BTO’s Mississippi State Postgame Report

[bleedingTNorange]

1. Tough loss, always sucks extra to fight back in a game and get all the way back and then not ultimately get the job done. Hopefully a lesson to the team about how hard you make things on yourself digging a hole like that, especially on the road in conference play, have to come out ready to play better than that. Big picture it’s not a hurting loss, but when you saw the rough first half it definitely hurts worse than it is in reality, still though, I don’t think it’s something worth freaking out over.

2. Continuing that thought, #1, #2, #3, #5 & #9 have all lost on the road to unranked teams in the last 2 days…this is college basketball, it happens, we aren’t any different than the other top teams in the country. Does it suck still, absolutely, especially when you consider those losses around us and how we could’ve benefited from not joining that group, but again that is college basketball…losses to unranked teams, especially on the road in conference play will happen. Add to that it was a Q1 game for us and we still are 1 of few teams that can say their only losses are of the Q1 variety.

3. As has been mentioned both on the board and from media members, and Barnes postgame as well, there’s an alarming trend in our losses…the opposing team has a very good big man and that causes us serious issues on both ends. Now I could make a case that we’ve likely played 4 of the top 10 big men in the country to this point so yes, they are very good players, but at the same time it worries you about potentially drawing a dominant big man in the dance, definitely something to watch imo. Now with that said you’d rather find these things out now and learn those lessons now than in March, so we’ve got a chance to correct some things. While obviously Aidoo & Awaka being better would help, something I would consider is some minutes for JJJ at the 5. Our uptempo and pressing was effective and could’ve been more so with that lineup, Tolu Smith was easily getting winded and him having to chase around JJJ on the opposing end would’ve only made it worse on him. Sure you’re giving up something on the defensive end but we were already getting killed there, couldn’t be much worse, double him with smaller guys on the catch and then rotate with your all guard lineup if he kicks out for 3. Again it’s not something you can probably do for 40 minutes, but I would’ve liked to see them try it and will be curious if it’s a move going forward…look at FDU against Purdue last year, super small and yea they gave up some Edey dunks, but they also caused him some major issues.

4. Great to see Dalton Knecht looking like the version of himself we all saw early in the year and at UNC. He’s struggled against physical play and hard to think tonight wasn’t the most physical game of the year, and he shined, great to see. He also once again wanted the ball in big moments for big shots as we were mounting our comeback and that’s great to see as well. Zeigler was also dominant, he looked even better than he has all year and continues to raise his game to a level I’m not sure we’ve ever seen from him, that’s obviously a great sign. Disappointing showing from your veterans in Vescovi & JJJ, those guys can’t disappear like they did…not sure what was up with Santi but his shot looked awful after having looked like it was trending up, he needs fixed and NOW.

5. Again big picture that loss isn’t an issue, it’s when you had to watch that first half and some of the trends coming out of it that cause some concern, but again it’s about what they do from here. Kenpom had Tennessee as less than a 50% chance of winning these 2 road games, so it’s not a surprise and doesn’t really change the narrative of the season at this point if you get the win Saturday against Georgia., then it’s home for a stretch and you hope you can hold serve at home. Barttorvik still projects 23-8(13-5) so they also don’t change based off that outcome, again go and get that win on the road Saturday. We talked about trying to go 7-2 or better in the first 9, they’re 1-1, win the next one and that is still very much on the table.



GBO!!!

 

[Orangeblooded615]

Offense went cold again too. That and facing a dominant big man will stop this team in March. Zeig is stepping up it seems though. Hopefully Scovi and JJJ get more consistent.

 

[chuckiepoo]

1. Tough loss, always sucks extra to fight back in a game and get all the way back and then not ultimately get the job done. Hopefully a lesson to the team about how hard you make things on yourself digging a hole like that, especially on the road in conference play, have to come out ready to play better than that. Big picture it’s not a hurting loss, but when you saw the rough first half it definitely hurts worse than it is in reality, still though, I don’t think it’s something worth freaking out over.

2. Continuing that thought, #1, #2, #3, #5 & #9 have all lost on the road to unranked teams in the last 2 days…this is college basketball, it happens, we aren’t any different than the other top teams in the country. Does it suck still, absolutely, especially when you consider those losses around us and how we could’ve benefited from not joining that group, but again that is college basketball…losses to unranked teams, especially on the road in conference play will happen. Add to that it was a Q1 game for us and we still are 1 of few teams that can say their only losses are of the Q1 variety.

