volbeast33
You can count on Carlos!
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- Mar 21, 2009
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The poster will so readily embrace arguments, like Rancourt’s, that are simply not grounded in truth, and share them as if they are. Part of it is certainly confirmation bias; readers will pay attention to the parts of Rancourt’s argument that support what they want to believe, and ignore the parts that don’t (like the mistakes in Rancourt’s argument that invalidate it). But expectation bias is also active; the poster already believes masks don’t work, and so expects Rancourt’s argument to be good. He therefore sees it that way. He might even read the studies and think they support Rancourt’s thesis because Rancourt has made him expect exactly that.Whatever. I would believe the Rancourt gentleman over the likes of Fauci any day.
The cause of decreased cases in Texas is simple. Snowmaggedon/Arctic Freeze kept us separate for a week!
I've been insisting since it startedRegions hit around 10% confirmed and then the bottom starts falling out. Happened in the Dakotas about a month before Tennessee. Tennessee started dropping in early January, right around the time that a post-Christmas wave should have hit.
The math is fairly obvious if you think about it. The confirmed case to actual case ratio is probably in the 4x range, so 10% is actually 40%. If the asymptomatic cases are really the result of T-cell immunity as some are suggesting, then you can add 40%-ish of the remaining 60% and be at 64% overall immune. Throw the vaccine on top of that, and boom, herd immunity.
I'm sure there will continue to be pockets of it, and I'm sure those with agendas will continue to exploit that, but it will fade hard in most places and people will insist on returning to normal.
Regions hit around 10% confirmed and then the bottom starts falling out. Happened in the Dakotas about a month before Tennessee. Tennessee started dropping in early January, right around the time that a post-Christmas wave should have hit.
The math is fairly obvious if you think about it. The confirmed case to actual case ratio is probably in the 4x range, so 10% is actually 40%. If the asymptomatic cases are really the result of T-cell immunity as some are suggesting, then you can add 40%-ish of the remaining 60% and be at 64% overall immune. Throw the vaccine on top of that, and boom, herd immunity.
I'm sure there will continue to be pockets of it, and I'm sure those with agendas will continue to exploit that, but it will fade hard in most places and people will insist on returning to normal.
You have been paying great attention to this since the beginning. I think you are spot on here as well. I do wish deaths would drop faster.There isn't a particularly good reason for cases to be dropping as fast as they are right now, which strongly suggests that while 'novel', there was likely pre-existing immunity. Confirmed cases + unconfirmed cases + vaccine + apparent pre-existing immunity = cases falling like a rock = herd immunity is imminent. Unless a variant completely breaks that, there is a decent chance there won't be much to talk about by late April. I'm sure many will still err on the side of caution, but we may still be able to put a good group in Neyland.
These days, anyone that goes against the mainstream is going to attacked and “debunked”. Again, the purpose of my link was not Dr Rancourt’s information but the myriad of other studies he references.The poster will so readily embrace arguments, like Rancourt’s, that are simply not grounded in truth, and share them as if they are. Part of it is certainly confirmation bias; readers will pay attention to the parts of Rancourt’s argument that support what they want to believe, and ignore the parts that don’t (like the mistakes in Rancourt’s argument that invalidate it). But expectation bias is also active; the poster already believes masks don’t work, and so expects Rancourt’s argument to be good. He therefore sees it that way. He might even read the studies and think they support Rancourt’s thesis because Rancourt has made him expect exactly that.
That's how I saw it. We can debate the percentages, but the general analysis is what it is.
Please send this to Fauci. Tell him we are on to him. lol.
Then why is Covid still going strong?
If you wanna wear a mask you go right ahead. There’s as much or more “science” that disputes the effectiveness of masks as there is that supports it. Handwashing is just common sense at all times. Social distancing, hey man, if you’re coughing or sneezing... I’m distancing myself, period. If I’m coughing or sneezing, you should distance from me, but you won’t have to, because I have enough respect for others not to subject them to my illness. And yes, it’s very sad, very despicable, what this “Covid 19” has done to us all, along with all the other “Covid(s)”.... yet, it’s quite astonishing to see all other forms of death have dropped precipitously in its wake...hmmmmm. And yet, in California, where the extreme measures pertaining to distancing, mask wearing, etc. have taken place, the “Covid” rages....hmmmmmm. And that’s all I wanna say about that.The curves is finally going downward. But strange thing is that some refuse to wear masks and social distance. Maybe that has something to do with it?
Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.
View attachment 354104
Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.
If you wanna wear a mask you go right ahead. There’s as much or more “science” that disputes the effectiveness of masks as there is that supports it. Handwashing is just common sense at all times. Social distancing, hey man, if you’re coughing or sneezing... I’m distancing myself, period. If I’m coughing or sneezing, you should distance from me, but you won’t have to, because I have enough respect for others not to subject them to my illness. And yes, it’s very sad, very despicable, what this “Covid 19” has done to us all, along with all the other “Covid(s)”.... yet, it’s quite astonishing to see all other forms of death have dropped precipitously in its wake...hmmmmm. And yet, in California, where the extreme measures pertaining to distancing, mask wearing, etc. have taken place, the “Covid” rages....hmmmmmm. And that’s all I wanna say about that.
Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.
View attachment 354104
Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.