I see your point, but I think it’s worth considering that some players might choose to stay in college if they have a strong NIL deal, like Dylan Sampson. We’re both assuming about the compensation levels since we don’t have exact figures, but it’s important to remember that not all NFL contracts are guaranteed.
For example, this year’s average 4th round picks earn about $825k per year on a four-year deal, but much of that can evaporate if a player gets waived or ends up on the practice squad.
If someone is projected as a 4th round pick, staying in college for another year could actually lead to better financial opportunities, especially with the rising prominence of NIL deals. College football players often have strong connections with fans, and it’s easier to land local promotion deals as a standout player than as a relatively unknown practice squad member in the NFL.
Making an NFL roster is incredibly tough, and many talented college players struggle to even stick around for a second year. Yes, if you’re a guaranteed first-round pick, you should go. But for those mid-tier Power 5 players with solid NIL opportunities, staying could be more beneficial.
so it’s not as guaranteed as you imply.