College Hoops Around The Country [TN opponents, RPI, others]

[cncchris33]

NC St. has beaten Arizona, Duke, and Clemson plus lost to Tennessee. Yet their RPI is 79 and their SOS is 102. That is strange to me. I know they lost to a lower mid major, maybe that is why?

The reason is because their OOC schedule is a giant turd.

8 of their 12 wins come from...
163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

Plus losses to...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

Their only saving grace is wins against...
1 Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona

They have 8 more opportunities to catch wins against top-50 RPI teams, so hopefully they can make it up.

 

[cncchris33]

The reason is because their OOC schedule is a giant turd.

8 of their 12 wins come from...
163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

Plus losses to...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

Their only saving grace is wins against...
1 Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona

They have 8 more opportunities to catch wins against top-50 RPI teams, so hopefully they can make it up.

By comparison, Tennessee has only played 9 total games against teams outside the RPI Top-50, and won them all...

61 Lipscomb
75 NCSU
109 Furman
114 Wake Forest
137 Georgia Tech
154 Vanderbilt
221 Mercer
280 High Point
288 Presbyterian

We have 7 more games against RPI Top-50 team's. 13 against the RPI Top-100. Our worst remaining opponent is a rematch vs Vandy in Knoxville. We also play @Iowa St, who is 104.

 

[BigZiti09]

The reason is because their OOC schedule is a giant turd.

8 of their 12 wins come from...
163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

Plus losses to...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

Their only saving grace is wins against...
1 Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona

They have 8 more opportunities to catch wins against top-50 RPI teams, so hopefully they can make it up.

This is where I have a problem with RPI/SOS.

What's the difference in these teams?

163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

They all suck. If you played Robert Morris 8x or if you played Charleston Southern 8x what is the difference? They both suck and you should win both games.

I mean that's a terrible job scheduling by them but its just crazy to me their SOS and RPI take such a hit.

 

[cncchris33]

This is where I have a problem with RPI/SOS.

What's the difference in these teams?

163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

They all suck. If you played Robert Morris 8x or if you played Charleston Southern 8x what is the difference? They both suck and you should win both games.

I mean that's a terrible job scheduling by them but its just crazy to me their SOS and RPI take such a hit.

I guess the issue is how many games they played vs teams outside the top-150. The difference in Robert Morris at 163 and Charleston Southern at 326 is probably negligible, like you said, but I'm not sure NCSU is severely punished for playing more teams in the 300 range vs the 160 range. They all fall outside the top-150, which is what hurts. If they had scheduled teams in the top-150, their RPI would reflect that and be higher.

At the end of the day, there has to be a way of tangibly ranking wins and losses to determine who is doing their due diligence in making their case for selection to the NCAA Tournament. And by virtue of such, lines have to be drawn somewhere. Is there a major difference in a team ranked 140 and a team ranked 160? Probably not, but there has to be a line to differentiate good wins/losses vs bad wins/losses. It isn't a perfect system, but it's the best way to determine a team's overall resumé.

 

[BigZiti09]

I guess the issue is how many games they played vs teams outside the top-150. The difference in Robert Morris at 163 and Charleston Southern at 326 is probably negligible, like you said, but I'm not sure NCSU is severely punished for playing more teams in the 300 range vs the 160 range. They all fall outside the top-150, which is what hurts. If they had scheduled teams in the top-150, their RPI would reflect that and be higher.

At the end of the day, there has to be a way of tangibly ranking wins and losses to determine who is doing their due diligence in making their case for selection to the NCAA Tournament. And by virtue of such, lines have to be drawn somewhere. Is there a major difference in a team ranked 140 and a team ranked 160? Probably not, but there has to be a line to differentiate good wins/losses vs bad wins/losses. It isn't a perfect system, but it's the best way to determine a team's overall resumé.

Not gonna have time to do this today but I'd like to take a look at what NC State has done vs what Missouri has done. Just to look at what the eyeball test says vs what the computers say.

 

[VolGee4]

This is where I have a problem with RPI/SOS.

What's the difference in these teams?

163 Robert Morris
250 UM-KC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina State
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

They all suck. If you played Robert Morris 8x or if you played Charleston Southern 8x what is the difference? They both suck and you should win both games.

I mean that's a terrible job scheduling by them but its just crazy to me their SOS and RPI take such a hit.

Robert Morris is 10-8 while Charleston Southern is 3-9. Robert Morris has a tougher schedule.

