DG's Quick Thoughts After The Florida Win

[movinonup]

Bottom line is that we are 5-1 and with a win ( although Ugly with a capital U) over Florida. I remember not too few years ago at this point in the season scouring the rest of the schedule to find 6 possible wins so we could go to a bowl game and not being able to find them. This is better !

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

What a crazy game. I'm happy we got the win, but I've definitely had to readjust my expectations for the season after the past 2 weeks. Here are my thoughts.

#1 Defense in the Country. I legitimately think we have the #1 D in America right now. This isn't simply Vol "homerism". We have been ranked #1 in defensive efficiency by FPI for almost the entire season. The D gave us a shot last week and the D won the game yesterday.

Negative yardage plays on D. The most amazing thing about this D is that I knew we had the advantage going into overtime, because we create so many negative yardage plays. Not many defenses can do that, but when you start in OT in medium-long FG range (42 yarder), a D that can push the other team back a few yards has a huge advantage. Big difference between 48 yard FG and 40 yard FG. As it turns out, we would've won regardless with the touchdown, but pushing Florida back and lowering their odds for a FG are huge in OT.

#47 in Offensive Efficiency. We're #1 in defensive efficiency but only #47 on offense. That's 11th in the SEC, behind Florida and Mizzou, but ahead of Miss State and Kentucky. It's obvious this is where we have to get better down the stretch to have a shot at the playoffs.

Offensive playcalling. Everyone blames play calling when the offense struggles. I agree to some extent last week against Arkansas. I don't agree about the playcalling against Florida. It was much improved. It was execution that sucked. Nico missed 2 wide open WRs that could have been TD passes. We had our usual miscues as well. So I agree we didn't necessarily have the right game plan against Arky, but I thought Heupel and staff did a great job preparing for this one. If we executed well, this could've easily been a 38-17 win. I felt like we were the better team throughout the game; just too many miscues.

Nico is slumping, but he'll get better. I'm not down on Nico, but he's definitely in a bit of a slump right now. I think what's happened is that his first few games, defenses didn't have any footage on him and he could kinda do what he did by default without many issues. Now that teams are able to study him on film, his mistakes are getting magnified. We all saw it with the INT that resulted from starring down his WR and throwing into basically quadruple coverage. Easy to be frustrated with Nico right now, but he's still basically a 1st year QB and learning. He'll get better. We're frustrated he hasn't turned into Peyton Manning into 7 games, but Peyton Manning didn't turn into "Peyton Manning" in 7 games either. He clearly has the arm talent and when he's in a rhythm, he looks as good as any QB in America. Even with his mistakes, he's made several spectacular plays!

Nico looked much better after getting into a rhythm. While Nico did struggle, he looks so much better once he gets into a rhythm. The incomplete long shot late in the game was beautiful (even if we didn't come down with it) and the sideline pass to Squirrel was spectacular (and insane how good Squirrel is at staying in bounds). Coaches may need to find ways to make things a bit easier for Nico early on till he can get into a groove.

Bye-week after Bama. We get a bye week after Bama and before Kentucky. We desperately need it. Hoping we can start figuring things out on offense and with the exception of UTEP and maybe Miss State, none of the rest of the games on the schedule look like freebies any more. Vandy is actually pretty good this year.

Readjusting expectations. Admit this was the most optimistic I've been pre-season in a long time. I thought we had an elite D heading into the season (and it's even better than I thought), but I thought offense would at least be top-half of the SEC and thus far it's not. We have an outside shot at a 10-2 season, but right now, I'm adjusting my expectations a bit and thinking 9-3 would be a success and 8-4 is the expectation. Every game is winnable, but we also have 2 very tough matchups with Bama and Georgia and 2 games that could be tougher than expected against Kentucky and Vandy.

BEAT BAMA! All that said, we'll come out ready to play versus Bama. If we play like we did this week, we'll lose, but frankly if Bama plays like they did this week, they'd lose, too. Both teams will be better on Saturday.

That's all for my completely unimportant thoughts!

BEAT BAMA and GBO!!!

