Don't look now but McCain got a bigger bounce

#26
#26
615 Vol said:
Does anyone prefer the electoral vote over popular vote? Seems that in a time were we have the technology to count votes quickly they could go with the popular vote. I know what it was meant to do by balancing the power but it seems that we also have access to so much info and there are so many people that move from state to state that the popular vote would truly make every vote count. I know that I can go wait for an hour to vote for Obama and McCain will still win Tennessee. I will still go but I would feel better knowing I made a difference. Same for Republicans in New England or California. What do others think?
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I prefer the electoral vote.
 
#28
#28
I don't like how the electorial creates a strategy were states like Ohio get all the attention. It's nice that we don't have to see commercial after commercial for the election here in Tennessee but it almost feels like we're not part of the process too. I don't know what it would be, and maybe the electorial is the best system but I wish we had something different.
 
#29
#29
615 Vol said:
I don't like how the electorial creates a strategy were states like Ohio get all the attention. It's nice that we don't have to see commercial after commercial for the election here in Tennessee but it almost feels like we're not part of the process too. I don't know what it would be, and maybe the electorial is the best system but I wish we had something different.
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In some ways, the primary system is the opportunity for a state like Tennessee to exert influence - but the Iowa/New Hampshire crap messes with that.

I think without the electoral college, more areas would be ignored. This time, states like Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia and a few others are all still in play. This will be the most nationally contested race in history I would imagine.
 
#30
#30
The Bounce continues - RCP average of polls now shows McCain at +3.2. His last RCP lead was in April (while the primaries were still going on for the Dems).

Who knows if it will last but this is quite a turn of events trend-wise.
 
#31
#31
BigPapaVol said:
no. we have a loser. that alone should be enough to tell yo to leave the polling garbage behind.

OBTW, there is no state as red as the NE idiots are blue.
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Are you calling me a loser? I just thought it was interesting that Tennessee was statistically higher for McCain than states like Texas and Alaska.
 
#32
#32
MontereyVol said:
Are you calling me a loser? I just thought it was interesting that Tennessee was statistically higher for McCain than states like Texas and Alaska.
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I called the idea that the polling was accurate a loser. There is no way that TN is remotely as red as some of the others.
 
#38
#38
Well, the electoral slide continues for Obama - at one point he was projected with over 300 EVs. He also had a commanding lead in states that were in his favor to the tune of about 250-150 relative to McCain. The latest RCP data shows him still winning if the tossups are given 273 but including toss-ups as toss-ups, he has a 1 EV lead over McCain.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map


Worse for him is the erosion in states like Michigan where his advatange has slipped considerably.

Still way too early to draw conclusions but the trend for the last several months has been towards McCain and that trend has accelerated.
 
#39
#39
I still think Obama will win by 2-4 points, but if the election were held today, he would surely lose the popular and maybe even the electoral college. McCain has made significant inroads in Michigan. That remains his best bet. McCain should get out of PA and stay focused on OH and make Obama play defense in MI.

In the end, it's coming down to OH, MI, CO and VA. It has been those four states for a long time. Other states to watch are NH, NV and FL. I think it's still Obama's to lose. All he has to do is win Kerry states + NM, IA, and CO.
 
#40
#40
Colorado will be interesting to see. The lead in Michigan is now under 2 for Obama according to RCP.
 
#42
#42
Given it's "red" history and being a western, outdoors state I would have thought the Palin effect would be larger but early state polling isn't showing it. If it doesn't show in a week or so, I don't think it ever will.
 
#43
#43
volinbham said:
Given it's "red" history and being a western, outdoors state I would have thought the Palin effect would be larger but early state polling isn't showing it. If it doesn't show in a week or so, I don't think it ever will.
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Its urban centers are also overrun with west coast loonies! Norcal in the house :rock:
 
#46
#46
volinbham said:
Given it's "red" history and being a western, outdoors state I would have thought the Palin effect would be larger but early state polling isn't showing it. If it doesn't show in a week or so, I don't think it ever will.
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There's also a huge fundy base in Colorado so that should help McCain as well, but the decision by Dems to have their convention in Denver is looking like a smart strategy. There were 80,000 people in that stadium and many of theme were Coloradans. Obama now has all their information, cell phones, etc.. which could result in a huge army of ground volunteers on election day. Before Palin, there was no way McCain could compete with that type of organization.
 
#47
#47
notverycrucial said:
There's also a huge fundy base in Colorado so that should help McCain as well, but the decision by Dems to have their convention in Denver is looking like a smart strategy. There were 80,000 people in that stadium and many of theme were Coloradans. Obama now has all their information, cell phones, etc.. which could result in a huge army of ground volunteers on election day. Before Palin, there was no way McCain could compete with that type of organization.
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Yes about the convention and the way they required some "buy in" to get a seat.
 
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