Conference Realignments

#377
#377
VolInsider said:
I love it! Using Clay Travis' "Pod" alignment, this works out phenomenally.

SEC West
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

SEC Central
LSU
Miss. State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

SEC South
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia

SEC East
Carolina
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
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This is phenomenal. Could you imagine the South? That's ridiculous.
 
#379
#379
I think this would be more realistic:

SEC West
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

SEC Central
LSU
Miss. State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

SEC South
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

SEC East
Carolina
Kentucky
Georgia
Florida
 
#380
#380
Your east is way to difficult. Should we expect S.Carolina to be good forever? I think it's only a matter of time before they regress. Maybe not to their historic lows, but college is cyclical. Every program has some up years.. See Louisville, cincy, k-state, Tulane
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#381
#381
Velo Vol said:
I don't quite follow why the value of a conference TV package should be linked to what happens to a different conference on the other end of the continent.
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They're interconnected because ultimately, each media group only has so much money and so many available timeslots. If the Big12 and Big East ceased to exist or merged, then that frees up some of both.

The ACC was working under the assumption that we were headed for that scenario, and that a 16 team league is worth considerably more money than a 12 team conference. That would be the case because there would be one fewer 16 team conference, creating scarcity in the number of conferences available, while creating value with a higher total number of conference events to cover.

The argument that it's about new TV markets is somewhat valid and adds some value, but the scarcity that one fewer league creates is much, much more.

Velo Vol said:
That said, does your premise once again raise the possibility that adding Texas AM might not necessarily result in a sizable increase in the SEC's TV revenues?
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That is absolutely the case. Where a 16-team league might have increased TV revenue by 50-60%, giving the 16 teams a bigger slice of pie than the 12 were getting, a league with just A&M added, or A&M and another school may only see a 15-20% increase, even if those schools are in new markets. That barely covers the new schools while keeping the other at the same level.

There is strong word that I'm getting from ACC contacts that ESPN has already told them that they're getting a modest bump at the most from their addition, despite expanding into a major TV market. Remember that the ACC just signed a new deal last year, ESPN hasn't seen the significant landscape change that would have forced them back to the table.

The continued life of the Big 12 sunk any chance of leagues getting a huge windfall from a new TV deal.

WHo it really screws is the Big East, who rejected ESPN's huge "final offer" a few weeks ago. Their TV rights look a LOT less attractive now, unless Syracuse and Pitt go back.
 
#382
#382
DeerPark12 said:
They're interconnected because ultimately, each media group only has so much money and so many available timeslots. If the Big12 and Big East ceased to exist or merged, then that frees up some of both.
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Good point. I wasn't looking at it that way--since the number of games would obvious be the same.


DeerPark12 said:
That is absolutely the case. Where a 16-team league might have increased TV revenue by 50-60%, giving the 16 teams a bigger slice of pie than the 12 were getting, a league with just A&M added, or A&M and another school may only see a 15-20% increase, even if those schools are in new markets. That barely covers the new schools while keeping the other at the same level.
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Right now I'm hoping either: (1) we land windfall pickups and expand to a 16-team super conference, or (2) we scuttle the whole idea altogether and stay at 12 teams.

If we stay at it is or just add one more hoe hum team (e.g., Missouri), I don't think it will add any more to the conference than the last time it expanded with South Carolina and Arkansas, which I don't think has ever lived up to its billing.
 
#383
#383
Velo Vol said:
Good point. I wasn't looking at it that way--since the number of games would obvious be the same.




Right now I'm hoping either: (1) we land windfall pickups and expand to a 16-team super conference, or (2) we scuttle the whole idea altogether and stay at 12 teams.

If we stay at it is or just add one more hoe hum team (e.g., Missouri), I don't think it will add any more to the conference than the last time it expanded with South Carolina and Arkansas, which I don't think has ever lived up to its billing.
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Well at least Arkansas and Carolina have won their divisions. Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi can't say that.
 
#384
#384
Kansas City Star is reporting that a package is being worked out for Dan Beebe's resignation as Big 12 commissioner and the announcement of his resignation could come tomorrow.
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#385
#385
Velo Vol said:
Right now I'm hoping either: (1) we land windfall pickups and expand to a 16-team super conference, or (2) we scuttle the whole idea altogether and stay at 12 teams.

