DA's comes to plea agreements for a multitude of reasons, not just because a case might be tough to get past a jury. This case probably will get plead out, but I doubt it's because the DA is worried about acquittal.
As for your theory of the defense: your logic is way off. Crowell has had legal issues before, so the "this is a good kid in a bad situation" argument will have holes in it. And they had been at a party, so it was totally possible for the car to stink of weed without there being any weed. The credibility of the cops wouldn't be damaged by that fact. Plus they did the search by the book, since Crowell gave them permission. As for whether or not any of his friends had ever seen him with a gun: it may help the defense a little. But the DA wouldn't need to prove a prior occurrence in order to prove the current one. He either possessed it or he didn't.
Again, it will probably by plead down, and Crowell will probably just get probation. But either way, he'll have a guilty verdict on his record.
And Bama, I ain't mad at ya. Just trying to get my point across. I mean, what are we gonna do about it anyway? Virtually beat the crap out of each other? Seriously though, I enjoy MOST of what you bring here.
Just be on the lookout for a big upset in Knoxville this year
Onefesternation. I believe they could use the prior failed drug tests against him if he testified in his own defense that he had never used drugs for impeachment purposes. I doubt his atty would allow him to testify though. In trial I could see his attorney offering alternative ways the gun ended up under his seat. In the end this case will be pled out with some kind of post conviction relief like expungement.
I've seen it happen. If they open the door a tad he'd be toast. But, not likely to happenI think most of us are in agreement that it won't go to trial. If it did go to trial, I'm not sure if he testifies or not. Doesn't seem to be the brightest of kids, but he may have us all fooled. His attorney would have to be an idiot to bring up anything about drugs with him on the stand. The DA wouldn't be able to ask anything about it, unless the defense "opened the door." At trial, it likely wouldn't be brought up at all, and then in closing arguments, the defense attorney would likely say all the stuff about, "we have a good kid here that has never...and he's always... and blah blah blah."
I wouldn't be surprised at all for this to plea out to almost nothing or for him to be found not guilty. Looks like he hired a big time defense attorney. Cops said they smelled marijuana, found none. Defense atty will kill them on that. Defense atty will also likely ask each player that was in the car if they saw Crowell with the gun or if they had ever seen him with a gun. They will probably say no, and try to say that someone must have planted it in his car, being that he is a high profile athlete. Still, I doubt it goes to trial and will most likely plea out.