CFP Scenarios (merged)

#1,201
#1,201
ZZ13 said:
You must have missed the other threads on this. There are a whole bunch of posters that have already scientifically determined that Tennessee will blow out their last three opponents and is a lock for the playoffs, that TCU will lose, that a one loss ACC champ isn’t a threat to take our spot, that a one loss PAC-12 champ isn’t a threat to take our spot, that the loser of OSU/Michigan isn’t a threat to take our spot, that a one loss Ole Miss isn’t a threat to take our spot. So no need to really follow anymore football games. Just check back in on Dec 4 to see which team the committee has penciled in to play us in the first round of the playoffs.
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Ole Piss isn’t a threat at all to take our spot. I’m not going to comment on the other ones though.
 
#1,202
#1,202
Because we didn't get it done Saturday we have to cross our fingers, rub a unicorns forehead, throw pixie dust and visit Gypsy Palm Readers to cast roots/spells on other higher ranked teams to slide into a playoff spot. Like it or not, this is our world going forward. Georgia went undefeated last year, lost to Bama in the SECCG and still was one of the best of 4 teams left standing so they got in the PO. We do not have this luxury in this season. We have to hope Georgia goes 12-0 and wins the SEC against a 2 loss (LSU?) to assure us a spot. The bama win is losing its luster with their 2nd loss and the close wins they've had throughout the year. Our best win seems to be LSU now. This is going to be nerve racking.............
 
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#1,203
#1,203
Our biggest threats for the 4th spot are a one loss Mich and one loss Oregon team.

Like the elections tomorrow, the 4th spot is a toss up. We need to win the next three games very convincingly. 48-13-ish
 
#1,204
#1,204
TheOrange&White said:
For the sake of discussion, let's assume a few things:

1) Oregon and USC win out and play in the Pac-12 championship
2) Ohio St. and Michigan win out and play in the Big 10 championship so the only loss either has is their head-to-head
3) TCU loses to Texas and/or Baylor
4) GA wins out incl. the SEC title
5) We win our remaining games convincingly

The playoff committee would obviously put GA at 1. The Big 10 champ is in also. My questions are:
1) Say Ohio St. beats Michigan and goes on to win the Big 10. Michigan would be in the same situation as us: a one loss team with that loss to the conference champion.
--Would the committee put in two Big 10 teams instead of two SEC teams?
--Would we get the nod since our loss is to the #1 team who has been AP #1 almost all season and theirs is to the #2/#3 team who has a worse resume?

2) If they do put in two Big 10 teams, then there's one spot left. Us and Oregon lost to the same team. Theirs looks worse since it was at a neutral sight and by a larger margin, but they have the conference championship.
--Would they put us in over them?
--Or if USC won would they value a one-loss conference champion more even with the loss to Utah?
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We need to pull for Illinois and Ohio St to beat Michigan. Unfortunately Michigan has a chance to knock off Illinois who might be top 12-15 when they meet. Our remaining schedule doesn’t help us.
 
#1,205
#1,205
College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Top 25 projections Week 11
  1. Georgia (9-0) | Prev: 3 — If Georgia isn't No. 1 after defeating the then-No. 1 team in the country, it will surprise everyone. The Bulldogs have the best win of any undefeated team and are the defending national champions. That's deserving of the top spot.
  2. Ohio State (9-0) | Prev: 2 — Ohio State struggled offensively in the elements, but still walked away with a win over Northwestern. Every other undefeated team ranked below the Buckeyes faced difficulties of their own last week, so no one supplants Ohio State from No. 2
  3. Michigan (9-0) | Prev: 5 — The Wolverines trailed Rutgers at halftime before dominating the second half. Nonetheless, Michigan rises with two teams above it losing.
  4. Tennessee (8-1) | Prev: 1 — Tennessee over an undefeated TCU? Yes, that will surely make headlines, but the Vols have wins over LSU, Alabama and Kentucky. One loss doesn't drop Tennessee out of the playoff hunt.
  5. TCU (9-0) | Prev: 7 — TCU was ranked behind Alabama last week because "They've gotten behind in some games." Against Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs trailed entering the fourth quarter. I don't see the committee's reasoning changing with that performance.
  6. Oregon (8-1) | Prev: 8 — After a Boobie Miles-like performance from quarterback Bo Nix where he threw, ran and caught a touchdown, Oregon has won eight in a row
College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What the CFP top 25 could look like in Week 11
 
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#1,209
#1,209
There will be 5 SEC teams ranked in the top 10 Tuesday. We will likely be ranked 4th and keep that spot until OSU- Michigan play. Loser of that game will likely be 4th with Vols to 3rd. It will be SEC vs B10 in the playoffs.
 
