Butch Jones is Tennessee's new football coach, and that in and of itself, seems to have caused quite a stir around the community and the fanbase, and maybe not in a good way. There were those so disappointed with the hire that they vowed to not give another cent until Hart and Cheek are fired, which I certainly understand. I think most fans expected a better coach out of this search than Butch Jones, as did I. However, since he is here, I felt that I should further look into his career, and see what numbers and facts can tell us to expect from him in the future.
Can he recruit?
That is probably the number one question right now concerning him as of right now. Tennessee needs talent, and it needs it in a bad way.
When looking at his classes from Cincinnati, I found something very promising. He is the best recruiter that that school has ever had, and that is backed up in the average Rivals star rating for his three classes, which is a 2.86. For comparison, the long term average for Cincy's program is a mere 2.24. When compared to each other, Jones has recruited 28% above the average at that school. For a longer term comparison between him and the other coaches at that school, here is every class that Cincinnati has had since Rivals started publishing class rankings in 2002.
2013 - 2.80 (Butch Jones)
2012 - 2.86 (Butch Jones)
2011 - 2.92 (Butch Jones)
2010 - 2.55 (Brian Kelly)
2009 - 2.48 (Brian Kelly)
2008 - 2.25 (Brian Kelly)
2007 - 2.26 (Mark Dantonio)
2006 - 1.95 (Mark Dantonio)
2005 - 2.04 (Mark Dantonio)
2004 - 2.06 (Rick Minter)
2003 - 2.04 (Rick Minter)
2002 - 0.70 (Rick Minter)
Now, at Central Michigan, Jones is still an above average recruiter, just not by much. When comparing the average rating of his classes at Central Michigan (which is a 2.14), to the program average (which is a 2.11), Jones' average at Central Michigan has been only 2% above the long term average of the school. Again, here is every class Central Michigan has signed going back to 2002.
2013 - 2.43 (Dan Enos)
2012 - 2.22 (Dan Enos)
2011 - 2.15 (Dan Enos)
2010 - 2.15 (Butch Jones)
2009 - 2.23 (Butch Jones)
2008 - 2.05 (Butch Jones)
2007 - 1.94 (Brian Kelly)
2006 - 2.00 (Brian Kelly)
2005 - 2.04 (Brian Kelly)
2004 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)
2003 - 2.11 (Mike DeBord)
2002 - 2.00 (Mike DeBord)
If you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed something real promising. Butch Jones has out-recruited Brian Kelly at both Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Now, the one thing I could see somebody saying is, "Yeah, but Brian Kelly set the foundation," which is certainly an argument with merit. However, I believe that ignores the fact that his recruiting has been better than Kelly's, not merely the same. Thus, I believe we can conclude that Jones certainly can recruit if surrounded by resources such as Tennessee.
Is he a good gameday coach?
Using a method developed by Bill James, called Pythagorean win percentage, we can see if Jones' teams underperformed (good coaching), or over-performed (bad coaching). Firstly, let us see how he fared at Cincinnati.
2012 - Cincinnati - 9-3 (0.750)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.63-2.37 (0.802)
- Team Performance Index - 0.94
2011 - Cincinnati - 10-3 (0.769)
- Pythag Expectation - 9.93-3.07 (0.764)
- Team Performance Index - 1.01
2010 - Cincinnati - 4-8 (0.333)
- Pythag Expectation - 5.76-6.24 (0.480)
- Team Performance Index - 0.69
To explain a couple of things, firstly, the very top line is how his team did that year. The second line is the Pythagorean expectation, or what the team should have done that year. The third line is Team Performance Index, which takes the actual winning percentage of the team, and divides it by the Pythagorean expectation. 1 is average, higher means that a team overperformed, lower means that a team underperformed.
His first year at Cincy was a major disappointment, as he took a team that should have won 5-6 games, and won 4. During his last two years at Cincinnati, his teams performed to expectations. In 2011, he won 10 games with a team that was expected to do just that, and in 2012, he took a team that was supposed to win 9-10 games, and won 9. At Cincinnati, he was an average to below average coach, with his TPI at 0.88.
Central Michigan, however, was a much different story.
2009 - Central Michigan - 12-2 (0.857)
- Pythag Expectation - 11.19-2.81 (0.799)
- Team Performance Index - 1.07
2008 - Central Michigan - 8-5 (0.615)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.32-6.68 (0.486)
- Team Performance Index - 1.27
2007 - Central Michigan - 8-6 (0.571)
- Pythag Expectation - 6.50-7.50 (0.465)
- Team Performance Index - 1.23
Jones' teams outperformed expectation in every year that he was at Central Michigan. His best coaching performance of his career came here, as he led the '08 Chippewas to an 8-5 record, when they really should have won 6-7 games that year. Overall, at Central Michigan, Jones had a TPI of 1.19, making him an excellent coach there.
His head coaching career overall is rated under the TPI system at a 1.04, meaning that he is an above average coach overall for his career.
Verdict
Although the coaching search at Tennessee was quite controversial, the end result may not have been as bad as some may have thought. Maybe you believe that Dave Hart is a buffoon and Jimmy Cheek is a booger eating dingbat in his ivory tower, and that the two of them are working to screw over Tennessee athletics, and I can't say I blame you for at least letting the notion come to your mind. But, in the end, this hire isn't as bad as some Tennessee fans are thinking. Butch Jones is not Derek Dooley 2.0, and that cannot be stressed enough. His overall record is 50-27, a far cry from the 17-20 that Dooley came here with. He has won at least a share of 4 conference championships, 4 more than Derek Dooley had before he arrived on The Hill. Can he lead us to an SEC title? I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone can say one way or the other. However, I think the hire has promise to it, and I think Butch Jones is a good football coach. In the end though, only time will tell whether Jones is the right call or not.
