Breaking Down February

[zjcvols]

This is where Cuonzo Martin usually shines. Under Coach Martin, Tennessee is 16-4 the last two years in the month of February.

The bad news? Tennessee has been disappointing this season. 13-7 (4-3) with a couple mind boggling losses has really put a damper on the season.

The good news? This is the best position Tennessee is in since Martin has taken over. Most brackets had Tennessee in before tonight's game. Tennessee now has an RPI of 48 after the victory tonight. They have two really nice OOC wins against Xavier (on a neutral court) and against Virginia. Tennessee can easily bump up their RPI plenty more the next month.

Let's break it down game by game. I'll scatter some basketball thoughts in another thread later in the week.

2/1- @Alabama 9-10 (3-3) RPI: 82

Alabama didn't expect to have a great year, but they have still been disappointing and it is looking like the Anthony Grant Era is on its last legs. Alabama gave Tennessee all they could handle last season in both games. Trevor Releford might be the guard nobody talks about in the SEC. He's a lights out player and should not be overlooked. Alabama is a poor, poor rebounding team, which gives the advantage to Tennessee. Alabama can shoot the three ball at home, so Tennessee must guard the perimeter well to win.

Odds for a win: 50%. With the road woes of Tennessee, and Alabama always a tough out at home, this game should favor Tennessee, but it will not be an easy game.

2/5 @Vanderbilt 11-8 (3-4) RPI: 86

Cuonzo Martin has a nice record against Kevin Stallings at 3-1. Vanderbilt has had a myriad of departures for a myriad of reasons, and they are down to seven scholarship players. However, Vandy hasn't quit. They upset Missouri, and now won two straight road games in the SEC. That's impressive for this team. They guard hard. However, Tennessee is the better team.

Odds for a win: 70%. As long as Tennessee protects the ball and rebounds, they should win this game. But playing in Nashville at that abomination they call a gym is never a given.

2/8 vs. South Carolina 8-12 (1-6) RPI: 144

South Carolina is not a very good team. Frank Martin was looking for improvement this season and has not gotten it. Michael Carrera is a fun player to watch, but South Carolina does nothing well.

Odds for a win: 99%. This will be a win for Tennessee. This isn't a Texas A&M or Georgia team (from last year) where they have a little bit of talent to at least compete for a victory. Tennessee will take care of business.

2/11 vs. Florida 17-2 (6-0) RPI: 6

Florida is a top ten team in the country. We know that. We saw them curb stomp Tennessee plenty this past Saturday. This is the best Florida team since their title run, and now five star PF/C Chris Walker has been ruled eligible to give them more depth. The odds aren't looking good. But Tennessee will shoot better than they did in Gainesville, and they still have a matchup advantage down low.

Odds for a win: 20%. This is respect for the Vols at TBA. This will be an incredibly tough game to win and very unlikely.

2/15 vs. @Missouri 16-4 (4-3) RPI: 46

Missouri had an easy OOC schedule and the SEC has exposed them some. But they are a dangerous team that can compete. They play an up-and-down game and can really beat teams down physically with their conditioning. Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson are the best 1-2 guard punch in the SEC and they can fill it up. Missouri doesn't have a lot inside, but their bigs can play outside on offense and can block shots.

Odds for a win: 40%. Tennessee has an inside advantage but going to Columbia will be really tough. Tennessee must hit outside shots despite the advantage down low to win, but Missouri will force a lot of turnovers.

2/18 vs. Georgia 10-9 (4-3) RPI: 120

Georgia is beyond awful offensively. They are one of the worst passing teams in the country. They started hot going 4-1 in the SEC with nice wins against Mizzou and Bama, but have come back to earth. They are not a very good team right now and don't have a lot. They do have some length inside that could give Tennessee problems.

Odds for a win: 75%. This should be higher, but Georgia has Martin's number. I doubt this will matter and firmly believe Tennessee will win, but I will not lie. I will be nervous for this game.

2/22 @Texas A&M 12-8 (3-4) RPI: 138

Let's be honest. If Tennessee didn't blow the game against TAMU, people would feel better about this team. That loss and the UTEP game just make you shake your head. TAMU got their asses handed to them by South Carolina. This is not that good of a team.