3. As has been mentioned both on the board and from media members, and Barnes postgame as well, there’s an alarming trend in our losses…the opposing team has a very good big man and that causes us serious issues on both ends. Now I could make a case that we’ve likely played 4 of the top 10 big men in the country to this point so yes, they are very good players, but at the same time it worries you about potentially drawing a dominant big man in the dance, definitely something to watch imo. Now with that said you’d rather find these things out now and learn those lessons now than in March, so we’ve got a chance to correct some things. While obviously Aidoo & Awaka being better would help, something I would consider is some minutes for JJJ at the 5. Our uptempo and pressing was effective and could’ve been more so with that lineup, Tolu Smith was easily getting winded and him having to chase around JJJ on the opposing end would’ve only made it worse on him. Sure you’re giving up something on the defensive end but we were already getting killed there, couldn’t be much worse, double him with smaller guys on the catch and then rotate with your all guard lineup if he kicks out for 3. Again it’s not something you can probably do for 40 minutes, but I would’ve liked to see them try it and will be curious if it’s a move going forward…look at FDU against Purdue last year, super small and yea they gave up some Edey dunks, but they also caused him some major issues.

4. Great to see Dalton Knecht looking like the version of himself we all saw early in the year and at UNC. He’s struggled against physical play and hard to think tonight wasn’t the most physical game of the year, and he shined, great to see. He also once again wanted the ball in big moments for big shots as we were mounting our comeback and that’s great to see as well. Zeigler was also dominant, he looked even better than he has all year and continues to raise his game to a level I’m not sure we’ve ever seen from him, that’s obviously a great sign. Disappointing showing from your veterans in Vescovi & JJJ, those guys can’t disappear like they did…not sure what was up with Santi but his shot looked awful after having looked like it was trending up, he needs fixed and NOW.

5. Again big picture that loss isn’t an issue, it’s when you had to watch that first half and some of the trends coming out of it that cause some concern, but again it’s about what they do from here. Kenpom had Tennessee as less than a 50% chance of winning these 2 road games, so it’s not a surprise and doesn’t really change the narrative of the season at this point if you get the win Saturday against Georgia., then it’s home for a stretch and you hope you can hold serve at home. Barttorvik still projects 23-8(13-5) so they also don’t change based off that outcome, again go and get that win on the road Saturday. We talked about trying to go 7-2 or better in the first 9, they’re 1-1, win the next one and that is still very much on the table.



GBO!!!

Return to center. Thanks bTo.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Yep good write-up as always. I get that Barnes wants to play 4 guards and a big, but it's not worked in matchups where the opposing team has a good big man. Last season we had 2 additional bigs that saw minutes (Uros and ON)...I'd like to see JP or Cade get more minutes to help in these games, something Barnes can do I think to help. JP has more length than Awaka, but is stronger than Aidoo maybe he could have had an impact last night...who knows. Frustrating he didn't get any minutes to at least see if he could. Cade is a high effort guy he might have been able to help double Tolu better than our guards did.

Point 1 is the big one though, we're a good team but we're not a great team and digging double digit holes isn't going to win us any games especially on the road.

 

[berryvol]

All around good write up as usual, not much to add. I will say, during these slumps I’ve noticed both Santi and Gainey seem to have a bit of a hitch in their jumpers. It seems obvious to me that both are very much overthinking it, especially on the wide open ones. I’d love to see Santi just take a few contested threes in rhythm early in the next few games to see if he can get himself going. Sometimes those uncontested jumpers can be tougher, especially when you’re in a slump and feel more pressure to see the easy ones go in.

 

[CBVols]

Would have liked to see us double down on Smith more often. As long as you didn't leave Hubbard open. He was 5-10 from three while the rest of the team was 1-8.

Also can't have 16 TO vs 12 assists

Nice write up Thanks BTO

 

[berryvol]

Yep good write-up as always. I get that Barnes wants to play 4 guards and a big, but it's not worked in matchups where the opposing team has a good big man. Last season we had 2 additional bigs that saw minutes (Uros and ON)...I'd like to see JP or Cade get more minutes to help in these games, something Barnes can do I think to help. JP has more length than Awaka, but is stronger than Aidoo maybe he could have had an impact last night...who knows. Frustrating he didn't get any minutes to at least see if he could. Cade is a high effort guy he might have been able to help double Tolu better than our guards did.

Point 1 is the big one though, we're a good team but we're not a great team and digging double digit holes isn't going to win us any games especially on the road.

