Although they finished 1-3 for their last four games up to the loss to MSU, 2 of those were Vandy and Kentucky and the other was UGA, at UGA. The loss to Georgia was by 2 points, the loss to Vandy only 4 points.
The Gators went 7-1 against the SEC West. It is hard to imagine placing MSU in ahead of them for an at large bid. But if MSU wins today, then obviously the window is closed even a little bit more.
I think UF is as on the edge as it gets and it could well come down to a coin flip as between them and a few other teams. If they don't make it in, they have no one to blame but themselves and their continued lack of defense and reliance on the 3.