Odds: 50%. I want to give it more, but I can't after what I watched in TBA. Tennessee must win this game. Tennessee is the better team but they must come out aggressive.

2/26 @Mississippi State 13-6 (3-3) RPI: 139

Give Rick Ray credit. This program was burned to the ground after Rick Stansbury left, but Ray has really built it back up to respectability, despite the easy schedule. They guard hard and play hard every night. Gavin Ware is a really nice post player and will give Jarnell everything he can handle.

Odds for a win: 70%. Mississippi State won't be a cake walk like last year, but Tennessee should win and has the athleticism advantage.

My prediction for February: With this team, who the hell knows what will happen. They could fold and go 3-5, or come out guns blazing and go 8-0. But Freak pays me the big bucks (yeah right) to make some predictions. Tennessee has another good month in February. Tennessee will go 6-2 with losses to Alabama and Florida. That would give Tennessee a 19-9 record (10-5) going into March with three very winnable games and in good RPI position. Honestly, Tennessee has a great chance to go 7-1 this month if they play solid defense and knock down perimeter shots. They then can start fighting for seeding at that point. This team is a question mark with consistency. Let's hope Martin puts it together and gets Tennessee a good tournament seed this year.

 

[Winningitall]

The next two games will be tough, but if we win on the road it should give us serious momentum. Richardson really needs to step up and be a consistent fourth option. He has the ability just needs the confidence and the ball in his hands more. Maymon has looked good the past few games, I really think he's back to form despite the loss of a bit of explosiveness.

Stallings has a done a great job with Vanderbilt despite the massive attrition they've faced this year. Bama always plays UT tough, especially since Cuonzo's been here. If they trap us it could cause major problems because a few possessions may be the difference in the game. FT shooting will be crucial in the upcoming away games.

My only prediction is that we will beat A&M in College Station. That and the NC State loss were inexcusable. UTEP didn't bother me as much due to the abnormal starting time and crazy wait.

 

[zjcvols]

The next two games will be tough, but if we win on the road it should give us serious momentum. Richardson really needs to step up and be a consistent fourth option. He has the ability just needs the confidence and the ball in his hands more. Maymon has looked good the past few games, I really think he's back to form despite the loss of a bit of explosiveness.

Stallings has a done a great job with Vanderbilt despite the massive attrition they've faced this year. Bama always plays UT tough, especially since Cuonzo's been here. If they trap us it could cause major problems because a few possessions may be the difference in the game. FT shooting will be crucial in the upcoming away games.

My only prediction is that we will beat A&M in College Station. That and the NC State loss were inexcusable. UTEP didn't bother me as much due to the abnormal starting time and crazy wait.

Richardson's home/road splits are scary. He has to play well on the road. He can't no show. Maymon is doing a better job getting positioning and using his footwork. He's a strong motha****er, but he's learning to adjust without his explosiveness.

Stallings is a good coach and his players all play for him. That will not be an easy game. I can see it being one of those ugly 65-58 games. Alabama pressed us last year. We've had problems with the press this year. Darius and Antonio will really need to step up.

I think we get TAMU away too, but no road game is easy with this team.

 

[OrangeBalls]

Bama doesn't have a good record but they've played a very tough schedule. Last time I looked it was around 2nd in the nation.

If this team takes it one game at a time and Thompson can continue to grow, they'll get better. They got better tonight by Martin starting Thompson. I was glad to see Davis get some minutes too even if only a few. He has been buried on the bench lately.

We have played the toughest part of our schedule. We've already played @ Ky, @ Fla and @ LSU. Three of the better teams in the SEC. We just played another one in Ole Miss. The schedule sets up for a run if we stay focused and take care of business. Hopefully, the A & M loss is the last turd in the punch bowl for the season and we take care of business.

 

[volfan199]

The Sagarin predictor gives us a 40 percent chance to win the game (it will probably rise some after tonight) and when you factor in Florida's performances on the road so far this season and in Knoxville the past decade, I would give that game a much better than 20 percent chance. I mean, 20 percent is VERY low. That's basically the odds Kentucky had against us in football this year. They have a much better chance then that. I definitely understand the reaction to losing against them by 26, but winning the return trip after that type of beatdown is not unprecedented. In fact, I believe Mizzou lost at Florida by 30 something last year and wound up beating them at home. On another note, here's what Sagarin's odds currently are for us in all of the February games. Aside from Florida, they're actually pretty close to the ones you gave.
2-1 Alabama 54%
2-5 Vanderbilt 64%
2-8 South Carolina 85%
2-11 Florida 40%
2-15 Missouri 43%
2-18 Georgia 84%
2-22 Texas A&M 68%
2-26 Mississippi St. 82%

 

[92volalum]

Why is everyone focused on the NCAA n not the sec. I mean shouldn't we hire a coach to win our conf.

