Butch Jones - An Analysis

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KingNick865

KingNick865

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Butch Jones is Tennessee's new football coach, and that in and of itself, seems to have caused quite a stir around the community and the fanbase, and maybe not in a good way. There were those so disappointed with the hire that they vowed to not give another cent until Hart and Cheek are fired, which I certainly understand. I think most fans expected a better coach out of this search than Butch Jones, as did I. However, since he is here, I felt that I should further look into his career, and see what numbers and facts can tell us to expect from him in the future.

Can he recruit?

That is probably the number one question right now concerning him as of right now. Tennessee needs talent, and it needs it in a bad way.

When looking at his classes from Cincinnati, I found something very promising. He is the best recruiter that that school has ever had, and that is backed up in the average Rivals star rating for his three classes, which is a 2.86. For comparison, the long term average for Cincy's program is a mere 2.24. When compared to each other, Jones has recruited 28% above the average at that school. For a longer term comparison between him and the other coaches at that school, here is every class that Cincinnati has had since Rivals started publishing class rankings in 2002.

2013 - 2.80 (Butch Jones)
2012 - 2.86 (Butch Jones)
2011 - 2.92 (Butch Jones)
2010 - 2.55 (Brian Kelly)
2009 - 2.48 (Brian Kelly)
2008 - 2.25 (Brian Kelly)
2007 - 2.26 (Mark Dantonio)
2006 - 1.95 (Mark Dantonio)
2005 - 2.04 (Mark Dantonio)
2004 - 2.06 (Rick Minter)
2003 - 2.04 (Rick Minter)
2002 - 0.70 (Rick Minter)

Now, at Central Michigan, Jones is still an above average recruiter, just not by much. When comparing the average rating of his classes at Central Michigan (which is a 2.14), to the program average (which is a 2.11), Jones' average at Central Michigan has been only 2% above the long term average of the school. Again, here is every class Central Michigan has signed going back to 2002.

2013 - 2.43 (Dan Enos)
2012 - 2.22 (Dan Enos)
2011 - 2.15 (Dan Enos)
2010 - 2.15 (Butch Jones)
2009 - 2.23 (Butch Jones)
2008 - 2.05 (Butch Jones)
2007 - 1.94 (Brian Kelly)
2006 - 2.00 (Brian Kelly)
2005 - 2.04 (Brian Kelly)
2004 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)
2003 - 2.11 (Mike DeBord)
2002 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)

If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed something real promising. Butch Jones has out-recruited Brian Kelly at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Now, the one thing I could see somebody saying is, "Yeah, but Brian Kelly set the foundation," which is certainly an argument with merit. However, I believe that ignores the fact that his recruiting has been better than Kelly's, not merely the same. Thus, I believe we can conclude that Jones certainly can recruit if surrounded by resources such as Tennessee.

Is he a good gameday coach?

Using a method developed by Bill James, called Pythagorean win percentage, we can see if Jones' teams underperformed (good coaching), or over-performed (bad coaching). Firstly, let us see how he fared at Cincinnati.

2012 - Cincinnati - 9-3 (0.750)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.63-2.37 (0.802)
- Team Performance Index - 0.94

2011 - Cincinnati - 10-3 (0.769)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.93-3.07 (0.764)
- Team Performance Index - 1.01

2010 - Cincinnati - 4-8 (0.333)
- Pythag Expectation - 5.76-6.24 (0.480)
- Team Performance Index - 0.69

To explain a couple of things, firstly, the very top line is how his team did that year. The second line is the Pythagorean expectation, or what the team should have done that year. The third line is Team Performance Index, which takes the actual winning percentage of the team, and divides it by the Pythagorean expectation. 1 is average, higher means that a team overperformed, lower means that a team underperformed.

His first year at Cincy was a major disappointment, as he took a team that should have won 5-6 games, and won 4. During his last two years at Cincinnati, his teams performed to expectations. In 2011, he won 10 games with a team that was expected to do just that, and in 2012, he took a team that was supposed to win 9-10 games, and won 9. At Cincinnati, he was an average to below average coach, with his TPI at 0.88.

Central Michigan, however, was a much different story.

2009 - Central Michigan - 12-2 (0.857)
- Pythag Expectation - 11.19-2.81 (0.799)
- Team Performance Index - 1.07

2008 - Central Michigan - 8-5 (0.615)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.32-6.68 (0.486)
- Team Performance Index - 1.27

2007 - Central Michigan - 8-6 (0.571)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.50-7.50 (0.465)
- Team Performance Index - 1.23

Jones' teams outperformed expectation in every year that he was at Central Michigan. His best coaching performance of his career came here, as he led the '08 Chippewas to an 8-5 record, when they really should have won 6-7 games that year. Overall, at Central Michigan, Jones had a TPI of 1.19, making him an excellent coach there.