JP has got to play more in these games. We all saw how easy it was for both our bigs to foul out in regulation time. JP has proven he can bang a bit, there’s absolutely no risk in sending him in for 3-5 mins, even if it’s just to eat a few fouls.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Yep good write-up as always. I get that Barnes wants to play 4 guards and a big, but it's not worked in matchups where the opposing team has a good big man. Last season we had 2 additional bigs that saw minutes (Uros and ON)...I'd like to see JP or Cade get more minutes to help in these games, something Barnes can do I think to help. JP has more length than Awaka, but is stronger than Aidoo maybe he could have had an impact last night...who knows. Frustrating he didn't get any minutes to at least see if he could. Cade is a high effort guy he might have been able to help double Tolu better than our guards did.

Point 1 is the big one though, we're a good team but we're not a great team and digging double digit holes isn't going to win us any games especially on the road.

Not sure JP has shown anything to think he could’ve gotten it done, maybe you try but I just have a hard time thinking he’s done anything to make anyone think he’s a better defender than Awaka or Aidoo.

So who qualifies as a great team in your opinion, if we are eliminating all teams who have losses to unranked teams?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Offense went cold again too. That and facing a dominant big man will stop this team in March. Zeig is stepping up it seems though. Hopefully Scovi and JJJ get more consistent.

I’ll actually say defense was a bigger reason we lost that game than offense

 

[berryvol]

Not sure JP has shown anything to think he could’ve gotten it done, maybe you try but I just have a hard time thinking he’s done anything to make anyone think he’s a better defender than Awaka or Aidoo.

So who qualifies as a great team in your opinion, if we are eliminating all teams who have losses to unranked teams?

Not saying that JP has necessarily proven more, but when Aidoo is getting worked like he was, I see it as zero risk to toss JP out there. Worst case he takes a foul or two away from your other bigs in that span. He literally couldn’t have gotten beat worse than Aidoo around the basket.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Not sure JP has shown anything to think he could’ve gotten it done, maybe you try but I just have a hard time thinking he’s done anything to make anyone think he’s a better defender than Awaka or Aidoo.

So who qualifies as a great team in your opinion, if we are eliminating all teams who have losses to unranked teams?

I've not watched enough of the rest of the field to really say I've seen a great team. But it's also January 11th, lots of ball left to be played. UConn probably has the best resume, 2 losses and both were true road games. The worst being at Seton Hall.

 

[joevols89]

JP probably would’ve gotten beat too (off the dribble). But it may have been worth a shot since he has the bulk Aidoo is missing and the length Awaka is missing.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

If nothing else JP getting 5-6 minutes and eating 2 or 3 of the fouls Aidoo/Awaka picked up would have meant down the stretch they could have been on the court.

Mississippi State only scored 77, but as bTo pointed out that was really a game lost on defense. Our offensive rating per 100 was 101.4, but MSU had 108.5 for theirs. We cannot beat any teams that shoot 50% from the field against us, especially when they're taking 27 shots from the line.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Not saying that JP has necessarily proven more, but when Aidoo is getting worked like he was, I see it as zero risk to toss JP out there. Worst case he takes a foul or two away from your other bigs in that span. He literally couldn’t have gotten beat worse than Aidoo around the basket.

Could’ve hurt confidence though…I’m with you that it could’ve saved fouls, but we didn’t have an issue until the final possession of the game as far as someone fouling out. Personally I’d have rather seen JJJ at the 5 for 3-5 minutes before seeing JP there.

 

[chuckb1448]

They allowed State to knock Tennessee's teeth out in the first half, seriously I'm biased but this was ridiculous. Didn't help that we couldn't hit anything either. I hate losing to thugs but its where we are

 

[berryvol]

Could’ve hurt confidence though…I’m with you that it could’ve saved fouls, but we didn’t have an issue until the final possession of the game as far as someone fouling out. Personally I’d have rather seen JJJ at the 5 for 3-5 minutes before seeing JP there.

Yeah I’m fine tossing JJJ down there, especially because that would be more of a new look change that could’ve given us an edge.


On the foul front, while we didn’t have anyone foul out until the final possession, Awaka had to sit a big portion of the second half due to fouls (and he was defending/rebounding much better than Aidoo, imo). If Awaka can play more down the bc Estrella or JJJ can draw a few of those fouls earlier in his stead, that’s a good thing.