Good assessment. I can't think of anything I don't agree with. I definitely thought the playcalling was better, even gutsy at time. I still can't believe we went for it on 4th and 1 at the 10 yard line. Also kudos for throwing downfield in the 4th quarter to try to ice the game instead of running it.

 

[hound dog hillbil]

Where has the use of our tightends gone to.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

SEC is such a dogs breakfast this year, its so disappointing that it was all there for us if we had it together. FINALLY we have a defense we can be proud of and our offense is pathetic.

Alabama seems to be struggling this year as well so in Knoxville we still have a decent chance I think. But one thing is clear. There will not be a single gimme game (ok maybe UTep) left on our schedule (certainly not Vanderbilt).

Yeah, my expectations have significantly lowered. I think we will be suuuuuuuper lucky if we can pull off 10-2. More realistic considering injuries of having to grind it out every week to the utmost is 8-4. A baseline hopeful is that we can get 9-3 only losing to bama and georgia.

What hurts the most though is to watch Texas, who also has a young QB, blow the doors off of teams we struggle with. They are not having issues. You are not hearing all this young QB crap from them, no, Arch is just taking care of business. Why cant we have nice things like that? I mean, thats what we paid for, isnt it?

Granted, I know CJH tried to give Nico what he needed in getting Herd, etc who has turned out to be pretty useless with Campbell. But the truly great have to rise when adversity comes at you and learn to scramble and scamper downfield. That cool confidence in your abilities to get you out of the situation so you can hit your targets. Need more out of Nico than he is giving right now.

Sorry saw that it was posted by someone else that Quinn was QB. Delete this post.

 

[BACKDOC]

What a crazy game. I'm happy we got the win, but I've definitely had to readjust my expectations for the season after the past 2 weeks. Here are my thoughts.

#1 Defense in the Country. I legitimately think we have the #1 D in America right now. This isn't simply Vol "homerism". We have been ranked #1 in defensive efficiency by FPI for almost the entire season. The D gave us a shot last week and the D won the game yesterday.

Negative yardage plays on D. The most amazing thing about this D is that I knew we had the advantage going into overtime, because we create so many negative yardage plays. Not many defenses can do that, but when you start in OT in medium-long FG range (42 yarder), a D that can push the other team back a few yards has a huge advantage. Big difference between 48 yard FG and 40 yard FG. As it turns out, we would've won regardless with the touchdown, but pushing Florida back and lowering their odds for a FG are huge in OT.

#47 in Offensive Efficiency. We're #1 in defensive efficiency but only #47 on offense. That's 11th in the SEC, behind Florida and Mizzou, but ahead of Miss State and Kentucky. It's obvious this is where we have to get better down the stretch to have a shot at the playoffs.

Offensive playcalling. Everyone blames play calling when the offense struggles. I agree to some extent last week against Arkansas. I don't agree about the playcalling against Florida. It was much improved. It was execution that sucked. Nico missed 2 wide open WRs that could have been TD passes. We had our usual miscues as well. So I agree we didn't necessarily have the right game plan against Arky, but I thought Heupel and staff did a great job preparing for this one. If we executed well, this could've easily been a 38-17 win. I felt like we were the better team throughout the game; just too many miscues.

Nico is slumping, but he'll get better. I'm not down on Nico, but he's definitely in a bit of a slump right now. I think what's happened is that his first few games, defenses didn't have any footage on him and he could kinda do what he did by default without many issues. Now that teams are able to study him on film, his mistakes are getting magnified. We all saw it with the INT that resulted from starring down his WR and throwing into basically quadruple coverage. Easy to be frustrated with Nico right now, but he's still basically a 1st year QB and learning. He'll get better. We're frustrated he hasn't turned into Peyton Manning into 7 games, but Peyton Manning didn't turn into "Peyton Manning" in 7 games either. He clearly has the arm talent and when he's in a rhythm, he looks as good as any QB in America. Even with his mistakes, he's made several spectacular plays!

