Do the Recruiting Stars Matter, 2023 Draft

[LouderVol]

Alright so with the first round done, how do the draft picks translate into recruiting stars. because I know this argument is coming, and personally I hate when the numbers aren't provided, so I am providing it myself.

I am using 247. 247 typically nationally ranks about 1000s players a year.
the 32ish 5 stars make up 3.5%/1.7% of those players
the 270ish 4 stars make up 30%/15% of those players
the rest of the 600ish are 3 stars. 66.5%/33.3%
and then you have all of the guys who are not nationally ranked, typically there are at least as many of them as there are ranked guys. so that is why I am halving the percentages above.

#1. Bryce Young. #2 player nationally, 5*
#2. CJ Stroud. #42 player nationally, 4*
#3. WIll Anderson Jr. #17 player nationally, 5*
#4. Anthony Richardson. #204 player nationally, 4*
#5. Devon Witherspoon. completely unranked.
#6. Paris Johnson Jr. #9 player nationally, 5*
#7. Tyree Wilson. #424 player nationally. 3*
#8. Bijan Robinson. #15 player nationally. 5*
#9. Jalen Carter. #18 player nationally. 5*
#10. Darnell Wright. #10 player nationally. 5*
#11. Peter Skoronski. #113 player nationally. 4*
#12. Jahmyr Gibbs. #76 player nationally. 4*
#13. Lukas Van Ness. #1033 player nationally. 3*
#14. Broderick Jones. #11 player nationally 5*
#15. Will McDonald IV. # 787 player nationally, 3*
#16. Emmanuel Forbes. #186 player nationally. 4*
#17. Christian Gonzalez. #326 player nationally. 4*
#18. Jack Campbell. #662 player nationally. 3*
#19. Calijah Kancey. #837 player nationally. 3*
#20. Jaxon Smith-Njigba. #29 player nationally. 5*
#21. Quentin Johnston. #71 player nationally. 4*
#22. Zay Flowers. #1133 player nationally. 3*
#23. Jordan Addison. #275 player nationally. 4*
#24. Deonte Banks. #854 player nationally. 3*
#25. Dalton Kincaid. completely unranked.
#26. Mazi Smith. #106 player nationally. 4*
#27. Anton Harrison. #178 player nationally, 4*
#28. Myles Murphy. #7 player nationally. 5*
#29. Bryan Bresee. #1 player nationally. 5*
#30. Nolan Smith. #1 player nationally. 5*
#31. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, #2421 player nationally. 3*

 

[LouderVol]

if you considered the draft as one single high school class you can begin to break down the chances of getting drafted in the first round based generally on stars.

11 5stars
10 4stars
8 3stars
2 unranked

so just looking at the pure numbers, your best bet to be picked is to be a 5*. more 5* were chosen than anyone else.
now if we consider those stars as a percentage of how many typical players your chances of being drafted in any individual first round based on your star rating would be:

5 star: 11/32, 34% chance of being drafted in the first round
4 star: 10/270, 3.7% chance of being drafted in the first round.
3 star: 8/700, 1.1% chance of being drafted in the first round (or .3% if you consider the ranking down to the #2421)
Unranked: 2/???? there was a general trend of each star being worth a factor of 10, so I am going to assume you have about a .03% chance of getting drafted if you are unranked.

 

[LouderVol]

I will try to do similar breakdowns for the next rounds too.

 

[walkenvol]

You’ve got 2 guys both ranked #1?

While 247 did a pretty good job identifying some top talent IMO, some folks will ask what about the guys ranked 3,4,5,6,8,etc.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

The star rating a player gets when they are say 16 or 17 has absolutely nothing to do with where they get drafted in the NFL. It’s irrelevant.

 

[miket4god]

You’ve got 2 guys both ranked #1?

While 247 did a pretty good job identifying some top talent m, some folks will ask what about the guys ranked 3,4,5,6,8,etc.

Different classes. Nolan Smith 2019. Breese 2020 class.

 

[LouderVol]

You’ve got 2 guys both ranked #1?

While 247 did a pretty good job identifying some top talent m, some folks will ask what about the guys ranked 3,4,5,6,8,etc.

what mike said. different classes. I was kinda thinking about seeing how many classes were represented, but realized that would make the math way more complicated than I have time for and would require looking at multiple drafts. Which is why I am blurring the draft class into one theoretical high school class.