Its nice to make the tourney but n reality no chance of winning it.. I think success should be your conf first then the tourney takes care of itself.

We are in a conf for a reason n that should be to win it.

Gbo

 

[SPRINGHILLVOL]

Thank heavens ole miss plays soft defense...team needs to keep thompson at point, great passer...when richardson scores 16 life is much better. Team played fast...stats for game: Field goal percentage 49 percent,3 point percentage 55, foul shots... 88 percentage..rebound advantage...45-27...they have to sweep alabama, vandy, south carolina..then florida...keys will be play of richardson, thompson, moore, and barton..moore was incredible defensively blocking shots...go vols

 

[calban]

Was his first winning record in January. 5-3.

 

[goldvol]

Tennessee can easily bump up their RPI plenty more the next month.

RPI: 82; RPI: 86; RPI: 144; RPI: 6; RPI: 46; RPI: 120; RPI: 138; RPI: 139

Ok, so the average RPI of the opponents you listed is 95. How can Tennessee easily bump their RPI? Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge. I'm not saying winning these games isn't good, because we need to hang on to where we are at, but the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Ok, so the average RPI of the opponents you listed is 95. How can Tennessee easily bump their RPI? Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge. I'm not saying winning these games isn't good, because we need to hang on to where we are at, but the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well.

Not true at all.

We got a good draw in that we play a lot of these RPI dwellers at their place. Why is this important?

If you look at the RPI formula, away games count more than home games. So for example, a win at home verse a good RPI team isn't nearly as much of a boost as a win over a good team on the road. The flip side of this is that when you lose to bad teams at home is really kills your RPI, see the massive drop we suffered after the A&M game.

So the good news is that, while Bama doesn't have a great record, because that game is on the road we would receive a nice little bump if we were to win, probably 7-8 spots.

 

[Mr. Lofton]

Ok, so the average RPI of the opponents you listed is 95. How can Tennessee easily bump their RPI? Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge. I'm not saying winning these games isn't good, because we need to hang on to where we are at, but the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well.

Agree - if you want the RPI to improve then you have to beat Florida otherwise your treading water.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Richardson's home/road splits are scary. He has to play well on the road. He can't no show. Maymon is doing a better job getting positioning and using his footwork. He's a strong motha****er, but he's learning to adjust without his explosiveness.

I noticed tonight we ran our first or second play for him. He hit it, and I pretty much said game over. When JRich is hitting and being aggressive it seems to translate to everyone else and we are a different team. Iirc we also ran a play for him our very first possession of the 2nd half, glad to see the coaches looking to keep him involved.

I would like to see something similar on the road, get him going early and he'll be around for 40 minutes.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

Nice breakdown. Using your numbers, and ronding to the nearest whole numbers, the expected number of Feb. win is 5 with a 95% confidence interval of (2, 7).

 

[goldvol]

Not true at all.

We got a good draw in that we play a lot of these RPI dwellers at their place. Why is this important?

If you look at the RPI formula, away games count more than home games. So for example, a win at home verse a good RPI team isn't nearly as much of a boost as a win over a good team on the road. The flip side of this is that when you lose to bad teams at home is really kills your RPI, see the massive drop we suffered after the A&M game.

So the good news is that, while Bama doesn't have a great record, because that game is on the road we would receive a nice little bump if we were to win, probably 7-8 spots.

Which part of my post is "Not true at all"??? I only made two statements that could be wrong. The first was taking the average of 8 numbers, and since I'm an engineer, I'm pretty sure I got this one right. The second statement I made was "the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well". This is true whether you like to admit it or not.

Almost half the teams near our RPI will be going on the road and playing average strength RPI's. So if they win their games, which they are equally likely to do, then we move minimally or not at all.