Nico looked much better after getting into a rhythm. While Nico did struggle, he looks so much better once he gets into a rhythm. The incomplete long shot late in the game was beautiful (even if we didn't come down with it) and the sideline pass to Squirrel was spectacular (and insane how good Squirrel is at staying in bounds). Coaches may need to find ways to make things a bit easier for Nico early on till he can get into a groove.

Bye-week after Bama. We get a bye week after Bama and before Kentucky. We desperately need it. Hoping we can start figuring things out on offense and with the exception of UTEP and maybe Miss State, none of the rest of the games on the schedule look like freebies any more. Vandy is actually pretty good this year.

Readjusting expectations. Admit this was the most optimistic I've been pre-season in a long time. I thought we had an elite D heading into the season (and it's even better than I thought), but I thought offense would at least be top-half of the SEC and thus far it's not. We have an outside shot at a 10-2 season, but right now, I'm adjusting my expectations a bit and thinking 9-3 would be a success and 8-4 is the expectation. Every game is winnable, but we also have 2 very tough matchups with Bama and Georgia and 2 games that could be tougher than expected against Kentucky and Vandy.

BEAT BAMA! All that said, we'll come out ready to play versus Bama. If we play like we did this week, we'll lose, but frankly if Bama plays like they did this week, they'd lose, too. Both teams will be better on Saturday.

That's all for my completely unimportant thoughts!

BEAT BAMA and GBO!!!

The only bright spot; UGA and Bama both have problems too.

 

[rdk4121]

Agreed with pretty much everything, except Kentucky is awful. Our defense should have a field day against them. They scored 13 points at home against Vandy, and Vandy's defense isn't even good. They do have a good defense, but our athletes have always given them trouble. I'm more worried about Mississippi state, but since they both at home, neither should be a big issue.

@ Vandy will be a fairly tough game, but that will be a pro UT crowd for sure, and Vandy still had several tough games before that matchup.

 

[pimo1]

Preseason If you'd told people we would be 5-1, with wins over Florida and Oklahoma, at this point in the season they'd be thrilled. The hype train that started after the first few weeks made some folks lose their minds. 9-10 regular season wins was what most people expected on the high end. We are on pace for that easily.

A few things have contributed to people being so down right now when we shouldn't be.
1. The aforementioned hype train after face stomping 4 mid to terrible teams. NC State and Oklahoma were both way worse than expected and Arkansas was better than advertised.
2. The crazy delusion that Nico was better than Joe last year which carried into this year with folks thinking he was gonna win a Heisman.
3. People thought that the unit we had to worry most about this year was the secondary.. it was the Oline just like it was last year. Our secondary last season was overly blamed and our Oline flew under the radar as a problem. Run blocking they are great to elite.... Pass blocking is another story. I do not think they are terrible this year or were last year they are just a point of weakness in the passing game.

 

[camp_steveo]

I'm still at 10-2. I haven't seen anything out of Alabama that makes me think they are unbeatable. Vandy controlled their game, and USCe competed with the Tide all the way to the last second. There is no reason to count this game as a loss.

As a matter of fact, Georgia didn't exactly look like world beaters in their game against Alabama. I don't predict the Vols will be able to win in Athens, but I am not changing my expectations to 8-4.

10-2 is my expectation. Everything else you said is good.

 

[MiramarVol]

Bottom line is that we are 5-1 and with a win ( although Ugly with a capital U) over Florida. I remember not too few years ago at this point in the season scouring the rest of the schedule to find 6 possible wins so we could go to a bowl game and not being able to find them. This is better !

Six years ago, we'd thumped our chests, and sang Rocky Top to the wee hours of the morning, but our unappreciative fan base has forgotten where Heup has brought us from and the verge that we are on. No one said we were over rated when we handled Oklahoma. Now, Nico is overpaid. We want coaches fired etc. I'm like you, 95% of D1 colleges would love to be 5-1.

 

[orangepenez]

Thanks, @DiderotsGhost ! Always love your breakdown. I agree with you about Nico playing better when in a rhythm. Hard to get into a rhythm without ample time to let the play unfold and throw. If the OL was half decent in pass protection I think we’d see much improved qb play and big play execution. Super original take here I know. Hate to beat a dead horse but it’s true.