Do the Recruiting Stars Matter, 2023 Draft

[LouderVol]

What were their rankings in April before their senior years?

uh, I think 247 has a ranking tracker, but I don't have the time or interest to look it up.

 

[norrislakevol]

If you want to win a national championship half of all your classes must be made up of 4 and 5 star players. The portal has certainly changed that some though, but as a general rule that is a requirement.

 

[Vol8188]

If you want to win a national championship half of all your classes must be made up of 4 and 5 star players. The portal has certainly changed that some though, but as a general rule that is a requirement.

Yeah, with the portal I do think that will shift. Because you can now let school x take the 3* and lower guys and develop them, then get the ones who ended surprising you

 

[LittleVol]

not all 64 5 stars from 19 AND 20 declared this draft. some 19s went last year, and some will go next year.

what would be a good yield? surely you aren't thinking 100% or anywhere close. too many injuries, or guys who just walk away.

Even the draft has busts at a pretty high clip, this says 53%
Most NFL Draft Picks Are Busts
this says something similar: 16% never make the team and 37% were useless.
NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

considering the draft has more information, and better coaches, and analysts than the recruiting rankings and looks at FAR fewer possibilities. 247 getting it 33% correct, vs the nfls 47% doesn't seem too bad.

and my 33% is purely based on Round 1. There are still six other rounds to go, and where a player goes in the draft doesn't inherently mean how good they will be. Its all predictive, so you have to look at the averagees. and the averages say if you are good enough to be ranked a 5* you are probably good enough to have the best shot getting drafted, and in this case drafted highly.

My argument specifically is that there are NOT 32 true 5 stars year in year out.

Probably never if I'm being honest.

And if you're talking about building a powerhouse in the SEC, then 33% success rate for elite kids is not good especially with how much money you spend on recruiting.
70% is the number you need at least.

It's silly to pattern recruiting rankings from the structure of the NFL draft. Because maybe there 10 Five star legit Olineman in the 2024 class. NFL draft 2027 comes around only 3 teams need plug and play lineman. The parameters of the draft are not nearly the same as the parameters of pure talent as is...

 

[Devo182]

Astounding gaps.

I'll also posit this as a Vol fan:

When's the last time a non-5* OL was drafted for us?

My recent memory is:

Darnell Wright
*Wanya Morris had he not transferred*
Cade Mays
Trey Smith

Iirc Juwuan (sp?) James may have been a 5* too.

Pretty good run for us and at a *developmental position* no less. Sorry if I scoff at the *little importance* of recruiting big time croots.

 

[Devo182]

My argument specifically is that there are NOT 32 true 5 stars year in year out.

Probably never if I'm being honest.

And if you're talking about building a powerhouse in the SEC, then 33% success rate for elite kids is not good especially with how much money you spend on recruiting.
70% is the number you need at least.

It's silly to pattern recruiting rankings from the structure of the NFL draft. Because maybe there 10 Five star legit Olineman in the 2024 class. NFL draft 2027 comes around only 3 teams need plug and play lineman. The parameters of the draft are not nearly the same as the parameters of pure talent as is...

Don't overthink it. It is a measuring stick. There's also not exactly 32 "first rounders" quality guys each class, some more or less. Both are slightly relative, of course.

 

[Devo182]

Yeah, with the portal I do think that will shift. Because you can now let school x take the 3* and lower guys and develop them, then get the ones who ended surprising you

I think we have one of the best chances of breaking the unbeaten "blue chip ratio" champion streak.

Even the creator said it would be a team with elite qb play, 40%+ BCR, and a bit of luck. We were possibly a HH injury and quicksand field in Columbia away from it.

 

[livefaith]

One 5 second look at this list and ask yourself the question "How many 2* players are there? How many 3* players compared to 5* and even 4* players. Once you realize the magnanimous difference in the size of each pool, then the answer is obvious. If you cannot see the sheer difference in odds with those questions, then you are thinking wrong about it.

 

[Vol8188]

One 5 second look at this list and ask yourself the question "How many 2* players are there? How many 3* players compared to 5* and even 4* players. Once you realize the magnanimous difference in the size of each pool, then the answer is obvious. If you cannot see the sheer difference in odds with those questions, then you are thinking wrong about it.

Someone who can’t count to 64 shouldn’t be expected to understand statistics

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Who are you and what have you done with BOT?!

I have always said that. Star ratings only matter coming out of HS.

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

if you considered the draft as one single high school class you can begin to break down the chances of getting drafted in the first round based generally on stars.