 

[cncchris33]

Would have liked to see us double down on Smith more often. As long as you didn't leave Hubbard open. He was 5-10 from three while the rest of the team was 1-8.

Also can't have 16 TO vs 12 assists

Nice write up Thanks BTO

I think the doubling the post would have been effective IF the one guy you said you couldn't leave open was Hubbard. The rest of their team was 1-8 from 3. In other words, whoever was guarding him should never leave him to double, but anyone else could and then ake someone else beat you from the perimeter. That probably ends up looking like a box-and-1 but with man principles.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I've not watched enough of the rest of the field to really say I've seen a great team. But it's also January 11th, lots of ball left to be played. UConn probably has the best resume, 2 losses and both were true road games. The worst being at Seton Hall.

Seton Hall is #68 on KenPom, their other loss is to #19 Kansas. We have losses to #3, #10, #19 & #24….both teams not having lost at home. They gave 1 Top 20 KP win, we have 2. Not disputing that they’re a good team, I just find the overlooking of their resume when comparing it to ours a bit ironic.

 

[pimo1]

We have to find a third big man be it Estrella or someone else that can give us 5-10 mins in the post when we have these types of games. Once Aidoo fouled out and Awaka got his 4th it was basically game over. Lets say we forced OT we literally wouldnt have a post. This is something we seriously gotta get sorted in the offseason. I agree with BTO this loss is not a big deal but it shows unless we find a way to mitigate we are one bad matchup away from booted from the tourney.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Yeah I’m fine tossing JJJ down there, especially because that would be more of a new look change that could’ve given us an edge.


On the foul front, while we didn’t have anyone foul out until the final possession, Awaka had to sit a big portion of the second half due to fouls (and he was defending/rebounding much better than Aidoo, imo). If Awaka can play more down the bc Estrella or JJJ can draw a few of those fouls earlier in his stead, that’s a good thing.

It seemed the staff preferred to put Aidoo out there on him, but regardless you were able to juggle those 2 until the final seconds. No offense but we shouldn’t be having both our big men fouling out in 20 minutes lol.

 

[Lefteye]

Almost a carbon copy of the Houston v Iowa St game. Houston struggled to score in the first half and fought back in the 2nd just to lose it at the end. Tough game to watch but they happen. I'm gonna continue to hope this is the squad that figures things out in Feb and March and can maintain consistent offensive output while still being a stingy defense.

 

[cncchris33]

Almost a carbon copy of the Houston v Iowa St game. Houston struggled to score in the first half and fought back in the 2nd just to lose it at the end. Tough game to watch but they happen. I'm gonna continue to hope this is the squad that figures things out in Feb and March and can maintain consistent offensive output while still being a stingy defense.

FWIW, 2 of the 3 ESPN analysts who picked Tennessee for the F4 still kept them in their F4 in their mid-season updates. And the third said he struggled to leave them out.

This year, as much as any, may be defined by matchups. If we get seeded in a region with a dominant big man, we may not reach that goal of a F4 just because we don't match up well in that one aspect. We've yet to figure out how to defend/exploit that, so we have to figure it out in the next two months or come to grips with the idea that it could seal our fate.

 

[cardvolfan]

JP probably would’ve gotten beat too (off the dribble). But it may have been worth a shot since he has the bulk Aidoo is missing and the length Awaka is missing.

I agree with what you said about JP, but both weigh the same.

 

[berryvol]

It seemed the staff preferred to put Aidoo out there on him, but regardless you were able to juggle those 2 until the final seconds. No offense but we shouldn’t be having both our big men fouling out in 20 minutes lol.

Oh I totally agree with your last sentence. Awaka is just a foul machine and I’d argue that’s where he needs to improve most over the course of this season. He can’t pick up the dumb ones off the ball/reaching after rebounds/etc if we want to rely on him for a full game. That combined with Tolu being the perfect big man at creating contact and the refs having a tough whistle at times, combined for the perfect recipe of foul trouble last night. Hopefully just a one off.

 

[berryvol]

FWIW, 2 of the 3 ESPN analysts who picked Tennessee for the F4 still kept them in their F4 in their mid-season updates. And the third said he struggled to leave them out.

This year, as much as any, may be defined by matchups. If we get seeded in a region with a dominant big man, we may not reach that goal of a F4 just because we don't match up well in that one aspect. We've yet to figure out how to defend/exploit that, so we have to figure it out in the next two months or come to grips with the idea that it could seal our fate.

So glad we have a history of getting favorable matchups and bounces in the tournament