Curiosity led me...

#1
H

hndog609

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#1
...to do some research and the results surprised me enough I thought I'd share it with you guys. I went back and looked at the AP All-SEC team and found the following, 1st and 2nd teams included. (Note, I've removed kickers/punters/special teams types, straight up position players only. Also, if the numbers don't come out evenly it's because that's how they did it. 6 Safties for instance)

51 total players:

6 5*
18 4*
19 3*
7 2*
1 player (AL Rashad Johnson) that I can't immediately determine if he even MADE the star ranking)

Immediately two things struck me; out of the whole league only 6 5* players made All-SEC and, even more surprising to me, 7 2* did. Not to mention the aforementioned R Johnson that as far as I can tell is a no star. I mean, say that out loud to yourself.

"There are more 2* players on the AP '07 All-SEC team than there are 5*"

For those wanting to play with the breakdowns, here they are.

OFF
QB-5*/4*
RB-5*/2 4*/3*
WR-5*/4*/2 3*
TE-4*/3*
OL-5*/3 4*/3 3*/4 2*

DEF
DE-4*/3 3*/2*
DT-3 4*/2 3*
LB-5*/3 4*/3*
CB-4*/3 3*/2*
S-5*/2 4*/3*/2*/Rashad Johnson (no star?)

Anyway, thought it was worth putting out there.
 
#2
#2
I've heard that OL is a very hard place to predict talent, so it isn't a huge surprise that this is where you see so many 2* players coming in. It is also worth remembering that there are a lot more 3* players than 4* and a lot more 4* players than 5*. But, the point is no less important - 3* and even 2* players can make true impacts.
 
#3
#3
Excellent reason to do your homework as a college recruiter and actually watch these guys live and in person. I doubt very seriously coaches pay much attention to rivals or scout.
 
#4
#4
Man I bet that took some time to look at!

But as mentioned there are less 5* guys (only 30 this year) with 9 going to SEC, 3 ACC, 4 Big 12, 2 PAC-10, 4 Big 12 and 4 others.
 
#5
#5
JZVOL said:
Man I bet that took some time to look at!

But as mentioned there are less 5* guys (only 30 this year) with 9 going to SEC, 3 ACC, 4 Big 12, 2 PAC-10, 4 Big 12 and 4 others.
Click to expand...

I understand how the math works in the favor of lesser star ratings by sheer numbers but isn't the whole POINT of being a 5* player supposed to mean you should stand out beyond the math? Going back to 04 there have been at least 39 5* players enter the league. (Conceding some will leave early) Shouldn't, by the very theory behind the star rating system, 4* and 5* players be disproportionatly represented on any "elite" list?
 
#6
#6
The thing I think people forget is that those stars are based on potential, not as a sure thing. Some guys get overrated as some get underrated.

It's the same as the NFL Draft or any other draft. They are projected on their potential at the next level and guys with the most potential are picked first. There are many guys that flop (Heath Shuler) that are picked in the first round and guys like Tom Brady.
 
#7
#7
hndog609 said:
I understand how the math works in the favor of lesser star ratings by sheer numbers but isn't the whole POINT of being a 5* player supposed to mean you should stand out beyond the math? Going back to 04 there have been at least 39 5* players enter the league. (Conceding some will leave early) Shouldn't, by the very theory behind the star rating system, 4* and 5* players be disproportionatly represented on any "elite" list?
Click to expand...

If ratings were perfect and there were no injuries then I would say the All-SEC team would be all 4* and 5* players. But, obviously that isn't the case. I think that a good question to answer would be what percentage of 5* players that entered the league are an all-SEC player at some point during their career...how about 4*, or 3*? I would bet that there is an obvious trend that the 5*/4* players have the highest percentage, followed by 3*, then 2*. If true, then this would support the belief that while the recruiting service are not always right and you might land a sleeper - the odds say that the higher-ranked player would have a higher "percentage" chance of being an all-SEC impact player. There are always going to be over-rated and under-rated players, though.
 
#8
#8
TennTradition said:
If ratings were perfect and there were no injuries then I would say the All-SEC team would be all 4* and 5* players. But, obviously that isn't the case. I think that a good question to answer would be what percentage of 5* players that entered the league are an all-SEC player at some point during their career...how about 4*, or 3*? I would bet that there is an obvious trend that the 5*/4* players have the highest percentage, followed by 3*, then 2*. If true, then this would support the belief that while the recruiting service are not always right and you might land a sleeper - the odds say that the higher-ranked player would have a higher "percentage" chance of being an all-SEC impact player. There are always going to be over-rated and under-rated players, though.
Click to expand...

Whew, that would be one serious case of insomnia for me to tackle. :)

I get where you and JZ are coming from but there's just no getting around my surprise at finding that in the AP's opinion the 51 BEST players in the league at their postions, regardless of class, are comprised of 27 players rated at 3* or less and only 24 rated 4* or above. Mathmatical probabilities and percentages be damned, that just doesn't seem...right.
 
#9
#9
but you also factor in that those 5* ratings are a proposed overall potential.

Other factors:
Kid doesn't fit in with system
Kid loses focus and becomes apathetic
Now that the kid is finally playing on more equal ground that in HS, weaknesses would be exposed.


I've always thought that good coaching, good scheme fit and a suburb work ethic will trump just about any moderate athletic deficiency a player would have. IE what's the point of having a Randy Moss type of player if you don't throw deep (oakland vs. NE). Even a guy like Moss slumped into the "apathetic and bad system fit" category... so who's to say that these kids coming out of HS aren't getting star-struck and go to a school that maybe isn't the best fit for their particular skill set. Then they just end up in a rut, and some eager 3* takes their job. Just my take.
 
