Do late losses really count more?

#1
HooahVol

HooahVol

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#1
Saban recently said on Finebaum “My issue with the playoff is that if you lose late in the season it has a much greater impact than if you lose early in the season." A sentiment that I have always agreed with. However, reality does not exactly support that hypothesis as strongly as you would think. Take for example Saban and Alabama this past season. In fact, according to CBS sports, of the 13 CFP teams that entered the postseason with a regular-season loss, five of those defeats took place in November including both Alabama and Georgia in 2017 -- both of the participants in the most recent CFP National Championship. That means 38.5 percent of playoff teams have lost in the final month of the regular season. For perspective teams that lose late in the season are actually more likely to make the CFP than teams that lose in October or September. What's more, only two of those losses by eventual playoff teams -- Ohio State in 2014 to Virginia Tech and Alabama in 2015 to Ole Miss -- took place in September.

I found it interesting. I have always assumed a late loss was worse. I guess I was wrong.
 
#2
#2
I think its a tie breaker if anything. I would also want a fine line on what is early vs late? seems like there are three "times" of the season. Early, middle, late, basically September, October, November. I would say a loss in September may matter less than a loss in November, but October? doubtful. my thinking on early is that it gives teams a chance to prove they have fixed the issue.

as a trend it looks better as well to start with a loss and go perfect for the rest than it does to be perfect till almost the end and then lose.

I would also say the metric of using who got in isn't the right one. I would want to look at those who didn't, as that is what we are arguing
 
#3
#3
Hawkeye4588 said:
Saban recently said on Finebaum “My issue with the playoff is that if you lose late in the season it has a much greater impact than if you lose early in the season." A sentiment that I have always agreed with. However, reality does not exactly support that hypothesis as strongly as you would think. Take for example Saban and Alabama this past season. In fact, according to CBS sports, of the 13 CFP teams that entered the postseason with a regular-season loss, five of those defeats took place in November including both Alabama and Georgia in 2017 -- both of the participants in the most recent CFP National Championship. That means 38.5 percent of playoff teams have lost in the final month of the regular season. For perspective teams that lose late in the season are actually more likely to make the CFP than teams that lose in October or September. What's more, only two of those losses by eventual playoff teams -- Ohio State in 2014 to Virginia Tech and Alabama in 2015 to Ole Miss -- took place in September.

I found it interesting. I have always assumed a late loss was worse. I guess I was wrong.
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I think a better way of saying it is that it is better to lose a game that you are "supposed to" win early in the season rather than late.

I have no way to prove this, but I bet that if Ohio St lost to Virginia Tech or Alabama lost to Ole Miss in November rather than September, the odds of it hurting them more are much greater. 2008 Florida had a bad "early loss" too. Recency bias.
 
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#4
#4
Those are all good points and I agree about the type of loss affecting outcome.

One thing is for certain, Bama has it's own metric. I guess you can even argue they have earned it after such a long run of success, but the fact remains Bama can absorb a loss that few schools could escape from.
 
#7
#7
Hawkeye4588 said:
Those are all good points and I agree about the type of loss affecting outcome.

One thing is for certain, Bama has it's own metric. I guess you can even argue they have earned it after such a long run of success, but the fact remains Bama can absorb a loss that few schools could escape from.
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Now I would agree with that. If we're talking about any school other than Alabama, Ohio St gets in the playoff over that school last year.

I had no issue with the decision - I think Alabama was the better team and deserved it, plus Ohio St had been the beneficiary of a similar situation the year before - but I still think it's an accurate statement. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt, deservedly so.
 
#8
#8
No doubt. The weird thing is, like you, I have no real problem with it. Don't get me wrong, I hate Bama, but I also respect what Saban has done there. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.

BTW, if we are talking about schools that seem to always get the benefit of the doubt and do not deserve it I would throw in FSU. It seems every off season we hear how great FSU is going to be that season and for awhile now they have not delivered. Maybe Taggart will change that.
 
#9
#9
Hawkeye4588 said:
No doubt. The weird thing is, like you, I have no real problem with it. Don't get me wrong, I hate Bama, but I also respect what Saban has done there. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.

BTW, if we are talking about schools that seem to always get the benefit of the doubt and do not deserve it I would throw in FSU. It seems every off season we hear how great FSU is going to be that season and for awhile now they have not delivered. Maybe Taggart will change that.
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It honestly isn't the school, their football team, or Saban that I dislike. It's a lot of their fans that drive me crazy (except bamawriter and tusktimes :)).
 
#13
#13
Hawkeye4588 said:
Those are all good points and I agree about the type of loss affecting outcome.

One thing is for certain, Bama has it's own metric. I guess you can even argue they have earned it after such a long run of success, but the fact remains Bama can absorb a loss that few schools could escape from.
Click to expand...

Bama was #1 in the polls all season and beat the ever-loving snot bubbles out of a lot of teams in the SEC. That builds equity with the now "eye test" going on with real, live, humans. Plus, since 2014, you get 4 picks, big difference. Didn't save us in 2013.
 