 

[Jackcrevol]

Alright so with the first round done, how do the draft picks translate into recruiting stars. because I know this argument is coming, and personally I hate when the numbers aren't provided, so I am providing it myself.

I am using 247. 247 typically nationally ranks about 1000s players a year.
the 32ish 5 stars make up 3.5%/1.7% of those players
the 270ish 4 stars make up 30%/15% of those players
the rest of the 600ish are 3 stars. 66.5%/33.3%
and then you have all of the guys who are not nationally ranked, typically there are at least as many of them as there are ranked guys. so that is why I am halving the percentages above.

#1. Bryce Young. #2 player nationally, 5*
#2. CJ Stroud. #42 player nationally, 4*
#3. WIll Anderson Jr. #17 player nationally, 5*
#4. Anthony Richardson. #204 player nationally, 4*
#5. Devon Witherspoon. completely unranked.
#6. Paris Johnson Jr. #9 player nationally, 5*
#7. Tyree Wilson. #424 player nationally. 3*
#8. Bijan Robinson. #15 player nationally. 5*
#9. Jalen Carter. #18 player nationally. 5*
#10. Darnell Wright. #10 player nationally. 5*
#11. Peter Skoronski. #113 player nationally. 4*
#12. Jahmyr Gibbs. #76 player nationally. 4*
#13. Lukas Van Ness. #1033 player nationally. 3*
#14. Broderick Jones. #11 player nationally 5*
#15. Will McDonald IV. # 787 player nationally, 3*
#16. Emmanuel Forbes. #186 player nationally. 4*
#17. Christian Gonzalez. #326 player nationally. 4*
#18. Jack Campbell. #662 player nationally. 3*
#19. Calijah Kancey. #837 player nationally. 3*
#20. Jaxon Smith-Njigba. #29 player nationally. 5*
#21. Quentin Johnston. #71 player nationally. 4*
#22. Zay Flowers. #1133 player nationally. 3*
#23. Jordan Addison. #275 player nationally. 4*
#24. Deonte Banks. #854 player nationally. 3*
#25. Dalton Kincaid. completely unranked.
#26. Mazi Smith. #106 player nationally. 4*
#27. Anton Harrison. #178 player nationally, 4*
#28. Myles Murphy. #7 player nationally. 5*
#29. Bryan Bresee. #1 player nationally. 5*
#30. Nolan Smith. #1 player nationally. 5*
#31. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, #2421 player nationally. 3*

stars matter

 

[Vols410]

 

[LouderVol]

The star rating a player gets when they are say 16 or 17 has absolutely nothing to do with where they get drafted in the NFL. It’s irrelevant.

not as a direct correlation (#1 doesn't have the best chance, or doesn't mean they should go #1), but there seems to be pretty good evidence that it does correspond pretty well to your chances. meaning that #1 has a pretty good chance to be taken in the first round.

if I really had nothing to do, I would do a multiple year review, and through in injuries, because there is no way to predict the impact of injuries by a ranking service.

 

[Wickman]

Every year these threads pop up in the draft, so I had low expectations. Good post. Appreciate the analytical side of it.

 

[Jackcrevol]

like one analyst said last night. nfl is looking for athletes.

iyam that's all hs rankings can grade. there is the correlation

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

The star rating a player gets when they are say 16 or 17 has absolutely nothing to do with where they get drafted in the NFL. It’s irrelevant.

Who are you and what have you done with BOT?!

 

[LouderVol]

the "bell curve" also slants pretty close to the 5 stars/higher rankings. putting them in order helps me have a better grasp. cant really post it showing the actual "curve" but here is how it looks grouped as pure numbers.

[1, 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, 17, 18, 29, 42, 71, 76, 106, 113, 178, 186, 204, 275, 326],[424], [662, 787, 837, 854], [1033, 1133], [ ], [ ], [ ], [2421, unranked, unranked]

in the first 326 (blue chip) ranked players you get: 21 players
in the next 326 players you have only: 1 player.
in the third group of 326 players you get: 4 players
in the fourth group of 326 players you get: 2 players
in the fifth group you get: 0 players
in the sixth group you get 0
in the seventh group you get 0
in the eighth plus you get 3.

the draft does tend to pick from the top of the rankings rather than from the bottom. Not saying the NFL drafts based on recruiting ranking, just saying that the recruiting rankings are apparently pretty good in generally grouping guys. and I would bet many of the guys with lower rankings just simply didn't get looked at and fell through the cracks, rather than the rankings saying they were that bad of a player.