His head coaching career overall is rated under the TPI system at a 1.04, meaning that he is an above average coach overall for his career.

Verdict

Although the coaching search at Tennessee was quite controversial, the end result may not have been as bad as some may have thought. Maybe you believe that Dave Hart is a buffoon and Jimmy Cheek is a booger eating dingbat in his ivory tower, and that the two of them are working to screw over Tennessee athletics, and I can't say I blame you for at least letting the notion come to your mind. But, in the end, this hire isn't as bad as some Tennessee fans are thinking. Butch Jones is not Derek Dooley 2.0, and that cannot be stressed enough. His overall record is 50-27, a far cry from the 17-20 that Dooley came here with. He has won at least a share of 4 conference championships, 4 more than Derek Dooley had before he arrived on The Hill. Can he lead us to an SEC title? I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone can say one way or the other. However, I think the hire has promise to it, and I think Butch Jones is a good football coach. In the end though, only time will tell whether Jones is the right call or not.
 
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#2
#2
KingNick865 said:
Butch Jones is Tennessee's new football coach, and that in and of itself, seems to have caused quite a stir around the community and the fanbase, and maybe not in a good way. There were those so disappointed with the hire that they vowed to not give another cent until Hart and Cheek are fired, which I certainly understand. I think most fans expected a better coach out of this search than Butch Jones, as did I. However, since he is here, I felt that I should further look into his career, and see what numbers and facts can tell us to expect from him in the future.

Can he recruit?

That is probably the number one question right now concerning him as of right now. Tennessee needs talent, and it needs it in a bad way.

When looking at his classes from Cincinnati, I found something very promising. He is the best recruiter that that school has ever had, and that is backed up in the average Rivals star rating for his three classes, which is a 2.86. For comparison, the long term average for Cincy's program is a mere 2.24. When compared to each other, Jones has recruited 28% above the average at that school. For a longer term comparison between him and the other coaches at that school, here is every class that Cincinnati has had since Rivals started publishing class rankings in 2002.

2013 - 2.80 (Butch Jones)
2012 - 2.86 (Butch Jones)
2011 - 2.92 (Butch Jones)
2010 - 2.55 (Brian Kelly)
2009 - 2.48 (Brian Kelly)
2008 - 2.25 (Brian Kelly)
2007 - 2.26 (Mark Dantonio)
2006 - 1.95 (Mark Dantonio)
2005 - 2.04 (Mark Dantonio)
2004 - 2.06 (Rick Minter)
2003 - 2.04 (Rick Minter)
2002 - 0.70 (Rick Minter)

Now, at Central Michigan, Jones is still an above average recruiter, just not by much. When comparing the average rating of his classes at Central Michigan (which is a 2.14), to the program average (which is a 2.11), Jones' average at Central Michigan has been only 2% above the long term average of the school. Again, here is every class Central Michigan has signed going back to 2002.

2013 - 2.43 (Dan Enos)
2012 - 2.22 (Dan Enos)
2011 - 2.15 (Dan Enos)
2010 - 2.15 (Butch Jones)
2009 - 2.23 (Butch Jones)
2008 - 2.05 (Butch Jones)
2007 - 1.94 (Brian Kelly)
2006 - 2.00 (Brian Kelly)
2005 - 2.04 (Brian Kelly)
2004 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)
2003 - 2.11 (Mike DeBord)
2002 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)

If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed something real promising. Butch Jones has out-recruited Brian Kelly at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Now, the one thing I could see somebody saying is, "Yeah, but Brian Kelly set the foundation," which is certainly an argument with merit. However, I believe that ignores the fact that his recruiting has been better than Kelly's, not merely the same. Thus, I believe we can conclude that Jones certainly can recruit if surrounded by resources such as Tennessee.

Is he a good gameday coach?

Using a method developed by Bill James, called Pythagorean win percentage, we can see if Jones' teams underperformed (good coaching), or over-performed (bad coaching). Firstly, let us see how he fared at Cincinnati.