It is wrong to assume that our RPI automatically jumps based solely on our performance when we are playing mediocre teams. Beat Florida, and it jumps. Beat Bama, and hope that other teams around us underperform.

 

[VolGee4]

Which part of my post is "Not true at all"??? I only made two statements that could be wrong. The first was taking the average of 8 numbers, and since I'm an engineer, I'm pretty sure I got this one right. The second statement I made was "the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well". This is true whether you like to admit it or not.

Almost half the teams near our RPI will be going on the road and playing average strength RPI's. So if they win their games, which they are equally likely to do, then we move minimally or not at all.

It is wrong to assume that our RPI automatically jumps based solely on our performance when we are playing mediocre teams. Beat Florida, and it jumps. Beat Bama, and hope that other teams around us underperform.

While your statements may have been true, BTO's response was clarifying your statements. Kind of semantics. But, the RPI favors winning and from my experience with it, you don't necessarily have to beat high RPI teams. I have seen teams with a solid RPI who played a tough schedule but only beat the bad RPI teams. For instance, based on ESPN, BYU is 2 spots behind us. They are 12-9 overall and 3-5 against the Top 100. We are 12-7 overall and 6-5 against the Top 100. BYU doesn't have a Top 25 win while we do. But because their SOS is high, then they are only 2 behind us. This is why the RPI is garbage, but it is what it is.

Also, most of these teams play each other, so teams have to lose. We don't have to beat UF to get in. Just beat most everyone else, and we will be fine.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Which part of my post is "Not true at all"??? I only made two statements that could be wrong. The first was taking the average of 8 numbers, and since I'm an engineer, I'm pretty sure I got this one right. The second statement I made was "the only way we go up in RPI is to win AND other teams around us do poorly as well". This is true whether you like to admit it or not.

This is the statement you made which is wrong..."Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge."

Since you're apparently an engineer, take a look at the RPI formula and you'll understand why this statement is inaccurate.

Almost half the teams near our RPI will be going on the road and playing average strength RPI's. So if they win their games, which they are equally likely to do, then we move minimally or not at all.

You think the majority of teams in our RPI range are going to win 7 of their next 8 games? That's highly unlikely, and where your misunderstanding of the situation is.

It is wrong to assume that our RPI automatically jumps based solely on our performance when we are playing mediocre teams. Beat Florida, and it jumps. Beat Bama, and hope that other teams around us underperform.

Did our RPI jump last night? Did our RPI jump when we beat auburn? Once again, it's not an assumption, and it's not reliant on what other teams do, beat Alabama and our RPI will improve, I GUARANTEE IT.

 

[Goldencuonzohut]

Joe lunardi bumped us up to a 10 seed rpi is 48

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Joe lunardi bumped us up to a 10 seed rpi is 48

That's hogwash

 

[goldvol]

This is the statement you made which is wrong..."Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge."

If that is the only statement that I made that is wrong, then saying my post is "Not true at all" is hyperbole.

Since you're apparently an engineer, take a look at the RPI formula and you'll understand why this statement is inaccurate.

Assuming that you are the one that knows most how the baskebtall RPI formula works, and that you feel the need to teach all of us novice fans on the intricacies, shows your arrogance.

You think the majority of teams in our RPI range are going to win 7 of their next 8 games? That's highly unlikely, and where your misunderstanding of the situation is.

I am not misunderstanding the situation. My statement said that other teams near our RPI will fair equally as well against opponents of similar RPI's. I have taken that into consideration.

Did our RPI jump last night? .

When the teams that are close to our RPI that did not play play their games tonight and tomorrow, guess what, other teams RPI's increase as well. Taking the difference in RPI directly after a win is misleading, becaue it doesn't account for the teams that will play in the next few days.

Did our RPI jump when we beat auburn? Once again, it's not an assumption, and it's not reliant on what other teams do, beat Alabama and our RPI will improve, I GUARANTEE IT.

Yes, and I guarentee that our team is not the only team that will win games and improve RPI. If everyone around us does equally as well as us, then our RPI does not move.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

If that is the only statement that I made that is wrong, then saying my post is "Not true at all" is hyperbole.

I didn't know I had to specify which part was wrong. I said "not true at all", part of your post wasn't true, I figured you knew which part was off base.

Assuming that you are the one that knows most how the baskebtall RPI formula works, and that you feel the need to teach all of us novice fans on the intricacies, shows your arrogance.