I have said this many times before and agree that the RPI is flawed. A low major team can schedule a bunch of high major road games, lose them, and win the games they are supposed to win, and come out with a very good RPI. That's why the RPI can't be the sole factor. It's an index, and you have to use wins against other RPI teams (or now quadrants) to really see what a team has done.

 

[whobethis16]

NC State has beaten #2 Duke and #19 Clemson back to back.
UNCG, which beat NC State in Raleigh, was beaten by ETSU last night by 10 in Johnson City. One point game at halftime and a rematch of last year's SouCon championship game.
PS Coach Forbes paces the sideline the entire game coaching. Rarely sits down. Brilliant coaching at the beginning of the 2nd half. UNCG went up by 5 at the 16 minute mark while the Bucs were scoreless. Called timeout and went into a full court trapping press outscoring UNCG 33-19 the rest of the game.

Maybe he's just trying to get his steps in. He is a bit heavier than Barnes....

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Not gonna have time to do this today but I'd like to take a look at what NC State has done vs what Missouri has done. Just to look at what the eyeball test says vs what the computers say.

At quick glance...

6 Top 150 wins for Missouri
3 Top 60 losses for Missouri
1 120 loss for Missouri


3 Top 150 wins for NCST
3 Top 60 losses for NCST
2 Top 130 losses for NCST

 

[BigZiti09]

At quick glance...

6 Top 150 wins for Missouri
3 Top 60 losses for Missouri
1 120 loss for Missouri


3 Top 150 wins for NCST
3 Top 60 losses for NCST
2 Top 130 losses for NCST

How many top 50 wins for each?

Or better yet, what are the top 150 wins for each team?

 

[1200DPI]

Check out what Cam Newton wore to his 2017 postgame press conferences | AL.com

Entertaining.

 

[cncchris33]

How many top 50 wins for each?

Or better yet, what are the top 150 wins for each team?

Missouri

Top-50 wins...
39 Georgia

Top-50 losses...
11 WVU (neutral site)
33 Florida

Top-150 wins...
56 @UCF
60 St. John's
66 @ USCe
104 Iowa State
110 Miami (OH)
122 Stephen F Austin

Top-150 losses...
57 @Utah
135 Illinois (neutral site)

RPI 150+ wins...
153 Wagner
183 Long Beach State
186 North Florida
342 Green Bay

RPI 150+ losses...
None



North Carolina State

Top-50 wins
1. Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona (neutral site)

Top-50 losses
6 @Clemson
14 Tennessee (neutral site)
35 @Notre Dame

Top-150 wins...
112 Penn St

Top-150 losses...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

RPI 150+ wins...
163 Robert Morris
250 UMKC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina St
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

RPI 150+ losses...
None

 

[cncchris33]

Missouri

Top-50 wins...
39 Georgia

Top-50 losses...
11 WVU (neutral site)
33 Florida

Top-150 wins...
56 @UCF
60 St. John's
66 @ USCe
104 Iowa State
110 Miami (OH)
122 Stephen F Austin

Top-150 losses...
57 @Utah
135 Illinois (neutral site)

RPI 150+ wins...
153 Wagner
183 Long Beach State
186 North Florida
342 Green Bay

RPI 150+ losses...
None



North Carolina State

Top-50 wins
1. Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona (neutral site)

Top-50 losses
6 @Clemson
14 Tennessee (neutral site)
35 @Notre Dame

Top-150 wins...
112 Penn St

Top-150 losses...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

RPI 150+ wins...
163 Robert Morris
250 UMKC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina St
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

RPI 150+ losses...
None

The difference seems to lie with Mizzou being 7-4 vs top-150 (only 4 of 11 wins coming from sub 150 teams), and NCSU being 4-5 vs top-150 (8 of 12 wins coming against sub 150 teams).

NCSU has some nice top-heavy wins, but only one other win in the top-150. Mizzou has just been more consistent with their scheduling and results, it would appear.

 

[BigZiti09]

Missouri

Top-50 wins...
39 Georgia

Top-50 losses...
11 WVU (neutral site)
33 Florida

Top-150 wins...
56 @UCF
60 St. John's
66 @ USCe
104 Iowa State
110 Miami (OH)
122 Stephen F Austin

Top-150 losses...
57 @Utah
135 Illinois (neutral site)

RPI 150+ wins...
153 Wagner
183 Long Beach State
186 North Florida
342 Green Bay

RPI 150+ losses...
None



North Carolina State

Top-50 wins
1. Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona (neutral site)

Top-50 losses
6 @Clemson
14 Tennessee (neutral site)
35 @Notre Dame

Top-150 wins...
112 Penn St

Top-150 losses...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

RPI 150+ wins...
163 Robert Morris
250 UMKC
275 VMI
288 Presbyterian
297 South Carolina St
310 Jacksonville
312 Bryant
326 Charleston Southern

RPI 150+ losses...
None

NC State resume more impressive to me.

