Draftnics: Success rate for 1st round QBs

#76
#76
95 Vol Alum said:
Interesting given Bryce Young. Love isn’t the guy. I hope the Packers stick with him.
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@n_huffhines since this thread got bumped, I may have to mea culpa on Love. Almost literally after this post last season, he and the Packers went on a run. I hope I'm right as a Bears fan but could be eating crow if he sustains the performance he had in Nov & Dec last season.
 
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#77
#77
95 Vol Alum said:
@n_huffhines since this thread got bumped, I may have to mea culpa on Love. Almost literally after this post last season, he and the Packers went on a run. I hope I'm right as a Bears fan but could be eating crow if he sustains the performance he had in Nov & Dec last season.
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It happens
 
#78
#78
n_huffhines said:
Updated:
Mahomes

Burrow, Allen, Stafford, Stroud

Herbert, Lamar, Hurts, Rodgers

Goff, Purdy, Cousins, Dak, Love

Tua, Minshew, Geno, Lawrence, Kyler, Baker
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Yikes, I don’t like this list at all. Stafford over Lamar?????

Mahomes

Allen/Burrow/Jackson

Herbert/Stroud

Goff/Hurts/Prescott/Stafford

Lawrence/Love/Purdy/Tua

Cousins/Mayfield/Murray/Rodgers/Smith
 
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#79
#79
zjcvols said:
Yikes, I don’t like this list at all. Stafford over Lamar?????

Mahomes

Allen/Burrow/Jackson

Stroud/Herbert

Goff/Hurts/Prescott/Stafford

Lawrence/Love/Purdy/Tua

Cousins/Mayfield/Murray/Rodgers/Smith
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Stafford can win a SB. Stafford took one of the worst teams to the playoffs last year and almost upset the Lions....with his best weapon out 5 games and then 80% all year and he was throwing to a 5th round WR, or whatever he was.

Jackson is the better regular season QB but Stafford can get you to the playoffs and actually win. Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs. His only 2 playoff wins (Houston and Tennessee) were games where his D held the other team under 2 TD's. He completes 57% of his playoff passes. 6 TD's, 6 INT's. He takes over 4 sacks a game. He's only passed for over 200 yards twice in those 6 games. He does have nearly 90 ypg rushing and 3 TD's, but he also has 6 fumbles.

I can't put him on the 2nd tier. There is so much good with Jackson, but the bad is what keeps him off. Stafford doesn't have as much good, and the only bad is really that he gets injured.
 
#80
#80
n_huffhines said:
Stafford can win a SB. Stafford took one of the worst teams to the playoffs last year and almost upset the Lions....with his best weapon out 5 games and then 80% all year and he was throwing to a 5th round WR, or whatever he was.

Jackson is the better regular season QB but Stafford can get you to the playoffs and actually win. Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs. His only 2 playoff wins (Houston and Tennessee) were games where his D held the other team under 2 TD's. He completes 57% of his playoff passes. 6 TD's, 6 INT's. He takes over 4 sacks a game. He's only passed for over 200 yards twice in those 6 games. He does have nearly 90 ypg rushing and 3 TD's, but he also has 6 fumbles.

I can't put him on the 2nd tier. There is so much good with Jackson, but the bad is what keeps him off. Stafford doesn't have as much good, and the only bad is really that he gets injured.
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Stafford has played 15 years in the NFL and has one season where he’s won a playoff game. He was good in 2023 but wasn’t MVP caliber.

Lamar has won 2 decisive MVP awards and is a Zay Flowers being a moron away from getting a chance to be in the Super Bowl. He’s twice lead his team to best record in football, something Staff has never come to doing. And he’s done that without a pro bowl WR (and remember Lamar missed Mark Andrew’s, his best target, for most of the season). And that doesn’t include Lamar hasn’t had any sort of offensive genius like Sean McVay for his career.

I love Stafford, I’m the Matthew Stafford defender but there isn’t one single GM in football that would take Stafford over Lamar for 2024. Not one.
 
#81
#81
zjcvols said:
Stafford has played 15 years in the NFL and has one season where he’s won a playoff game. He was good in 2023 but wasn’t MVP caliber.

Lamar has won 2 decisive MVP awards and is a Zay Flowers being a moron away from getting a chance to be in the Super Bowl. He’s twice lead his team to best record in football, something Staff has never come to doing. And he’s done that without a pro bowl WR (and remember Lamar missed Mark Andrew’s, his best target, for most of the season). And that doesn’t include Lamar hasn’t had any sort of offensive genius like Sean McVay for his career.

I love Stafford, I’m the Matthew Stafford defender but there isn’t one single GM in football that would take Stafford over Lamar for 2024. Not one.
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Stafford just hasn't been on good teams. Stafford literally had one above average defense ever in Detroit.

These are the Ravens' defensive rankings with Lamar. If you're a QB on that tier, you gotta turn that into more than 2 playoff wins.

1713379299339.png
 
#82
#82
BTW, here are the 2023 QB tiers Mike Sando constructs by polling front office people. Not sure he's released the newest one or if it's behind a paywall.

Jackson and Stafford are on the same tier. I think Stafford raised his profile this year carrying a bad team. Jackson raised his profile with a 2nd MVP, but it's hard to shake the AFCCG where he had 37 pass attempts and 10 points at home.

1713380263099.png
 
#83
#83
n_huffhines said:
BTW, here are the 2023 QB tiers Mike Sando constructs by polling front office people. Not sure he's released the newest one or if it's behind a paywall.