Arrogance? Because I was pointing out the inaccuracy in your post? So instead I should just let it go so that other people assume your post is entirely accurate and end up with a misunderstanding of how the RPI works. Are you that sensitive?

I am not misunderstanding the situation. My statement said that other teams near our RPI will fair equally as well against opponents of similar RPI's. I have taken that into consideration.



When the teams that are close to our RPI that did not play play their games tonight and tomorrow, guess what, other teams RPI's increase as well. Taking the difference in RPI directly after a win is misleading, becaue it doesn't account for the team that will in the next few days.



Yes, and I guarentee that our team is not the only team that will win games and improve RPI. If everyone around us does equally as well as us, then our RPI does not move.

So like I said, you're telling me that every team around us is going to go 7 of 8? That's highly unlikely, especially since most of those teams play each other.

 

[goldvol]

I didn't know I had to specify which part was wrong. I said "not true at all", part of your post wasn't true, I figured you knew which part was off base.





Arrogance? Because I was pointing out the inaccuracy in your post? So instead I should just let it go so that other people assume your post is entirely accurate and end up with a misunderstanding of how the RPI works. Are you that sensitive?

Yes

So like I said, you're telling me that every team around us is going to go 7 of 8? That's highly unlikely, especially since most of those teams play each other.

You think we are going to win 7 out of 8? You must have missed the post where OldandStillaVol did the statistical analysis showing the expected number of wins was 5 games within 95% confidence. I am not saying how many games other teams will win. I am saying that other like teams playing other like opponents will have statistically similar results. If other teams perform as well as Tennessee performs, then our RPI does not increase. So again, my hope is that Tennessee wins as much as possible (2% chance they win all 8) and I hope that other teams statistically underperform, because the RPI formula that you like to talk about also applies to them.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

You think we are going to win 7 out of 8? You must have missed the post where OldandStillaVol did the statistical analysis showing the expected number of wins was 5 games within 95% confidence. I am not saying how many games other teams will win. I am saying that other like teams playing other like opponents will have statistically similar results. If other teams perform as well as Tennessee performs, then our RPI does not increase. So again, my hope is that Tennessee wins as much as possible (2% chance they win all 8) and I hope that other teams statistically underperform, because the RPI formula that you like to talk about also applies to them.

Here's your quote, not the bolded...

Saying "win these games" doesn't work, because even if we win 7 out of 8, our RPI probably doesn't budge.

You're saying, if we win 7 of 8 RPI doesn't budge. Your reasoning you've gone on to say is that other teams around is will fair equally as well, thus improving their RPI as well. Not everyone around us is going to win 7 of 8, that's been my point since post 1.

Obviously if we go 5 of 8 our RPI isn't gonna improve, but if we go 7 of 8 it will definitely improve.

 

[goldvol]

Here's your quote, not the bolded...




You're saying, if we win 7 of 8 RPI doesn't budge. Your reasoning you've gone on to say is that other teams around is will fair equally as well, thus improving their RPI as well. Not everyone around us is going to win 7 of 8, that's been my point since post 1.

Obviously if we go 5 of 8 our RPI isn't gonna improve, but if we go 7 of 8 it will definitely improve.

"My point since post 1" is that winning games alone does not increase RPI compared to teams around you, no matter what your formula is telling you. Again, my hope is that Tennessee wins all their games, and the teams that our around us underperform, which will give us a boost in our ratings. Assuming that winning games alone will improve our RPI in relation to other teams near our RPI is wrong. We have to win and have other teams lose to improve our RPI.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

"My point since post 1" is that winning games alone does not increase RPI compared to teams around you, no matter what your formula is telling you. Again, my hope is that Tennessee wins all their games, and the teams that our around us underperform, which will give us a boost in our ratings. Assuming that winning games alone will improve our RPI in relation to other teams near our RPI is wrong. We have to win and have other teams lose to improve our RPI.

If not playing better teams, then we need to win more than the teams around us do.

You said win 7 of 8 and our RPI won't improve, that's incorrect, like I said in the first post.

 

[utvolz98]

100 level tickets are still available for most home games, including Florida. Pick some up, be there, loud and proud. Especially for the Florida game. It's not impossible. Let's make the crowd a factor.