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#1,210
#1,210
If we win out and our only loss is to the #1 team of UGA, our resume will speak for itself. We already have two top 10 wins as of right now and 5 ranked wins at the time the game was played. TCU won’t get by the rest of the year without dropping one. I don’t necessarily think Oregon needs to lose but it would help. Obviously the loser of OSU/UM will drop out
 
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#1,211
#1,211
KeyVol14 said:
If we win out and our only loss is to the #1 team of UGA, our resume will speak for itself. We already have two top 10 wins as of right now and 5 ranked wins at the time the game was played. TCU won’t get by the rest of the year without dropping one. I don’t necessarily think Oregon needs to lose but it would help. Obviously the loser of OSU/UM will drop out
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CFP description specifically states it does not consider the opponent's ranking back when the game was played.
 
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#1,212
#1,212
KeyVol14 said:
If we win out and our only loss is to the #1 team of UGA, our resume will speak for itself. We already have two top 10 wins as of right now and 5 ranked wins at the time the game was played. TCU won’t get by the rest of the year without dropping one. I don’t necessarily think Oregon needs to lose but it would help. Obviously the loser of OSU/UM will drop out
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I don’t see UO jumping us either because of our result vs a common opponent in UGA. USC winning the PAC-12 would be my only concern of being jumped. They’re a 1pt loss on the road away from being undefeated and will likely end their season playing 3 top 25 teams successively. If they win out will the “what have you done recently” ideology creep into the committee’s collective minds?

TCU will have to beat 2 solid teams on the road and likely beat one of them again on a neutral field and I don’t see them going unscathed through that so I feel confident we’re in.
 
#1,214
#1,214
ZZ13 said:
You mean like TCU that first year that was #2 with two weeks to go. Then slaughtered their last two opponents by 40 points each and fell out to #5 so Ohio State could get in (which ironically then won the thing). Then slaughtered Ole Miss 42-3 in their bowl game by the way. Again. It’s a TV show and ESPN will select the actors for the show with the highest Q rating.
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And Tennessee is a bigger brand than TCU by literal orders of magnitude, not to mention playing in the best conference in college football, so it isn’t the same at all, is it?
 
#1,215
#1,215
SockeyeVol said:
After looking at it all, I think our main threat comes from a 1-loss Pac-12 champion:



My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.
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You are really pushing a B10 bias... I think they get 1 in that wins out. To include Conference Championship. The loser takes a back row seat to the top 6. It will come down to the winner of the Conference nothing more nothing less.

Too much football to be played but if we win out we are in.
 
#1,217
#1,217
orangemadam said:
Our biggest threats for the 4th spot are a one loss Mich and one loss Oregon team.

Like the elections tomorrow, the 4th spot is a toss up. We need to win the next three games very convincingly. 48-13-ish
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Any one-loss P12 champ is a threat to Tennessee.
 
#1,224
#1,224
Sudden Impact said:
You are really pushing a B10 bias... I think they get 1 in that wins out. To include Conference Championship. The loser takes a back row seat to the top 6. It will come down to the winner of the Conference nothing more nothing less.

Too much football to be played but if we win out we are in.
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Whatever dude. I put a ton of effort into that post, and the only thing you take from it "b10 bias"? And then selectively quote only part of?

Another poster took the time to eloquently relieve me of my concerns about Michigan outranking TN at 11-1, using logic and reason in another thread.

As I say above, I think the biggest threat comes from a 12-1 Pac 12 champ. Of course, maybe that just because I hate the South....
 
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#1,225
#1,225
Most likely Tennessee wins out so that’s an easy task for Tennessee.

A pretty good Texas team could defeat Texas Christian in a close game because it’s not likely Texas will demolish Texas Christian.
 
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