East Tennessee Weather II

#3,855
#3,855
Some of the models are suggesting a worst case scenario where ian stalls over Tampa Bay now. This will not be a "quick" event. It will be a prolonged, and very tiring event. If you are going to try to do battle with ten feet of ocean water and 110/120 mph winds for an extended time, you had better get your rest. You will need all your strength.
 
#3,857
#3,857
IluvdoubleD's said:
Means it will be some kind of yet to be determined mesocyclone. What often happens with these, is they rippen very quickly when they get to the tip of cuba. That terrain can either be a cane killer, or cane water slide, coming off the back of the mountain, and off that sand spit into VERY favorable waters. If it avoids the mountains that area is like a cane breading pool. Yet to be determined.
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Actually iT means it is predicted to be a Major Hurricane at that point in the track.

@mad4vols

I had just looked it up on the NOAA government website before reading the posts here because I wanted to know what it meant myself.
 
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#3,860
#3,860
He's cooking with gas now. He wants to make that bend clean so bad. He's sees it, he may not be able to get there, but either way... He's coming. 8030CD4A-DDBA-454E-BABC-85837B2C4FA2.jpeg
 
#3,863
#3,863
because nobody could tell you what kind of storm it was going to manifest into at that time. In fact, there are many things that can still affect this storm. It can still run into something unforeseen yet.The models are giving a worst case tho, and people who watch storms know what they are looking at. you can't just spout off a worst case that early. You have to watch the storm to know what you are looking at.
 
#3,864
#3,864
You are dealing with fluid dynamics. It's not concrete. It's dynamic that way. Nobody can tell you what is going to happen three days from now, they can tell what think is going to happen. It is an ever changing event that is still growing.
 
#3,866
#3,866
IluvdoubleD's said:
You are dealing with fluid dynamics. It's not concrete. It's dynamic that way. Nobody can tell you what is going to happen three days from now, they can tell what think is going to happen. It is an ever changing event that is still growing.
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How
Did you get the “M” in the chart meaning mesocyclone?
Everyone knows storms and weather forecasts are fluid. The hurricane track and strength are based on probabilities.
 
#3,870
#3,870
He's just sitting and cooking in that bay. puled back and forth. Cuba is giving him s lot of pause, snd they are taking a PUNISHING beating for it. He Still hasn't made his move! 59347496-CB16-41EF-A263-8F966342BFC4.jpeg
 
#3,872
#3,872
It's difficult to tell, but Ian may have just made land fall on cuba. Landfall is called when the back of the eye wall moves on shore. Right now there is a lot wiggling around going on. If he gets pulled back into Cuba it will do a number on him. A2FC7CC3-A0B8-43AF-AF50-A9018A986880.jpeg
 
#3,873
#3,873
Now, here comes the jet stream. What everyone wants to know is, will ian get caught up in it? or will he stay on its southern boundary? Yet to be determined. It's a dynamic situation.EA0E5C4E-FD6B-4C92-9B6A-9351BCBE8EFD.jpeg
 
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