#10
#10
hard work beats talent when talent doesnt work hard

in this case you can get a 5* guy who thinks he is a king who steps on campus getting beat out by a workhorse 3* player who does everything the coaches ask, puts 250% on the field, and then goes above and beyond what is asked of him
 
#11
#11
Im afraid we are just reaching here to put a sugar coating on a rotten piece of meat. I try to be an optimist about UT football but this years recruiting stinks. It will probably hurt us over the next 3 years. Seriously, would you rather have our class or Alabamas class this year? I think a lot of recruits got turned off early to Tennessee this year due to the National perception of the Tennessee program along with Phils uncertain future that was being potrayed earlier in the season. The assistant coaching changes just added to the perfect storm of bad recruiting. There is no way for us to know if any of it is due to the coaching staffs efforts in recruiting this year. Who knows?

We are going to need a great year this year on the field along with a great recovery recruiting class next year to have a chance to overcome this years class. Then again, maybe we will get lucky and some of these recruits will be sleepers and turn out fantastic. We can only hope
 
#12
#12
neylanddrive said:
Im afraid we are just reaching here to put a sugar coating on a rotten piece of meat. I try to be an optimist about UT football but this years recruiting stinks. It will probably hurt us over the next 3 years. Seriously, would you rather have our class or Alabamas class this year? I think a lot of recruits got turned off early to Tennessee this year due to the National perception of the Tennessee program along with Phils uncertain future that was being potrayed earlier in the season. The assistant coaching changes just added to the perfect storm of bad recruiting. There is no way for us to know if any of it is due to the coaching staffs efforts in recruiting this year. Who knows?

We are going to need a great year this year on the field along with a great recovery recruiting class next year to have a chance to overcome this years class. Then again, maybe we will get lucky and some of these recruits will be sleepers and turn out fantastic. We can only hope
Click to expand...

While I, in fact, think you actually made a nice post you are in error as to why the thread was started. There was no mention of the TN '08 class made in the original post or I'm pretty sure the others following. I was just surprised that, no kidding, the MAJORITY of the AP All SEC team (27 to 24) is comprised of players rated by Rivals as 3* or less. It's just a fact I stumbled across and threw out here that is true regardless of one's team affiliation. Otherwise, I pretty much agree with your assessment.
 
#13
#13
I thought 5* just meant the kid could come in day one and make an impact at the college level. It doesn't mean he is the best player on the field.

It is reasonable to assume that some kids reach their potential faster in life and may plateau. This or that the fact that some people start believing their press and cease to advance.
 
#14
#14
totally meaningless observation, of course there are more 3 and 4 star kids on the list, simply because there are more of them.
 
#15
#15
TennTradition said:
I've heard that OL is a very hard place to predict talent, so it isn't a huge surprise that this is where you see so many 2* players coming in. It is also worth remembering that there are a lot more 3* players than 4* and a lot more 4* players than 5*. But, the point is no less important - 3* and even 2* players can make true impacts.
Click to expand...

OL and DL are both hard to evaluate because any kid that is 6-4 260 lbs should look dominant while playing high school ball.

When they get to college and actually get hit by someone as big as them, some start to develop vaginosis (a nice term for being a p***y). They don't like the contact.

And then there are some who can't learn the technique to be a good OL or DL. Leverage is just as good if not better than strength.
 
#16
#16
rexvol said:
totally meaningless observation, of course there are more 3 and 4 star kids on the list, simply because there are more of them.
Click to expand...

Dude, the nuances of the math are obvious and have been covered but to issue that kind of dismissal is absurd. I wasn't, nor should anyone, be surprised that some lesser regarded players exceed their ratings and some higher regarded ones fail. That the MAJORITY of ALL-SEC players were rated 3* or less is another thing entirely and frankly surprised me.

This isn't about some hard working 3* player beating out his 4* competition on any given squad. This is about there are 2* players, 7 in fact, that are considered among the best at their position IN THE ENTIRE SEC regardless of team and you don't find that the least bit interesting?
 
#17
#17
We get that there are more total 3 and 4 star players ranked on the sites and therefore more 3 and 4 star players on the All-SEC teams. The point you are missing is that these numbers show that there will be 3 and 4, and even 2 star, players on the All-SEC team in 3-4 years. As you said, there are not enough 5 star players on make up the entire All-SEC team. So, how in the world are you going to tell me right now that the 2,3, and 4 star players on the All-SEC team in 3-4 years will not be the 2,3,4 star players that UT signed?
 
#19
#19
Nice work putting all of this information together. It must have taken some time, so thank you.
My quick observation is that Rivals or whoever was pretty accurate at the skill positions (WR, RB, QB).
 
#20
#20
JZVOL said:
Easy answer is we suck at player development.
Click to expand...

In all fairness 2 of those All-SEC 3* players were ours.

And thanks Dawson for the prop. Once I got started I just kept digging. You appear correct in the skill positions on offense. It appears to be nearly a crap shoot with linemen though.
 
#21
#21
Your welcome. You are right about lineman. Very difficult to evaluate.

Could someone go back and look at Dorsey, John Henderson, and Albert Haynesworth. I would love to see what the were ranked out of high school.
 
#23
#23
Dorsey was a 4* rivals and 5* scout (Mahelona was ahead of him and Bolden was equal on rivals). Henderson was a HS AA in every service according to his Jaguar bio.
 
#24
#24
The '07 All SEC squad also included Hefney, so it might not be a very good measure of quality either.
 
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