Jackson and Stafford are on the same tier. I think Stafford raised his profile this year carrying a bad team. Jackson raised his profile with a 2nd MVP, but it's hard to shake the AFCCG where he had 37 pass attempts and 10 points at home.

View attachment 635113
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That was before the 2023 season when Lamar had injury concerns. And Jackson was still 2 spots ahead of Stafford
 
#84
#84
zjcvols said:
That was before the 2023 season when Lamar had injury concerns. And Jackson was still 2 spots ahead of Stafford
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I would say he is still an injury concern (and so is Stafford).

You said every GM would take Lamar for next year, and I just don't think that's true. Every single person polled picked Lamar and they're only two spots apart? Even if it is true, they aren't that far off. Some people find Lamar's 2nd MVP to be convincing. Others find another playoff disappointment to be convincing. At some point I gotta see success with that D. But I don't think you're wrong for taking Lamar. I just like my chances of winning a title with Stafford more.
 
#86
#86
Can't believe it's already time to update this. Aside from Mahomes, you have to all the way back to 2009 to find a 1st rd draft pick who would go on to win a SB. That is nuts.

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#88
#88
n_huffhines said:
Can't believe it's already time to update this. Aside from Mahomes, you have to all the way back to 2009 to find a 1st rd draft pick who would go on to win a SB. That is nuts.

View attachment 671526
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That RG3 doesn't even mention the 2013 and 2014 picks they traded. What an absolute disaster that was for Washington
 
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#90
#90
The Pats turned down a trade with the Giants for the Drake Maye pick...

The Giants are going to be terrible and they were offering their #6, another 1st, two 2nds, and a 3rd, all of which will be early round picks.

What in the actual hell
 
#91
#91
n_huffhines said:
The Pats turned down a trade with the Giants for the Drake Maye pick...

The Giants are going to be terrible and they were offering their #6, another 1st, two 2nds, and a 3rd, all of which will be early round picks.

What in the actual hell
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Robert Kraft chasing Tom Brady 2.0 and not actually building a football team
 
#92
#92
zjcvols said:
Robert Kraft chasing Tom Brady 2.0 and not actually building a football team
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I think Maye has a lot of potential but he is raw and their roster is not set up for success. They could have snagged the LT, Nabers, or Odunze (or traded back again with Vikings or Broncos) and set the table for Shadeur Sanders or somebody next year to come in and succeed.

They could've had 3 extra starters going into the next offseason, come out of the next draft with our guy Pearce, a rookie QB (whose contract timing will line up better with a longer run), and they have a ton of cap space rolling over.
 
#93
#93
zjcvols said:
Stafford has played 15 years in the NFL and has one season where he’s won a playoff game. He was good in 2023 but wasn’t MVP caliber.

Lamar has won 2 decisive MVP awards and is a Zay Flowers being a moron away from getting a chance to be in the Super Bowl. He’s twice lead his team to best record in football, something Staff has never come to doing. And he’s done that without a pro bowl WR (and remember Lamar missed Mark Andrew’s, his best target, for most of the season). And that doesn’t include Lamar hasn’t had any sort of offensive genius like Sean McVay for his career.

I love Stafford, I’m the Matthew Stafford defender but there isn’t one single GM in football that would take Stafford over Lamar for 2024. Not one.
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👀
 
#95
#95
Stafford has had the better career. Lamar is the better overall QB right now.

But if I have 1 play to win the game and I am not inside the 10 yard line, give me Stafford all day over Lamar. Lamar is a mediocre passing QB, particularly on any passes traveling over 20 yards in the air.
 
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#96
#96
Carp said:
Stafford has had the better career. Lamar is the better overall QB right now.

But if I have 1 play to win the game and I am not inside the 10 yard line, give me Stafford all day over Lamar. Lamar is a mediocre passing QB, particularly on any passes traveling over 20 yards in the air.
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100%

To win 1 game with the guys he has reps with, give me Stafford. I'm only taking Lamar Jackson if it's for the years, not this year.

Ravens had to convert two long 3rd downs to score on their opening drive off scripted plays. Then they scored on their 3rd to last drive because his TE made 3 tacklers miss on a 49 yard TD (credit, he did extend the play). The rest of the game, they had 6 points.

Lamar has proven he can win MVP. Stafford has proven he can win big games.
 
#98
#98
Carp said:
Stafford has had the better career. Lamar is the better overall QB right now.

But if I have 1 play to win the game and I am not inside the 10 yard line, give me Stafford all day over Lamar. Lamar is a mediocre passing QB, particularly on any passes traveling over 20 yards in the air.
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Lamar has done more with less, imo. But it's a double edged sword. Lamar has been forced to be the primary source of offense for the Ravens, but when he can't get it done himself he hasn't had the reliable weapons to bail him out (at least up until last year).

He has good weapons now however, so games like last night can't happen if he is to take the next step. He missed a wide open WR in the end zone with the game on the line. And while he did give his team a chance to tie or go for the win on the next play, he tends to have too many of those missed opportunities.
 
#99
#99
Carp said:
Lamar has done more with less, imo. But it's a double edged sword. Lamar has been forced to be the primary source of offense for the Ravens, but when he can't get it done himself he hasn't had the reliable weapons to bail him out (at least up until last year).

He has good weapons now however, so games like last night can't happen if he is to take the next step. He missed a wide open WR in the end zone with the game on the line. And while he did give his team a chance to tie or go for the win on the next play, he tends to have too many of those missed opportunities.
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Ravens were 3rd in the league last year in offensive spending and Rams were 27th. 14th and 26th respectively in 2022.

Ravens scored 27 points combined in their 2 playoff losses those years.
 
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