Devaun Swafford's production more than a dream for UT

[volinbama256]

Crazy how these 2*/3* guys are fitting right in with all these elite 4*/5* guys.)

Chip on shoulder to prove they belong and can hang, along with good coaching and positive reinforcement trumps *stars every time.....

 

[orangebloodgmc]

In any given year there are only 30 or so 5 star players and 280-300 4 star players. There are 125 FBS schools each taking roughly 20 players per year. That means that division one schools sign roughly 2,500 players every year. 2,200 or so of these 2,500 are 3 stars or lower.

Imagine that a 5 star recruit has a 60% chance of panning out, a 4 star has a 40% chance, and a 3 star or lower has a 10% chance. That would mean that there are only 18 5 stars that make it, 120 4 stars, and 220 3 stars or lower. More 3 stars will be drafted than 4 or 5 stars, sure. But it is still very surprising when any given 2 or 3 star recruit ends up being a very good, NFL caliber player.

There is a distinction between the probability of the group producing good players, and the probability of any given player in the group being good. Base rates are important.

Just because some self-important guru takes it upon themselves to label a young athlete a 3*, it doesn't necessarily mean that is what that kid is in talent and potential. It may well be that CBJ and company are better at assessing that ability. :question:

 

[turambar85]

Just because some self-important guru takes it upon themselves to label a young athlete a 3*, it doesn't necessarily mean that is what that kid is in talent and potential. It may well be that CBJ and company are better at assessing that ability. :question:

True. But so is every respectable coach at a major FBS school. The odds are still against a 2/3 ending up being a star, though it can very well happen.

 

[dcm3w]

I think one has to look at the potential than the stars sometimes. A lot of the 2-3* will be the same product as they were in high school. No game breakers but still valuable for depth and solidifying positions. However, 2-3 stars might not have reached their talent. Like Moseley (i know he wasn't a 2 star), he was 145 coming in to play in the secondary of a SEC team against receivers running 4.5s, and being 6ft, and 200+ pounds, but the staff knew they could add the 30 pounds and keep his speed. Some players would be hella slow with 30 extra pounds. Coaches look at how they will eventually fill out and if there are any skills that can be coached to be a good player. That's why you see huge 7ft international monsters in basketball being drafted high. They could turn out to be a huge factor or bust (like most) but the thing is that they have the body and a ceiling for improvement. It's just determining the ceiling height of potential and then reaching it that is the hard part.

 

[K-town Vol Fan]

Im from Kingsport and I remember when Swafford and Foreman committed they were a package deal and Foreman was supposed to be the prize and Swafford was just extra who was just barely worthy of a scholarship, but I don't think theres any doubt who has had a greater impact on the team so far.

 

[livefaith]

The odds of a 5 star being a first rounder is almost 1000 times better chances than a three star. Taking into account the percentages of 5 vs three star players.

Now Butch finding three stars that compete day one, and being as talented, in college like their 5 star counter parts, those odds are extremely high. Butch knows talent.

Excellent post. Too many people do not realize how relatively common 3* players are and how few 5*s exist in comparison.

Butch, nor any other good coach could care less what the recruiting(marketing) services says @ a recruit. The staff must do it's own evaluations to determine, in there opinion, what is the pecking order on their recruiting board. Unlike Rivals etc, the staff must factor in the "fit" to their particular system. For example, Saban may desire a QB more than Jones due to his system, where both staffs do the exact analysis of that QB.

But, the poster above is correct. The odds of a 5* being 1st round talent is far far above the odds of a 3*. The point is that the services are inaccurate, but at the same time have a level of statistical accuracy. There will always be the 5* busts (Kenny O'Neal) and the 3* beasts(Dan Williams).

Yet, while they are not accurate to a man, they are accurate in a general statistical sense. By and large, championship caliber teams have always had recent history of highly ranked classes loaded with 4-5*(rated) recruits. While every program finds diamonds in the rough (Cam Sutton), they are dominant due to the statistical realities of the ratings. Have you noticed Alabama's on field results (vomit!) since Nick came and started landing #1 ranked classes?

If people understood statistics better, then it would stop a lot of these ignorant posts @ "3* studs" and "5* busts" etc.

Bottom line for us ... If Butch is taking us back to the Promised Land, then our recruiting classes will be stacked with 4* & 5* players as ranked by the recruiting services. And, sometimes the 3* guys will shock the world and prove to be elite too.

 

[livefaith]

Im from Kingsport and I remember when Swafford and Foreman committed they were a package deal and Foreman was supposed to be the prize and Swafford was just extra who was just barely worthy of a scholarship, but I don't think theres any doubt who has had a greater impact on the team so far.

With all due respect to both players, I don't think I would crown anyone All SEC just yet.

Neither sophomore has even started a game for a woeful SEC defense yet, iirc. Foreman played pretty well as a backup FR last season. And, Swafford had a big play against UF by taking advantage of the QB pressure. Yet, he was routinely schooled (along with the rest of our defense) throughout the season. There is no shame in getting beaten as a true FR, by upperclassmen. That happens to everyone (Eric Berry).

Foreman looks to have been passed by talented newcomers, and I expect that our glut of highly talented DBs will overtake Swafford as well. If not by game one, then early in the season.

I'm 100% FOR both kids (especially a walk on whose earned a scholly). But realistically, I expect that their roles will be to provide quality depth as we recruit the kind of talent necessary to win national titles.

 

[Vols_n_Pugs]

With all due respect to both players, I don't think I would crown anyone All SEC just yet.

Neither sophomore has even started a game for a woeful SEC defense yet, iirc. Foreman played pretty well as a backup FR last season. And, Swafford had a big play against UF by taking advantage of the QB pressure. Yet, he was routinely schooled (along with the rest of our defense) throughout the season. There is no shame in getting beaten as a true FR, by upperclassmen. That happens to everyone (Eric Berry).

Foreman looks to have been passed by talented newcomers, and I expect that our glut of highly talented DBs will overtake Swafford as well. If not by game one, then early in the season.

I'm 100% FOR both kids (especially a walk on whose earned a scholly). But realistically, I expect that their roles will be to provide quality depth as we recruit the kind of talent necessary to win national titles.

+1

 

[daj2576]

It isn't incorrect, it just isn't fleshed out. They were just saying that you can't ignore base rates when calculating probabilities. Unless the gap between the odds of any given 3 and 5 star player being drafted is greater than or equal to the difference in the number of 3 and 5 star players, you will have more 3 than 5 star players being drafted early in the draft.

I've read somewhere that the general rule of flow through from H.S. to pro is 30/15/5. That is 30% of 5 star players, 15% of 4 star players, 5% of 3 or below star players. Don't quote me on that, it's been awhile since I've read it.

 

[VOODOO DIABLO]

With all due respect to both players, I don't think I would crown anyone All SEC just yet.

Neither sophomore has even started a game for a woeful SEC defense yet, iirc. Foreman played pretty well as a backup FR last season. And, Swafford had a big play against UF by taking advantage of the QB pressure. Yet, he was routinely schooled (along with the rest of our defense) throughout the season. There is no shame in getting beaten as a true FR, by upperclassmen. That happens to everyone (Eric Berry).

Foreman looks to have been passed by talented newcomers, and I expect that our glut of highly talented DBs will overtake Swafford as well. If not by game one, then early in the season.

I'm 100% FOR both kids (especially a walk on whose earned a scholly). But realistically, I expect that their roles will be to provide quality depth as we recruit the kind of talent necessary to win national titles.

Well your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Roustabout]

This is why camps, scouting and networking are so important. You also have to have bright coaches who know what to look for.