11 5stars
10 4stars
8 3stars
2 unranked

so just looking at the pure numbers, your best bet to be picked is to be a 5*. more 5* were chosen than anyone else.
now if we consider those stars as a percentage of how many typical players your chances of being drafted in any individual first round based on your star rating would be:

5 star: 11/32, 34% chance of being drafted in the first round
4 star: 10/270, 3.7% chance of being drafted in the first round.
3 star: 8/700, 1.1% chance of being drafted in the first round (or .3% if you consider the ranking down to the #2421)
Unranked: 2/???? there was a general trend of each star being worth a factor of 10, so I am going to assume you have about a .03% chance of getting drafted if you are unranked.

On the other hand as many 3* and below have been drafted as 4 stars in your analysis. Counting all the 3 stars that never even visit a P5 campus is just a major logic flaw regardless of it's statistical accuracy. Further you need to double all your denominators in your analysis since all star levels are available to the draft after 3 years.... won't quibble over all the Covid and other 5 year guys skewing the math just a bit.... So every 3 star and below drafted over a two year period beat out over 500 4 and 5 stars in the pool. Aren't statistics great.

 

[woodpusher]

if you considered the draft as one single high school class you can begin to break down the chances of getting drafted in the first round based generally on stars.
Unranked: 2/???? there was a general trend of each star being worth a factor of 10, so I am going to assume you have about a .03% chance of getting drafted if you are unranked.

2/0.0003 = 6666.

I figure 130 FBS schools * 21 players per year = 2730
2/1730 = 0.0011, so it could be as high as 0.1%. I figure deduct a bit to account for the chance an FCS, Division II, or Division III player is taken.

You might get above 5666 if you counted every senior on every FBS, FCS, Division II, and Division III school.

 

[Tennessee Golfer]

Astounding gaps.

I'll also posit this as a Vol fan:

When's the last time a non-5* OL was drafted for us?

My recent memory is:

Darnell Wright
*Wanya Morris had he not transferred*
Cade Mays
Trey Smith

Iirc Juwuan (sp?) James may have been a 5* too.

Pretty good run for us and at a *developmental position* no less. Sorry if I scoff at the *little importance* of recruiting big time croots.

Fulton?

 

[LittleVol]

Don't overthink it. It is a measuring stick. There's also not exactly 32 "first rounders" quality guys each class, some more or less. Both are slightly relative, of course.

That's what i.just said...

 

[Vol8188]

And if you're talking about building a powerhouse in the SEC, then 33% success rate for elite kids is not good especially with how much money you spend on recruiting.
70% is the number you need at least.

It's silly to pattern recruiting rankings from the structure of the NFL draft. Because maybe there 10 Five star legit Olineman in the .

Lol you just randomly made up this 70% number. If you take 25 a year and 33% work out to be 1sr round picks that means your team would have 33 future first round picks even if you redshirted 0 players.

Yes, if 33% of your players end up being elite, that’s very good. That’s early 2000s Miami Hurricanes level greatest of all time kinda roster

 

[jakez4ut]

Byron Young, Cedric Tillman, Hendon hooker were not blue chip prospects. Jalin Hyatt wasn't even getting looked at by his home state schools....

Sure higher rated guys give you a hedged bet on productive talent.

But development sells too.

 

[Devo182]

Byron Young, Cedric Tillman, Hendon hooker were not blue chip prospects. Jalin Hyatt wasn't even getting looked at by his home state schools....

Sure higher rated guys give you a hedged bet on productive talent.

But development sells too.

Tbf to Hendon, he was a blue chip.

 

[Devo182]

Fulton?

Sounds about right. 2013? 2012? Man we had some damn good OL around that time. Glad we're back to those...and now we have puke.

 

[jakez4ut]

Tbf to Hendon, he was a blue chip.

 

[LouderVol]

On the other hand as many 3* and below have been drafted as 4 stars in your analysis. Counting all the 3 stars that never even visit a P5 campus is just a major logic flaw regardless of it's statistical accuracy. Further you need to double all your denominators in your analysis since all star levels are available to the draft after 3 years.... won't quibble over all the Covid and other 5 year guys skewing the math just a bit.... So every 3 star and below drafted over a two year period beat out over 500 4 and 5 stars in the pool. Aren't statistics great.

again, the point isn't about individuals. Yeah some unranked kids are good, but their odds of making the 1st round are LOW.

if the rankings were just completely wrong I wouldn't expect to see a trend based on star ranking again it pretty much went down by a factor of ten. 33, 3.3, 0.3, .03. with the number of data points (31) of course it wasn't going to work out cleanly, and the biggest difference were there were more 5 stars than the trend would suggest. that consistency speaks to the recruiting services being more right than they are wrong. doesn't mean they don't have misses, just means their results are consistent enough to be considered valid (IMO of course)

 

[LouderVol]

I am going to try and do rounds 2 & 3 now.

