Devaun Swafford's production more than a dream for UT

[kamoshika]

The Tennessee staff knew they were putting a lot of pressure on the local walk-on. Now they expect even more this season.

“We’ve asked a lot of him,” Jones said Tuesday. “And here’s a young man that, really, didn’t play much defense in high school. And here he is, your starting nickel in games, going into ‘The Swamp’ and playing at Florida and having a big interception.

“He’s done a great job. And we really need him to step up, especially in our special teams game."
Devaun Swafford

 

[smashmouth98]

I'm anxious to see what type of role he plays this year.

 

[Vol Revolver]

Looks like starting safety if he sticks

 

[ACvol3]

Crazy how these 2*/3* guys are fitting right in with all these elite 4*/5* guys.)

 

[Giveem6]

Crazy how these 2*/3* guys are fitting right in with all these elite 4*/5* guys.)

Funny you say this, if I recall correct there were a dozen or more 3* players get drafted in the first round of last years draft so no sir not really.

 

[KingtUT]

Crazy how these 2*/3* guys are fitting right in with all these elite 4*/5* guys.)

Fitting in like weeds in a perfectly kept yard. Granted, there are some exceptions but the fewer chances we take on 2* players the better.

 

[VolFan4Life87]

Fitting in like weeds in a perfectly kept yard. Granted, there are some exceptions but the fewer chances we take on 2* players the better.

I get what you're saying but the thing is regardless of how many stars a kid has out next to his name, you're taking a chance on ANY player, though it's perceived to be less of one if the player is highly touted. Recruiting services aren't always right and IIRC Jones has a history of coaching up 2/3* players right into the NFL. Let me ask you this - did Cam Sutton stand out like weeds last year?

 

[Vol4life25]

I get what you're saying but the thing is regardless of how many stars a kid has out next to his name, you're taking a chance on ANY player, though it's perceived to be less of one if the player is highly touted. Recruiting services aren't always right and IIRC Jones has a history of coaching up 2/3* players right into the NFL. Let me ask you this - did Cam Sutton stand out like weeds last year?

They're 1,000 more 2/3 stars then 4/5 stars, so of course more of them get drafted, a lot better chance.

 

[VolFan4Life87]

They're 1,000 more 2/3 stars then 4/5 stars, so of course more of them get drafted, a lot better chance.

My point is - a lot remains to be seen of coach Jones, however I don't know that anyone could provide a strong argument that he isn't a stellar recruiter. I can only speak for myself, but I will trust his eye for talent and other intangibles that fit into his system and vision for rebuilding the program over simply discounting a player chosen by this staff because of their star rating.

 

[mdrew27]

Funny you say this, if I recall correct there were a dozen or more 3* players get drafted in the first round of last years draft so no sir not really.

The odds of a 5 star being a first rounder is almost 1000 times better chances than a three star. Taking into account the percentages of 5 vs three star players.

Now Butch finding three stars that compete day one, and being as talented, in college like their 5 star counter parts, those odds are extremely high. Butch knows talent.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

It will be interesting to see if Swafford really does hold on to that starting spot at safety throughout camp. You've got to think that a newcomer will challenge him as camp moves forward.

 

[walkenvol]

it will be interesting to see if swafford really does hold on to that starting spot at safety throughout camp. You've got to think that a newcomer will challenge him as camp moves forward.

tkj

 

[DownTheField]

They're 1,000 more 2/3 stars then 4/5 stars, so of course more of them get drafted, a lot better chance.

hmmm… this reasoning is not correct

i'll let you think on it a bit

 

[MrBiggles]

Fitting in like weeds in a perfectly kept yard. Granted, there are some exceptions but the fewer chances we take on 2* players the better.

I'd like to take a chance on a local 2* kid as a walk-on over a 2-3* a scholly player from another part of the country like Dooley was doing.

 

[Milehigh_Vol]

Dooley didn't think the skill set was in high school football in Tennessee was good for some reason. I know its not Texas or Florida but still its fairly strong.

 

[onevol74]

Fitting in like weeds in a perfectly kept yard. Granted, there are some exceptions but the fewer chances we take on 2* players the better.

Mr. Moseley says "Hello."

 

[Plano Vol]

Swafford is a Dobyns-Bennett product. His stars, while fewer, carry greater weight.

 

[VOLinPD]

Dooley didn't think the skill set was in high school football in Tennessee was good for some reason. I know its not Texas or Florida but still its fairly strong.

The core of our '90's teams (especially OL) was built on Tennessee High School players like Al Wilson, Eric Westmoreland, Jermaine Copeland, Chad Clifton, Little Man Stewart, Trey Teague, Scott Wells, etc., and it is refreshing to see that happening again.

 

[865Original]

And to think some people was saying he didnt deserve the TN grey shirt opportunity, One of my faves on last year 2nd team D.

 

[turambar85]

Funny you say this, if I recall correct there were a dozen or more 3* players get drafted in the first round of last years draft so no sir not really.

In any given year there are only 30 or so 5 star players and 280-300 4 star players. There are 125 FBS schools each taking roughly 20 players per year. That means that division one schools sign roughly 2,500 players every year. 2,200 or so of these 2,500 are 3 stars or lower.

Imagine that a 5 star recruit has a 60% chance of panning out, a 4 star has a 40% chance, and a 3 star or lower has a 10% chance. That would mean that there are only 18 5 stars that make it, 120 4 stars, and 220 3 stars or lower. More 3 stars will be drafted than 4 or 5 stars, sure. But it is still very surprising when any given 2 or 3 star recruit ends up being a very good, NFL caliber player.

There is a distinction between the probability of the group producing good players, and the probability of any given player in the group being good. Base rates are important.

 

[vollygirl]

The odds of a 5 star being a first rounder is almost 1000 times better chances than a three star. Taking into account the percentages of 5 vs three star players.

Now Butch finding three stars that compete day one, and being as talented, in college like their 5 star counter parts, those odds are extremely high. Butch knows talent.

The 2013 first round pick was a rivals 2* kid.

 

[FiremedicVOL127]

Fitting in like weeds in a perfectly kept yard. Granted, there are some exceptions but the fewer chances we take on 2* players the better.

It's kinda funny but when I look at the roster I don't see any stars beside there name. All I see is that they are Volunteers and are giving there all for my beloved VOLS!

 

[DC Vol]

The 2013 first round pick was a rivals 2* kid.

Khalil Mack (6th) was a composite 2* and completely unranked by 247.

 

[turambar85]

hmmm… this reasoning is not correct

i'll let you think on it a bit

It isn't incorrect, it just isn't fleshed out. They were just saying that you can't ignore base rates when calculating probabilities. Unless the gap between the odds of any given 3 and 5 star player being drafted is greater than or equal to the difference in the number of 3 and 5 star players, you will have more 3 than 5 star players being drafted early in the draft.

 

[big harry]