If we stay at it is or just add one more hoe hum team (e.g., Missouri), I don't think it will add any more to the conference than the last time it expanded with South Carolina and Arkansas, which I don't think has ever lived up to its billing.
Click to expand...

I would be stunned if either of those things happened.

As to your second statement, while it's true that neither of those teams has won a football championship, their inclusion in the league changed the game for football conferences nationwide by bringing in the concept of the Championship Game. That development changed the financial model and made the SEC the dominant conference it is today.
 
#386
#386
So DeerPark, what do you think is the final conclusion from all this?

SEC just stays at 13 till the next big go around and then goes to 16?
 
#388
#388
PermaVol said:
Your east is way to difficult.
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I never said I wasn't biased :) GBO!

I've also seen a similar layout where Carolina and Georgia are swapped out. For those that didn't see it, Travis' original pods had:

East: UT, UK, VU, UGA
South: UF, USC, NC State, VT
Central: AUB, AL, MS, MS State
West: LSU, ARK, TAMU, MU
 
#389
#389
Ericvol2096 said:
So DeerPark, what do you think is the final conclusion from all this?

SEC just stays at 13 till the next big go around and then goes to 16?
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Anybody's guess at this point.

If the ACC really doesn't get increased money from adding two teams, then you'll have Va Tech or NC State in play. If the ACC gets enough money to make those schools happy, things get really interesting. Of course, they have over two years to sort things out before Pitt and Syracuse join.

I'm not sure there's going to be a "next go around." The Big 12 looks to be stable for the next 5-6 years, against all odds.

The Big East is sorting itself out. What will hold them together is there's no place else for their teams to go. The ACC is already regretting 14, they're not going to jump first on 16. The SEC isn't interested in any of the remaining BE schools. The only way another BE school goes ACC is if the SEC poaches a NC State or VT for 14.

T. Boone Pickens is pushing A&M HARD to return to the Big 12. Nobody thinks in any way that will be successful, but that's going on.
 
#391
#391
DeerPark12 said:
Anybody's guess at this point.

If the ACC really doesn't get increased money from adding two teams, then you'll have Va Tech or NC State in play. If the ACC gets enough money to make those schools happy, things get really interesting. Of course, they have over two years to sort things out before Pitt and Syracuse join.

I'm not sure there's going to be a "next go around." The Big 12 looks to be stable for the next 5-6 years, against all odds.

The Big East is sorting itself out. What will hold them together is there's no place else for their teams to go. The ACC is already regretting 14, they're not going to jump first on 16. The SEC isn't interested in any of the remaining BE schools. The only way another BE school goes ACC is if the SEC poaches a NC State or VT for 14.

T. Boone Pickens is pushing A&M HARD to return to the Big 12. Nobody thinks in any way that will be successful, but that's going on.
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This stuff is officially crazy.

I can't believe I have been following it this closely.
 
#394
#394
DeerPark12 said:
They have been trying to get into the Big East for years and have submitted a formal application at least three other times.
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DP you see no chance at all that SEC could steal a couple ACC schools if their TV deal doesn't get reworked?
VT, NC St., and FSU specifically.
 
#395
#395
Ericvol2096 said:
DP you see no chance at all that SEC could steal a couple ACC schools if their TV deal doesn't get reworked?
VT, NC St., and FSU specifically.
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I could see them taking VT or NC State, IF the ACC's quick expansion leads to less total money for each school. That's the only way an ACC school would leave for the SEC.

I don't see a situation where the SEC takes three schools and jumps to 16 unless prompted to do so by other movements.

Florida State is an interesting situation. The smart money says there's no way they make a move. Their recent actions, however, show that they don't want to make it any harder on themselves if they do decide to leave.
 
#396
#396
Hey DeerPark12,

Have you gotten any credible wind of any existing members wanting to leave the ACC?
 
#397
#397
ECU has applied literally 27 times to the Big East. Nothing will change from this
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#398
#398
If the ACC schools and Missouri are off the table, I'm wondering how the SEC would weigh staying at 13 vs. adding a less desirable school.

Would you rather stay at 13 and play a weird, unbalanced schedule every year...or add a team like WVU, Louisville, or ECU just to even it out? I'm not sure I like either option.
 
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