 

[aaronvol]

The star rating a player gets when they are say 16 or 17 has absolutely nothing to do with where they get drafted in the NFL. It’s irrelevant.

false...numbers dont lie.

 

[bignewt]

I think development should also be very much taken into account. Where did those 5 stars go to school? Not only did they probably get ratings bumps due to their commitment they also went to schools that churn out picks, teams the NFL trusts. It's more than stars, it's a cycle.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I have this table that I'd made up some time ago and this seems like a good thread to drop it into. The first table is just a template that sorts players (recruits) based on public evaluations. It's a generalization. As the OP notes evaluations can't account for injuries. They also don't account very well for late bloomers, character or college coaching. I read from some coaches that some 5-stars peak in HS and they don't progress beyond that. There's a lot that goes into it that is just not measurable but still the hit rates are pretty consistent year to year. While not the end all and be all, I think it's hard to argue that there's no predictive value in the public evaluations. Some positions, according to some coaches interviewed, are more difficult to evaluate coming out of HS than others. I also created a table last night of the 1st round guys taken and matched it up with their composite rating out of HS. The contract values are from Spot Trac. TIFWIW. jmo. etc.

So my recruiting goal is to get as many top 100 recruits as possible. Last night 16 of the 31 names called were top 100 players (95 or above). We've been getting some of these guys lately. Of course everybody is fighting for them. The way things seemed to be shaping up we could have the most in this class than we've had in 15 years. jmo.

 

[LouderVol]

I have this table that I'd made up some time ago and this seems like a good thread to drop it into. The first table is just a template that sorts players (recruits) based on public evaluations. It's a generalization. As the OP notes evaluations can't account for injuries. They also don't account very well for late bloomers, character or college coaching. I read from some coaches that some 5-stars peak in HS and they don't progress beyond that. There's a lot that goes into it that is just not measurable but still the hit rates are pretty consistent year to year. While not the end all and be all, I think it's hard to argue that there's no predictive value in the public evaluations. Some positions, according to some coaches interviewed, are more difficult to evaluate coming out of HS than others. I also created a table last night of the 1st round guys taken and matched it up with their composite rating out of HS. The contract values are from Spot Trac. TIFWIW. jmo. etc.

So my recruiting goal is to get as many top 100 recruits as possible. Last night 16 of the 31 names called were top 100 players (95 or above). We've been getting some of these guys lately. Of course everybody is fighting for them. The way things seemed to be shaping up we could have the most in this class than we've had in 15 years. jmo.

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the stat that pushed me into believing the recruiting sites are more correct than they aren't is the hit rate you showed, and the percentage of the star class I showed. your numbers showed a general decline in hit rate the lower you go, that makes sense. My percentages showed a consistent factor between relative rating and chances of getting drafted.

 

[LittleVol]

With the exception of Darnell Wright- all the 5 stars either played at Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson. (Development is STILL the key)

32 spots for NFL first round. .
..usually 32 "5" stars each class.
Now make it 64 for NFL DRAFT purposes because 2019 and 2020 classes are both well represented.

11 of 64 eligible 5 stars drafted in the 1st round . They based their rankings off their NFL projected talent level. 11 of 64 is not a good yield. 11 of 32 is not a good yield.
It doesn't matter if it's higher than other star rankings from a percentage perspective.

This data AGAIN shows that you shouldn't automatically reserve 32 slots for guys to be ranked 5 star every recruiting cycle.
The reality seems to be that there are only about 10 per year....

 

[Vol8188]

The star rating a player gets when they are say 16 or 17 has absolutely nothing to do with where they get drafted in the NFL. It’s irrelevant.

I think you’re confusing one player with the aggregate. Does a star rating prevent any one player from making the nfl? Obviously no

If a team consistently brings in 5* players will they have more future nfl players than a team full of 3* players? Most likely.

 

[Vol8188]

With the exception of Darnell Wright- all the 5 stars either played at Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson. (Development is STILL the key)

32 spots for NFL first round. .
..usually 32 "5" stars each class.
Now make it 64 for NFL DRAFT purposes because 2019 and 2020 classes are both well represented.

11 of 64 eligible 5 stars drafted in the 1st round . They based their rankings off their NFL projected talent level. 11 of 64 is not a good yield. 11 of 32 is not a good yield.
It doesn't matter if it's higher than other star rankings from a percentage perspective.