 

[cncchris33]

NC State resume more impressive to me.

I would agree if I only looked at each team's record against the top-50. Outside that though, NCSU loaded up on a bunch of patsies. Only one other win vs top-150.

The difference seems to lie with Mizzou being 7-4 vs top-150 (only 4 of 11 wins coming from sub 150 teams), and NCSU being 4-5 vs top-150 (8 of 12 wins coming against sub 150 teams).

NCSU has some nice top-heavy wins, but only one other win in the top-150. Mizzou has just been more consistent with their scheduling and results, it would appear.

 

[FleeceItOut]

NC State has beaten #2 Duke and #19 Clemson back to back.
UNCG, which beat NC State in Raleigh, was beaten by ETSU last night by 10 in Johnson City. One point game at halftime and a rematch of last year's SouCon championship game.
PS Coach Forbes paces the sideline the entire game coaching. Rarely sits down. Brilliant coaching at the beginning of the 2nd half. UNCG went up by 5 at the 16 minute mark while the Bucs were scoreless. Called timeout and went into a full court trapping press outscoring UNCG 33-19 the rest of the game.

What’s your point? Are you saying transitive property applies in this situation? Last time I checked sports aren’t math problems.

 

[BigZiti09]

I would agree if I only looked at each team's record against the top-50. Outside that though, NCSU loaded up on a bunch of patsies. Only one other win vs top-150.

The difference seems to lie with Mizzou being 7-4 vs top-150 (only 4 of 11 wins coming from sub 150 teams), and NCSU being 4-5 vs top-150 (8 of 12 wins coming against sub 150 teams).

NCSU has some nice top-heavy wins, but only one other win in the top-150. Mizzou has just been more consistent with their scheduling and results, it would appear.

Missouri

Top-50 wins...
39 Georgia

Top-150 wins...
56 @UCF
60 St. John's
66 @ USCe
104 Iowa State
110 Miami (OH)
122 Stephen F Austin

Top-50 losses...
11 WVU (neutral site)
33 Florida

Top-150 losses...
57 @Utah
135 Illinois (neutral site)


North Carolina State

Top-50 wins
1. Duke
6 Clemson
24 Arizona (neutral site)

Top-150 wins...
112 Penn St

Top-50 losses
6 @Clemson
14 Tennessee (neutral site)
35 @Notre Dame

Top-150 losses...
105 UNCG
150 Northern Iowa

This is how I view it. I removed 150+ wins cause those games only matter if you lose them in my book. Neither team has lost them so I removed that category as well for simplification.

To me, the top 4 wins of NCST are better than the top 6 wins for Missouri. Not much difference in the rest of it.

Now, looking at the resumes there's not a lot of separation really in my book and you could make the case for either team. But..... what are their RPI and SOS rankings again?

 

[VEKZY]

This is how I view it. I removed 150+ wins cause those games only matter if you lose them in my book. Neither team has lost them so I removed that category as well for simplification.

To me, the top 4 wins of NCST are better than the top 6 wins for Missouri. Not much difference in the rest of it.

Now, looking at the resumes there's not a lot of separation really in my book and you could make the case for either team. But..... what are their RPI and SOS rankings again?

RPI and SOS doesn't start making sense until the very end of the season. NC State's wins look much more impressive than Mizz, but SOS and RPI says otherwise.

 

[cncchris33]

This is how I view it. I removed 150+ wins cause those games only matter if you lose them in my book. Neither team has lost them so I removed that category as well for simplification.

To me, the top 4 wins of NCST are better than the top 6 wins for Missouri. Not much difference in the rest of it.

Now, looking at the resumes there's not a lot of separation really in my book and you could make the case for either team. But..... what are their RPI and SOS rankings again?

If you start removing parts of the formula that make up the formula, then you aren't getting a true product. So yeah, if you start taking parts away and dissecting the resumés, you can make it say whatever you want.

