45
bleedingTNorange said:
SOS is strength of schedule
RPI is Rating Percentage Index
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Yea I guess what I'm asking is, if they rate our SOS as say a 40, and our OOC RPI like 180, what are they saying?

In other words, they can't be saying that the average OOC opponent has a 180 for an RPI, or the SOS would never be that high.
 
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#46
#46
volgrad500 said:
Yea I guess what I'm asking is, if they rate our SOS as say a 40, and our OOC RPI like 180, what are they saying?

In other words, they can't be saying that the average OOC opponent has a 180 for an RPI, or the SOS would never be that high.
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Who has an OOC RPI listed?
 
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