BTO’s Mississippi State Postgame Report

#81
#81
vol94 said:
Thanks, so most likely he will play next yr then try to play over seas or a shot at nba
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Maybe. Who really knows. I find predicting what happens with JJJ really hard. He's one of the most efficient defenders in all of college basketball, and his offense is starting to come around. If that continues the rest of the season, he might start climbing draft boards for this next draft. If not, he probably comes back another year.

It's probably unlikely we get 2 more years of him, but it sure would be nice.
 
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#82
#82
Off topic but listened to someone taken TN basketball. It may have been Packer on his Sirrius afternoon show. He was talking about the Vols and said Chandler is almost 100% sure he is NBA bound regardless of first or second round as he will get a NBA contract.

He Also said that the Vols lack the players w speed that can run up tempo with Chandler, which is what the NBA will give him. Interesting take.
 
#83
#83
OrangeBeachVol said:
Barnes now has them playing a really good half-court offense. More passing - less dribbling. One announcer even said last night on one possession they made 5 passes in the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock. Fining open shooters in almost every possession now. Other than that one drought in 1st half there were very efficient.
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More movement without the ball also.
 
#85
#85
Thunder Good-Oil said:
TN has less than a 5% chance of winning out, but it’s one game at a time and I think I’ve read that TN is favored in each game.
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BPI Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a better than 50% chance to win each one of its remaining games. UK being the lowest percentage chance to win, and it is still 58.8% probability.
 
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#86
#86
Doctrippin said:
Razorbacks are a bigger concern right now. They are peaking at the right time
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I disagree. They're peaking at the right time, yes, but their schedule is also tougher than ours down the stretch and we have a pretty tough schedule.

TN "Tough" Games:
Arky, Arky (Away), Kentucky, Auburn

TN "Easy" Games:
Vandy, Mizou (Away), Georgia (Away)

Arky "Tough" Games:
Tenn, Tenn (Away), Kentucky, Alabama (Away)

Arky "Easy" Games:
Florida (Away), LSU, Mizzou (Away)

I split them up into four categories just for simplicity purposes. I would argue our two "tough" pods are almost identical. I think Arkansas clearly has a much tougher "easy" pod. Arkansas is hot, but I just cannot imagine they can keep this pace up the rest of the way.
 
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#88
#88
Thunder Good-Oil said:
One at a time. Even Vanderbilt better not be dismissed. They are playing very well right now.
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Absolutely. Totally agree. I don't thing we finish 7-0 by any stretch of the imagination. Just addressing your comment with context of where that info came from.
 
#89
#89
TheMookieMonster said:
I disagree. They're peaking at the right time, yes, but their schedule is also tougher than ours down the stretch and we have a pretty tough schedule.

TN "Tough" Games:
Arky, Arky (Away), Kentucky, Auburn

TN "Easy" Games:
Vandy, Mizou (Away), Georgia (Away)

Arky "Tough" Games:
Tenn, Tenn (Away), Kentucky, Alabama (Away)

Arky "Easy" Games:
Florida (Away), LSU, Mizzou (Away)

I split them up into four categories just for simplicity purposes. I would argue our two "tough" pods are almost identical. I think Arkansas clearly has a much tougher "easy" pod. Arkansas is hot, but I just cannot imagine they can keep this pace up the rest of the way.
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I like how TN’s schedule falls by going to Fayetteville first. I would rather go there first with less pressure and nothing to lose. If TN were to beat the Hogs first at the TBA, Bud Walton would be off the charts crazy looking for revenge in the rematch.
 
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#90
#90
cncchris33 said:
Absolutely. Totally agree. I don't thing we finish 7-0 by any stretch of the imagination. Just addressing your comment with context of where that info came from.
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I’m a realist and know that under 5% is a slim chance mathematically of going 7-0. But I can dream until the championship is out of reach.
 
#91
#91
cncchris33 said:
BPI Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a better than 50% chance to win each one of its remaining games. UK being the lowest percentage chance to win, and it is still 58.8% probability.
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I learned awhile back their formula is whacky or something…@Ark is a toss up by just about every metric. Same for UK and Auburn
 
#94
#94
bleedingTNorange said:
1. What a freaking dub!!!!! I may be in the minority but this is a game the last day or two I’ve been REALLY excited for, the importance of it as kind of a swing game was huge, how we’d look without ON added intrigue, we’re hitting mid-February and playing a conference opponent we are competing for seeding with, I was pumped up and locked in for this game and I’m glad it didn’t disappoint. Great showing from our Vols, they found a way to get it done, first Q1 road win of the year, first loss at home for State, what a W.

2. Josiah James is no longer an offensive liability, I was one of the first to say hold on just a second on his shot, and pointed out how well he shots over 4/5/6/7/ games etc…well now he’s just doing it consistently enough to say this is who he is going to be. Tonight plays 37m 18pts 7-12fg 3-6 from 3 to raise his average well over 40% the last 9 games…and continues to be an elite level defender, it’s not a coincidence that the offense has started to come alive around the same time JJJ has found his offensive game.

3. Speaking of offense, Tennessee threw up an offensive rating of 113.8, their 3rd game in a row showing a much improved offense and continuing their climb toward a top 25 offense. Their early season numbers will drag them down but of late this offense is really playing so well, tonight shooting 42% from 3 and 89% from the FT line while only turning it over 10 times. Vescovi, Zeigler, James, Powell are all looking like 40%+ shooters from the outside right now…that is scary for opposing teams.