2012 - Cincinnati - 9-3 (0.750)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.63-2.37 (0.802)
- Team Performance Index - 0.94

2011 - Cincinnati - 10-3 (0.769)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.93-3.07 (0.764)
- Team Performance Index - 1.01

2010 - Cincinnati - 4-8 (0.333)
- Pythag Expectation - 5.76-6.24 (0.480)
- Team Performance Index - 0.69

To explain a couple of things, firstly, the very top line is how his team did that year. The second line is the Pythagorean expectation, or what the team should have done that year. The third line is Team Performance Index, which takes the actual winning percentage of the team, and divides it by the Pythagorean expectation. 1 is average, higher means that a team overperformed, lower means that a team underperformed.

His first year at Cincy was a major disappointment, as he took a team that should have won 5-6 games, and won 4. During his last two years at Cincinnati, his teams performed to expectations. In 2011, he won 10 games with a team that was expected to do just that, and in 2012, he took a team that was supposed to win 9-10 games, and won 9. At Cincinnati, he was an average to below average coach, with his TPI at 0.88.

Central Michigan, however, was a much different story.

2009 - Central Michigan - 12-2 (0.857)
- Pythag Expectation - 11.19-2.81 (0.799)
- Team Performance Index - 1.07

2008 - Central Michigan - 8-5 (0.615)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.32-6.68 (0.486)
- Team Performance Index - 1.27

2007 - Central Michigan - 8-6 (0.571)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.50-7.50 (0.465)
- Team Performance Index - 1.23

Jones' teams outperformed expectation in every year that he was at Central Michigan. His best coaching performance of his career came here, as he led the '08 Chippewas to an 8-5 record, when they really should have won 6-7 games that year. Overall, at Central Michigan, Jones had a TPI of 1.19, making him an excellent coach there.

His head coaching career overall is rated under the TPI system at a 1.04, meaning that he is an above average coach overall for his career.

Verdict

Although the coaching search at Tennessee was quite controversial, the end result may not have been as bad as some may have thought. Maybe you believe that Dave Hart is a buffoon and Jimmy Cheek is a booger eating dingbat in his ivory tower, and that the two of them are working to screw over Tennessee athletics, and I can't say I blame you for at least letting the notion come to your mind. But, in the end, this hire isn't as bad as some Tennessee fans are thinking. Butch Jones is not Derek Dooley 2.0, and that cannot be stressed enough. His overall record is 50-27, a far cry from the 17-20 that Dooley came here with. He has won at least a share of 4 conference championships, 4 more than Derek Dooley had before he arrived on The Hill. Can he lead us to an SEC title? I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone can say one way or the other. However, I think the hire has promise to it, and I think Butch Jones is a good football coach. In the end though, only time will tell whether Jones is the right call or not.
Click to expand...

Wow. That's incredible.

Could you do that math on Dooley? I'm just interested to see how bad he sucked it up. I already know, but math puts a good closure on things.

I feel good about Butch. I feel like as long as we have quality players we will be competitive.
 
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#3
#3
#4
#4
yeah you did your homework, thanks for the info. I'm NOW looking forward to the upcoming season and can't wait to see who he brings in on staff. I'm liking more about Butch the more I see videos about him. There is some excitement here again that was NOT here when Dooley was hired, or even Kiffin when he was first hired.
 
#7
#7
Thanks for all the work... Don't understand a thing I read....but that is jusr me....what i do understand is a Dooley coached team plastered 40+ pts on his team..

I know that was one game only and not a complete picture of his overall work, but it it still difficult for me to get over...remember this was Dooley, perhaps the worse coach in the modern Tennessee history
 
#8
#8
I wish I knew Pathageres, I'm not smart enough to understand all this, but it sounds good. I think I and a lot of our fans were so jacked up over first Gruden, then Strong that we all went beserk when we didn't get either. Gruden wouldn't have worked out anyway. I think most of us felt it had to be someone with southern ties. When I heard coach Jones opening statements I felt better immediately. He seems sincere, hard working, posessing good values, and his record indicates he can win. i really liked the coach Saban and coach Miles had no southern ties and seem to have done ok statement. I like that fight attitude with out being a smart butt. I feel very good at this pt. and looking forward to next year, Good post my friend.
 
#9
#9
If you watched the latest videos, and you're still not even somewhat on board you need to check your pulse.

This guy seems like the real deal.
 
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#10
#10
Coastypop said:
Thanks for all the work... Don't understand a thing I read....but that is jusr me....what i do understand is a Dooley coached team plastered 40+ pts on his team..

I know that was one game only and not a complete picture of his overall work, but it it still difficult for me to get over...remember this was Dooley, perhaps the worse coach in the modern Tennessee history
Click to expand...