#16
#16
Hawkeye4588 said:
No doubt. The weird thing is, like you, I have no real problem with it. Don't get me wrong, I hate Bama, but I also respect what Saban has done there. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.

BTW, if we are talking about schools that seem to always get the benefit of the doubt and do not deserve it I would throw in FSU. It seems every off season we hear how great FSU is going to be that season and for awhile now they have not delivered. Maybe Taggart will change that.
Click to expand...

The CFP needs FSU to be good. They need Clemson to be good. They also need teams like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma to be battling for their conference championships, because those are the teams that are going to draw eyes come playoff time. That's why those teams will always get the preseason hype. Same thing with Notre Dame.
 
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#17
#17
MyBloodRunnethOrange said:
The CFP needs FSU to be good. They need Clemson to be good. They also need teams like OSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma to be battling for their conference championships, because those are the teams that are going to draw eyes come playoff time. That's why those teams will always get the preseason hype. Same thing with Notre Dame.
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Preseason hype also = a high(er) preseason ranking, which the CFP says they pay no attention to but you know it influences their thinking.
 
#18
#18
Hawkeye4588 said:
No doubt. The weird thing is, like you, I have no real problem with it. Don't get me wrong, I hate Bama, but I also respect what Saban has done there. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.

BTW, if we are talking about schools that seem to always get the benefit of the doubt and do not deserve it I would throw in FSU. It seems every off season we hear how great FSU is going to be that season and for awhile now they have not delivered. Maybe Taggart will change that.
Click to expand...

Great programs get the benefit of the doubt!
 
#19
#19
Late losses? what difference does it make what time the game ends....a loss is a loss:D
 
#20
#20
I think one of the biggest examples of a late loss affecting the season is Oklahoma State in 2011. Second to last game loss to Iowa State ended up knocking them out of the BCS National Championship game that year. Even with a blowout of Oklahoma at the end of the season, they couldn't pop back into that #2 spot which Alabama was sitting on.
 
#21
#21
It got UF it’s title in 06

Thank you UCLA btw

USC would have beat the hell out OSU too but somehow in that time people were seriously pushing OSU/Michigan smh

UF embarrassingly destroying a heavy fav in
OSU

Changed the media’s perception of the sec and big 10
 
#22
#22
Alabama did not deserve to be in the playoff. It is the same argument. They could not win their league and got the benefit of sitting out a game that Georgia had to play.

It is a back door title. Alabama has two of those.

Late losses did not matter at all.
 
#23
#23
LibertyVol said:
Alabama did not deserve to be in the playoff. It is the same argument. They could not win their league and got the benefit of sitting out a game that Georgia had to play.

It is a back door title. Alabama has two of those.

Late losses did not matter at all.
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Except that Wisconsin would have been in had they not lost after Bama. Same with Okie Lite in 2011.
 
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#24
#24
Hawkeye4588 said:
Saban recently said on Finebaum “My issue with the playoff is that if you lose late in the season it has a much greater impact than if you lose early in the season." A sentiment that I have always agreed with. However, reality does not exactly support that hypothesis as strongly as you would think. Take for example Saban and Alabama this past season. In fact, according to CBS sports, of the 13 CFP teams that entered the postseason with a regular-season loss, five of those defeats took place in November including both Alabama and Georgia in 2017 -- both of the participants in the most recent CFP National Championship. That means 38.5 percent of playoff teams have lost in the final month of the regular season. For perspective teams that lose late in the season are actually more likely to make the CFP than teams that lose in October or September. What's more, only two of those losses by eventual playoff teams -- Ohio State in 2014 to Virginia Tech and Alabama in 2015 to Ole Miss -- took place in September.

I found it interesting. I have always assumed a late loss was worse. I guess I was wrong.
Click to expand...

They definitely don't hurt Alabama. It actually benefits them. Lose late, don't play an extra game in the SEC Champ but still get to play for the NC. Not once but twice!
 
#25
#25
bamawriter said:
Except that Wisconsin would have been in had they not lost after Bama. Same with Okie Lite in 2011.
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They lost after Ala because they actually had to play in their conference championship game, just like Auburn. Wisconsin and Auburn both missed out on the playoffs because they were punished for winning their division. But Ala was rewarded twice for not even winning their own division, much less not having to play an extra game in the SEC Championship. Based on the no weight that conference championship games carry, Auburn, Wisc, Okla and Clemson should have been last yrs 4 teams in the CFP.Those would have been the 4 teams, had they been allowed to be on the same equal playing field Ala has. I guarantee if Ala/Aub roles had been reversed that Ala fans would have gone into hitman mode on the committee. There would have been tree's, buildings and communities in need of a rebuild after the riot it would have caused in Bammer land. I live amongst the Ala fan hypocrisy daily so you know I'm right about that.
 
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