And to be clear, I'm not banging the table for Mizzou over NCSU. Just presenting the info you asked for both teams. In the spirit of that, I don't think you can remove parts of it and then ask why you get the result.

It would be like baking a pie and saying, "let's throw out the butter, sugar and salt because they are bad for you", and then wondering why you have a crappy tasting pie as a result.

 

[BigZiti09]

If you start removing parts of the formula that make up the formula, then you aren't getting a true product. So yeah, if you start taking parts away and dissecting the resumés, you can make it say whatever you want.

And to be clear, I'm not banging the table for Mizzou over NCSU. Just presenting the info you asked for both teams. In the spirit of that, I don't think you can remove parts of it and then ask why you get the result.

It would be like baking a pie and saying, "let's throw out the butter, sugar and salt because they are bad for you", and then wondering why you have a crappy tasting pie as a result.

Those games are all just filler. 150+ doesn't matter to me unless you lose it. Furthermore 151 vs 351 doesn't really matter to me either unless you lose it. So listing all those is just noise in my book.

I'm giving my personal opinion. Not trying to recreate the formula. I'm showing how the formula is flawed IMO.

 

[VEKZY]

If you start removing parts of the formula that make up the formula, then you aren't getting a true product. So yeah, if you start taking parts away and dissecting the resumés, you can make it say whatever you want.

And to be clear, I'm not banging the table for Mizzou over NCSU. Just presenting the info you asked for both teams. In the spirit of that, I don't think you can remove parts of it and then ask why you get the result.

It would be like baking a pie and saying, "let's throw out the butter, sugar and salt because they are bad for you", and then wondering why you have a crappy tasting pie as a result.

The issue with the formula is that it sees a win against a #149 team as much more impressive than a win against a #300 team when the difference is truly negligible.

The formula cannot perform this type of reasoning with every game which is why humans are still involved with selection processes and rankings. We can look at each game and analyze it. The formulas are simply a tool that assist us.

 

[cncchris33]

Those games are all just filler. 150+ doesn't matter to me unless you lose it. Furthermore 151 vs 351 doesn't really matter to me either unless you lose it. So listing all those is just noise in my book.

I'm giving my personal opinion. Not trying to recreate the formula. I'm showing how the formula is flawed IMO.

Where I think it matters is in the percentage of games you schedule against those teams because it cheapens your record. NCSU is likely to need more total wins than Mizzou based on those wins you say don't matter. I don't think it's as flawed as your trying to show, but I also don't think you can prove that without considering the fact that NCSU loaded up on wins vs poor competition.

You're entitled to your opinion. I just think you're arrival to that opinion is as flawed as you seem to believe the system is itself.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

How many top 50 wins for each?

Or better yet, what are the top 150 wins for each team?

There’s no unbiased way or metric to look at teams and say who’s better, saying let’s use the “eye test” across the board is opening up a whole lot of issues. I get it’s flawed, but you have to use some sort of model like that, and with any model there are going to be exceptions/flaws.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

NC State resume more impressive to me.

They have the better wins but the worse losses...committee seems to weigh the bad losses more so.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This is how I view it. I removed 150+ wins cause those games only matter if you lose them in my book. Neither team has lost them so I removed that category as well for simplification.

To me, the top 4 wins of NCST are better than the top 6 wins for Missouri. Not much difference in the rest of it.

Now, looking at the resumes there's not a lot of separation really in my book and you could make the case for either team. But..... what are their RPI and SOS rankings again?

7-4 for Missouri
4-5 for NCST

with only half the season being played that’s a pretty big disparity imo

 

[cncchris33]

The issue with the formula is that it sees a win against a #149 team as much more impressive than a win against a #300 team when the difference is truly negligible.

The formula cannot perform this type of reasoning with every game which is why humans are still involved with selection processes and rankings. We can look at each game and analyze it. The formulas are simply a tool that assist us.

I don't disagree, and if you read my earlier posts on the subject, you'll see I addressed that very issue, almost verbatim.

The system isn't perfect, but it has to draw a line somewhere to define a good/bad win vs a good/bad loss. 50, 100, 150 are just nice round numbers.

NCSU's problem isn't that they barely missed the cutoff. It's not like they have a bunch of wins against teams in the 160s and 170s, and are just unfortunate victims of an imaginary line of demarcation. They have racked up wins vs teams hovering in the 300 range, with little to no chance of those becoming top-150 wins. That's their fault. And it means they'll have to log more wins vs the Dukes and UNCs of the world to make up for it.