I understand the concern, but you have to remember that it's just one game in his tenure that consists of 77 games. Not to mention, that was when we had Da'Rick, Justin Hunter pre-ACL tear, and Tyler Bray all together.

(As a side note, sad to think that that was the the last game those three were together at full strength)
 
#12
#12
Seriously...im way too drunk to close one eye and read your post. At first glance it looks legit and full of sound fact...ill re-read tomorrow after coffee and a few advil.


Managed a thumbs up for content
 
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#17
#17
Those are great MAC numbers. Average Big East numbers. I think his SEC numbers will be far worse.
 
#18
#18
Hoss Diesel said:
Those are great MAC numbers. Average Big East numbers. I think his SEC numbers will be far worse.
Click to expand...

Next season, we'll be good to go 6-6. BUT...I would be satisfied with that. I think the possibility for 7 wins is there. Plus bowl. We will just have to see how the system sinks in.

I feel bad for this defense. How many schemes are they gonna have to learn in a career?!?
 
#19
#19
Hoss Diesel said:
Those are great MAC numbers. Average Big East numbers. I think his SEC numbers will be far worse.
Click to expand...

Certainly possible. I will admit that this hire has risk to it, but I think he'll recruit well here, almost certainly better than Dooley, and I think he'll be a far better gameday coach than Dooley was. I know Dooley isn't supposed to be the benchmark for this program though, nor should he be. However, I think the numbers say that he's certainly got potential to develop into a very good head coach.
 
#21
#21
I’m optimistic yet cautious at the same time with this hire. That said, I support CBJ fully.
 
#22
#22
If you have time, and the inclination, could you also do a Pythagorean analysis on at least some of the coaches in the SEC that Butch will be going up against? It'd be nice to have a numerical index to use as a basis for comparing Jones to Saban, Miles, Spurrier, Richt, Muschamp and the other usual suspects that we love to hate. Win/Loss records don't tell everything.
 
#23
#23
Special Ed said:
If you have time, and the inclination, could you also do a Pythagorean analysis on at least some of the coaches in the SEC that Butch will be going up against? It'd be nice to have a numerical index to use as a basis for comparing Jones to Saban, Miles, Spurrier, Richt, Muschamp and the other usual suspects that we love to hate. Win/Loss records don't tell everything.
Click to expand...

I've done Saban's already (and his is just weird), in the process of doing Richt's, and I'll probably be able to do the rest of the SEC soon.
 
#25
#25
KingNick865 said:
Butch Jones is Tennessee's new football coach, and that in and of itself, seems to have caused quite a stir around the community and the fanbase, and maybe not in a good way. There were those so disappointed with the hire that they vowed to not give another cent until Hart and Cheek are fired, which I certainly understand. I think most fans expected a better coach out of this search than Butch Jones, as did I. However, since he is here, I felt that I should further look into his career, and see what numbers and facts can tell us to expect from him in the future.

Can he recruit?

That is probably the number one question right now concerning him as of right now. Tennessee needs talent, and it needs it in a bad way.

When looking at his classes from Cincinnati, I found something very promising. He is the best recruiter that that school has ever had, and that is backed up in the average Rivals star rating for his three classes, which is a 2.86. For comparison, the long term average for Cincy's program is a mere 2.24. When compared to each other, Jones has recruited 28% above the average at that school. For a longer term comparison between him and the other coaches at that school, here is every class that Cincinnati has had since Rivals started publishing class rankings in 2002.

2013 - 2.80 (Butch Jones)
2012 - 2.86 (Butch Jones)
2011 - 2.92 (Butch Jones)
2010 - 2.55 (Brian Kelly)
2009 - 2.48 (Brian Kelly)
2008 - 2.25 (Brian Kelly)
2007 - 2.26 (Mark Dantonio)
2006 - 1.95 (Mark Dantonio)
2005 - 2.04 (Mark Dantonio)
2004 - 2.06 (Rick Minter)
2003 - 2.04 (Rick Minter)
2002 - 0.70 (Rick Minter)

Now, at Central Michigan, Jones is still an above average recruiter, just not by much. When comparing the average rating of his classes at Central Michigan (which is a 2.14), to the program average (which is a 2.11), Jones' average at Central Michigan has been only 2% above the long term average of the school. Again, here is every class Central Michigan has signed going back to 2002.