4. It was nice to see some of Aidoo, and makes you excited for his future…but it was also nice to see BHH start out involved and scoring, and again excited for his future….however, I don’t have the final numbers yet, but our small ball lineup continues to be what produces. I’m gonna guess that small ball lineups were around +12 tonight, while big lineups were -3…now I get it, foul trouble dictates things and ZZ was in foul trouble first half and Powell just wasn’t effective tonight…and the 2 post lineup started the game super hot…but around 8 minutes we brought Zeigler back in in a tie game and we played small almost entirely the rest of the way as we closed the game up. I’m not sure if Barnes will make the move, probably not, but our small ball lineup is our best, no questions asked.

5. Zeigler, Chandler & Vescovi are just so damn fun to watch play basketball…ZZ & KC combined for 10 steals, that is bonkers…Vescovi had 7 assists and just 1 turnover with the quietest 11 points I’ve seen in awhile, but a monster 3 down the stretch. I’m hopeful for some blowouts because it would be nice to get those guys some rest, 37 minutes for SV and JJ tonight, 34 for Chandler, Barnes is gonna ride those guys as much as he can…first half if we got a lead or it’s close he’ll try to buy them minutes, which I’m not the biggest fan of, I think there’s a better strategy, but down the stretch those guys along with JJJ are gonna be who decide how far we go.

6. Big picture? You wanna talk big picture?! Tonight this is my favorite part, that win was massive (but please dear god don’t give it away by losing to Vandy)…you change the narrative a bit tonight. You almost certainly lock up a Top 4 SEC seed tonight which means double bye, but you also now move from 21-9(12-6) being the most likely outcome to now 22-8(13-5) being the most likely, which means we also raised our seed line floor, a Q1 road win is huge!!! I said entering this 4 game stretch 3-1 would be expected or what we needed, and that 4-0 would build some momentum, well we are 3-0 with a home game upcoming against Vandy, cmon boys!!! Win that one and the game next Tuesday becomes HUUUUGE, our Vols have been good at home and hopefully we can win the next 2 at TBA and blow the lid off this Mf’er.



GBO!!!!!
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I've been saying that this game was an enormous game, but I didn't realize it was a Q1 win. Thanks for that info. Frankly I wasn't too sure we would pull it off especially without Nkamhoua and especially when our lead vanished. I was wrong and I am so glad I was.

Agreed, we cannot get cocky and lose to Vandy. We have a very tough schedule ahead of us. I think we probably get 20 wins, but I'm not giving us more than that. Not saying we won't, but even 20 means we most likely beat Georgia and Missouri on the road. Anything more than 20 means we either beat Arkansas, Kentucky or Auburn as well.

All that said, I would love for ESPN and you to be right about all these upcoming games and me be WRONG lol
 
#95
#95
BruisedOrange said:
I think Uros contributed more than we are crediting to him (according to ESPN's stat sheet).

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There's a huge difference between the 4 points Uros gave us and the 4 points Fulky have us. Fulky is just so much better on defense than Uros, and he's a big reason that the small ball lineup is so effective.

To be fair, all of them need to give us more than they are giving us right now.
 
#96
#96
Our half court offense our level of play has improved so much post the Texas loss, it is like we are a different team. Glad to finally see it. The last 3 game stretch we are averaging over 80 per game. Now of course A&M, South Carolina and Miss. State aren’t the best of the best and none are tournament teams but we have taken care of business. Finish off Vandy this weekend who seems to playing better themselves and the measuring stick game against Kentucky arrives.

Losing Nkamhoua for the year hurts our upside overall, but it is nice to see our team look like they are at least enjoying the game now. Ziegler is turning into our closer, James has shockingly found a mid-range game and is more aggressive offensively, and while it is hard to quantify despite some unimpressive stat lines Plavsic (while committing some stupid fouls) does bring a bit of an attitude which I think carries over to others.
 
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#97
#97
cncchris33 said:
BPI Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a better than 50% chance to win each one of its remaining games. UK being the lowest percentage chance to win, and it is still 58.8% probability.
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I just don’t see how we’d have a better than 50% chance in Bud Walton.
 
#98
#98
GregAmsler said:
I just don’t see how we’d have a better than 50% chance in Bud Walton.
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Again, I'm not saying we do. And I'm not saying we are going 7-0 to finish, either. I'm just telling you what the Matchup Predictor says. It says we have a 61.9% chance of going into Bud Walton arena and beating Arkansas. I'm not sure what it takes into account to arrive at that conclusion. I'm with you, though. It seems far-fetched, but some bean counter has arrived at that mathematical conclusion, somehow.
 
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#99
#99
cncchris33 said:
Again, I'm not saying we do. And I'm not saying we are going 7-0 to finish, either. I'm just telling you what the Matchup Predictor says. It says we have a 61.9% chance of going into Bud Walton arena and beating Arkansas. I'm not sure what it takes into account to arrive at that conclusion. I'm with you, though. It seems far-fetched, but some bean counter has arrived at that mathematical conclusion, somehow.
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Kenpom actually has us beating Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas(away) all by nearly identical scores (71-69 or 71-70). Bart Torvik has us losing by 1 to Arkansas(away), but winning the other 2. It would be amazing to get 2 of those.
 
#100
#100
wtmvol said:
Kenpom actually has us beating Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas(away) all by nearly identical scores (71-69 or 71-70). Bart Torvik has us losing by 1 to Arkansas(away), but winning the other 2. It would be amazing to get 2 of those.
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Winning 2 out of those 3 likely pushes our ceiling up to a 2-seed and our floor a 4-seed. Just don't slip up against the bottom feeders and you're well-positioned for a great Selection Sunday.
 
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