This data AGAIN shows that you shouldn't automatically reserve 32 slots for guys to be ranked 5 star every recruiting cycle.
The reality seems to be that there are only about 10 per year....

lol the fact that you believe there’s 64 5*s in this draft class is hilarious. No wonder you don’t understand that stats clearly back up the power of recruiting rankings. You don’t even understand basic math.

Can you name the supposed 64 5*s in this class?

 

[LouderVol]

With the exception of Darnell Wright- all the 5 stars either played at Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson. (Development is STILL the key)

32 spots for NFL first round. .
..usually 32 "5" stars each class.
Now make it 64 for NFL DRAFT purposes because 2019 and 2020 classes are both well represented.

11 of 64 eligible 5 stars drafted in the 1st round . They based their rankings off their NFL projected talent level. 11 of 64 is not a good yield. 11 of 32 is not a good yield.
It doesn't matter if it's higher than other star rankings from a percentage perspective.

This data AGAIN shows that you shouldn't automatically reserve 32 slots for guys to be ranked 5 star every recruiting cycle.
The reality seems to be that there are only about 10 per year....

not all 64 5 stars from 19 AND 20 declared this draft. some 19s went last year, and some will go next year.

what would be a good yield? surely you aren't thinking 100% or anywhere close. too many injuries, or guys who just walk away.

Even the draft has busts at a pretty high clip, this says 53%
Most NFL Draft Picks Are Busts
this says something similar: 16% never make the team and 37% were useless.
NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

considering the draft has more information, and better coaches, and analysts than the recruiting rankings and looks at FAR fewer possibilities. 247 getting it 33% correct, vs the nfls 47% doesn't seem too bad.

and my 33% is purely based on Round 1. There are still six other rounds to go, and where a player goes in the draft doesn't inherently mean how good they will be. Its all predictive, so you have to look at the averagees. and the averages say if you are good enough to be ranked a 5* you are probably good enough to have the best shot getting drafted, and in this case drafted highly.

 

[TN-POSSUM]

 

[NighthawkVol]

Alright so with the first round done, how do the draft picks translate into recruiting stars. because I know this argument is coming, and personally I hate when the numbers aren't provided, so I am providing it myself.

I am using 247. 247 typically nationally ranks about 1000s players a year.
the 32ish 5 stars make up 3.5%/1.7% of those players
the 270ish 4 stars make up 30%/15% of those players
the rest of the 600ish are 3 stars. 66.5%/33.3%
and then you have all of the guys who are not nationally ranked, typically there are at least as many of them as there are ranked guys. so that is why I am halving the percentages above.

#1. Bryce Young. #2 player nationally, 5*
#2. CJ Stroud. #42 player nationally, 4*
#3. WIll Anderson Jr. #17 player nationally, 5*
#4. Anthony Richardson. #204 player nationally, 4*
#5. Devon Witherspoon. completely unranked.
#6. Paris Johnson Jr. #9 player nationally, 5*
#7. Tyree Wilson. #424 player nationally. 3*
#8. Bijan Robinson. #15 player nationally. 5*
#9. Jalen Carter. #18 player nationally. 5*
#10. Darnell Wright. #10 player nationally. 5*
#11. Peter Skoronski. #113 player nationally. 4*
#12. Jahmyr Gibbs. #76 player nationally. 4*
#13. Lukas Van Ness. #1033 player nationally. 3*
#14. Broderick Jones. #11 player nationally 5*
#15. Will McDonald IV. # 787 player nationally, 3*
#16. Emmanuel Forbes. #186 player nationally. 4*
#17. Christian Gonzalez. #326 player nationally. 4*
#18. Jack Campbell. #662 player nationally. 3*
#19. Calijah Kancey. #837 player nationally. 3*
#20. Jaxon Smith-Njigba. #29 player nationally. 5*
#21. Quentin Johnston. #71 player nationally. 4*
#22. Zay Flowers. #1133 player nationally. 3*
#23. Jordan Addison. #275 player nationally. 4*
#24. Deonte Banks. #854 player nationally. 3*
#25. Dalton Kincaid. completely unranked.
#26. Mazi Smith. #106 player nationally. 4*
#27. Anton Harrison. #178 player nationally, 4*
#28. Myles Murphy. #7 player nationally. 5*
#29. Bryan Bresee. #1 player nationally. 5*
#30. Nolan Smith. #1 player nationally. 5*
#31. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, #2421 player nationally. 3*

What were their rankings in April before their senior years?

 

[Vol8188]

What were their rankings in April before their senior years?

I’m not sure how to find that. Why do you believe that question matters?