2013 - 2.43 (Dan Enos)
2012 - 2.22 (Dan Enos)
2011 - 2.15 (Dan Enos)
2010 - 2.15 (Butch Jones)
2009 - 2.23 (Butch Jones)
2008 - 2.05 (Butch Jones)
2007 - 1.94 (Brian Kelly)
2006 - 2.00 (Brian Kelly)
2005 - 2.04 (Brian Kelly)
2004 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)
2003 - 2.11 (Mike DeBord)
2002 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)

If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed something real promising. Butch Jones has out-recruited Brian Kelly at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Now, the one thing I could see somebody saying is, "Yeah, but Brian Kelly set the foundation," which is certainly an argument with merit. However, I believe that ignores the fact that his recruiting has been better than Kelly's, not merely the same. Thus, I believe we can conclude that Jones certainly can recruit if surrounded by resources such as Tennessee.

Is he a good gameday coach?

Using a method developed by Bill James, called Pythagorean win percentage, we can see if Jones' teams underperformed (good coaching), or over-performed (bad coaching). Firstly, let us see how he fared at Cincinnati.

2012 - Cincinnati - 9-3 (0.750)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.63-2.37 (0.802)
- Team Performance Index - 0.94

2011 - Cincinnati - 10-3 (0.769)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.93-3.07 (0.764)
- Team Performance Index - 1.01

2010 - Cincinnati - 4-8 (0.333)
- Pythag Expectation - 5.76-6.24 (0.480)
- Team Performance Index - 0.69

To explain a couple of things, firstly, the very top line is how his team did that year. The second line is the Pythagorean expectation, or what the team should have done that year. The third line is Team Performance Index, which takes the actual winning percentage of the team, and divides it by the Pythagorean expectation. 1 is average, higher means that a team overperformed, lower means that a team underperformed.

His first year at Cincy was a major disappointment, as he took a team that should have won 5-6 games, and won 4. During his last two years at Cincinnati, his teams performed to expectations. In 2011, he won 10 games with a team that was expected to do just that, and in 2012, he took a team that was supposed to win 9-10 games, and won 9. At Cincinnati, he was an average to below average coach, with his TPI at 0.88.

Central Michigan, however, was a much different story.

2009 - Central Michigan - 12-2 (0.857)
- Pythag Expectation - 11.19-2.81 (0.799)
- Team Performance Index - 1.07

2008 - Central Michigan - 8-5 (0.615)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.32-6.68 (0.486)
- Team Performance Index - 1.27

2007 - Central Michigan - 8-6 (0.571)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.50-7.50 (0.465)
- Team Performance Index - 1.23

Jones' teams outperformed expectation in every year that he was at Central Michigan. His best coaching performance of his career came here, as he led the '08 Chippewas to an 8-5 record, when they really should have won 6-7 games that year. Overall, at Central Michigan, Jones had a TPI of 1.19, making him an excellent coach there.

His head coaching career overall is rated under the TPI system at a 1.04, meaning that he is an above average coach overall for his career.

Verdict

Although the coaching search at Tennessee was quite controversial, the end result may not have been as bad as some may have thought. Maybe you believe that Dave Hart is a buffoon and Jimmy Cheek is a booger eating dingbat in his ivory tower, and that the two of them are working to screw over Tennessee athletics, and I can't say I blame you for at least letting the notion come to your mind. But, in the end, this hire isn't as bad as some Tennessee fans are thinking. Butch Jones is not Derek Dooley 2.0, and that cannot be stressed enough. His overall record is 50-27, a far cry from the 17-20 that Dooley came here with. He has won at least a share of 4 conference championships, 4 more than Derek Dooley had before he arrived on The Hill. Can he lead us to an SEC title? I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone can say one way or the other. However, I think the hire has promise to it, and I think Butch Jones is a good football coach. In the end though, only time will tell whether Jones is the right call or not.
Click to expand...



What most fans are seeing is that in order for us to get back to our winning ways, we need a coach who is equal to Miles, Saban, Mushamp, etc. or else we will be on the second tier of the S.E.C. coaching ranks.

The hire is good but not great.... it won't stand up against the top coaches in the S.E.C. at this point.

Also, should we have the 9th recruiting class in college football but the schools ahead of us are Florida, UGA, Alabama, Southern Cal, Oregon, Texas, Texas A.& M, Auburn and South Carolina, then we can't be happy about that. Sure we are 9th in the nation in recruiting but we are #7 in recruiting against S.E.C. schools, which are the team that we have to play against.....

So, while Jones is a good hire, he is probably not as good as Sumlin, Miles, Saban, Spurrier yet, but is probably equal to Muschamp, Mullens and Richt.

This leaves us as the 10th or 11th team in the S.E.C.
 
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