A couple expectations I have.
1. we will see fewer 5 stars, because a good chunk of them already went in round 1.
2. I expect the amount of 4 stars to rise considerably. and more than just replacing the 5* already gone. to me this makes sense because the 4* are good, but aren't "supposed" to be the superstars the 5* are that would qualify them for a 1st round draft.
3. I am expecting the 2 & 3 stars to remain relatively the same, but down a little. As the 4 stars will now be performing "as they should" and so you will still have lower rated outliers who outperform their rankings, but the 4* will also have the outperformers as well as the ones meeting the standard to take more slots than they did in Round 1.

we will see how my hypothesis checks out from this draft.

 

[LouderVol]

Round 2

32. Joey Porter Jr. #345 4 Star
33. Will Levis #652 3 Star
34. Sam LaPorta #1170 3 star
35. Michael Mayer #32 5 star
36. Steve Avila #1065 3 star
37. Derick Hall #149 4 star
38. Matthew Bergeron #936 3star
39. Jonathan Mingo #216 4 star
40. Isaiah Foskey #212 4 star
41. BJ Ojulari #84 4star
42. Luke Musgrave #763 3 star
43. Joe Tippman #316 4 star
44. Julius Brents #439 3 star
45. Brian Branch #61 4 star
46. Keion White #3141 2 star
47. Jartavius Martin #1495 3 star
48. Cody Mauch unranked
49. Keeanu Benton #1221 3 star
50. Jayden Reed #1783 3star
51. Cam Smith #151 4 star
52. Zach Charbonnet #46 4 star
53. Gervon Dexter Sr. #12 5 star
54. Tuli Tuipulotu #386 3 star
55. Rashee Rice #817 3 star
56. Tyrique Stevenson #37 4 star
57. John Michael Schmitz #1083 3 star
58. Luke Schoonmaker #795 3 star
59. O'Cyrus Torrence #1617 3 star
60. DJ Turner II #455 3star
61. Breton Strange #344 4 star
62. Juice Scruggs #233 4 star
63. Marvin Mims Jr. #168 4star

 

[SweetasSoda]

Round 2

32. Joey Porter Jr. #345 4 Star
33. Will Levis #652 3 Star
34. Sam LaPorta #1170 3 star
35. Michael Mayer #32 5 star
36. Steve Avila #1065 3 star
37. Derick Hall #149 4 star
38. Matthew Bergeron #936 3star
39. Jonathan Mingo #216 4 star
40. Isaiah Foskey #212 4 star
41. BJ Ojulari #84 4star
42. Luke Musgrave #763 3 star
43. Joe Tippman #316 4 star
44. Julius Brents #439 3 star
45. Brian Branch #61 4 star
46. Keion White #3141 2 star
47. Jartavius Martin #1495 3 star
48. Cody Mauch unranked
49. Keeanu Benton #1221 3 star
50. Jayden Reed #1783 3star
51. Cam Smith #151 4 star
52. Zach Charbonnet #46 4 star
53. Gervon Dexter Sr. #12 5 star
54. Tuli Tuipulotu #386 3 star
55. Rashee Rice #817 3 star
56. Tyrique Stevenson #37 4 star
57. John Michael Schmitz #1083 3 star
58. Luke Schoonmaker #795 3 star
59. O'Cyrus Torrence #1617 3 star
60. DJ Turner II #455 3star
61. Breton Strange #344 4 star
62. Juice Scruggs #233 4 star
63. Marvin Mims Jr. #168 4star

That’s a lot of 3 stars. Especially with 10 three and two stars taken in the first.

 

[LouderVol]

2 5 stars
13 4 stars
15 3 stars
2 2 star/unranked

So the number of 4 stars did go up, but not nearly as much as I thought. 3 stars dominated the 2nd round with almost half of the total draft picks in this round.

using the same numbers from Round 1.
2/32 5 stars = 6%
13/300 4 stars =4%
15/700 3 stars = 2%
2/2109 (3141 - 1032) = 0.0009%

so your best bet of going highly in the draft is still to earn a higher rating. but now the numbers aren't nearly as dramatic as before. this trend says to me that the recruiting rankings are still more right than they aren't, but they aren't nearly as good at predicting this level of talent as they are Round 1 talent.

 

[LouderVol]

That’s a lot of 3 stars. Especially with 10 three and two stars taken in the first.

indeed I was surprised. I was going to do a cumulative after I did Round 3. Not willing to call anything yet because an outlier doesn't inherently change anything. The overall trend still favors recruiting rankings being better than a pure guess, they are just closer to a pure guess.

-I would expect pure guesses to either have very similar numbers for each star category, or no perceptible trend that matches their ranking system.