East Tennessee Weather II

#26
#26
I'm seeing a warm shot then a deep shot of cold by the end of November. You can see the cold mass bulding its way south. Much faster than years past.


Could see some flurries before Halloween as well.
 
#29
#29
RT or VK: I know it's a crap shoot this far out but what are the models showing the temps will be for the week starting November 6th?
 
#30
#30
Coug said:
RT or VK: I know it's a crap shoot this far out but what are the models showing the temps will be for the week starting November 6th?
Click to expand...

Highs in the mid to low 60's with lows in the high 30's low 40's
 
#31
#31
Not a forecasr
&
Just for speculation


I don't see another warmup in November I see a major cold shot coming our way by the 2nd week of the month. It will change but I'll monitor it.

So far, the temperatures are on average or just below. Years past we have been much above. Again, pay attention to that.


This might be a year for the Snow lover's
 
#32
#32
WxSouth posted this on Facebook. Kinda long but a good read.





Well, from a macro picture from this vantange point--this Winter still looks very interesting to me. Last 2 were sort of boring, yet historic, in terms of warmth. What I see now over the last several months is a drastic drop in the warm anomalies globally (especially aloft, which dictates where ridges and troughs are). I know the average person could care less about that particular notation, but it means everything in Meteorology.
We're coming off the warmest period ever recorded--and its dropping fast. So this will be interesting to see just how far the other shoe falls. It reminds me looking back at some of the great Winters looking at height fields in the late 1800's and 1960's and some of the 1980's. Of course, not just using whether or not this is a Nino or Nina, but combining the culmination of events thus far. That's why I'm leaning strongly toward an extremely memorable Winter in some of the MidAtlantic and MidSouth to Southeast region.
More of the region is leaving, or has left, the big back to back drought years, and extreme levels of warmth (highs and lows) and are getting more weather events, more fronts, and big precipitation events more widespread, so there's no doubt we're in a different overall environment than the previous 2 + years. I won't be surprised to see Winter storms begin within only 6 to 8 weeks. We've had blocking show up , and continues to do so, after a long absence in Greenland and Eastern Canada...and a return of the big tall Western US ridges, which begins soon, similar to the Winters of 3 and 4 years ago.
Combine all that with the usual extreme variability and enormous wavelength depths that accompany a Nina Winter sometimes, and you get something that's not really the normal "Nina" type of Winter, and if I were betting--this is where we'll head. Toward extreme variability, but with the cold shots being severe, and the timing of storm systems such that they are severe as well, and repetitive, and basically over the same regions. I'm not inclined yet "exactly" where that would be, but I certainly like the chances around Northern Alabama, Northern Georgia, western Carolinas and both Virginias on over-achieving in this particular Winter. Its always a guess, until we're in the season to get real precedents though. There's plenty of ingredients like Siberian snow cover, QBO , AMO states, and more that have atleast some correlation, but using those alone won't always be correct, case in point, last two years.
We've had quite a turn around here, with many areas getting pieces of several hurricanes, big fronts, tornadic events and some areas that were dry, turned around with a very wet Summer. All in all, it probably won't be boring. And as I've said, probably not the usual Nina type of Winter. You never can really know for sure though, as I mentioned patterns can come quickly with little notice, but usually we like to head toward the opposite of what we were in, and we're leaving anomalous warmth and anomalous drought for now (I think), for most of us.
 
#33
#33
Well, There will be a major warmup.

Highs back into the high 70's. Then another deep airmass will move in that looks to stay.


Stay warm today.
 
#34
#34
Normal to a little above normal temps for the first half of November. Then, A cold shot that looks to stay. Not the cold we've been seeing either.
 
#35
#35
I was going to wait until Tuesday when David gives his winter weather outlook, but I'll go ahead and post Todd Howell's and Matt Hinkin's forecasts.

WBIR - Todd is thinking that due to the weak La Nina building in the equatorial pacific, we'll see colder temperatures than last year, but above average temps overall. He also thinks we will likely see average to slightly above average snowfall in the valley (Average for Knoxville is 6.5 inches).

Todd's snowfall amounts:

5-9" for the Valley
9-14" for the Plateau (Average is around 12")
10-20 inches for the Lower elevation mountains (Gatlinburg for example).

WATE: Matt also points to the La Nina as the primary weather factor for this winter. He also thinks that temperatures will be above average overall, though stresses that there will still be short cold snaps. He is leaning towards below average snowfall and does mention that an ice storm can't be ruled out.

Matt's snowfall amounts:

3-6" for the Valley
10-12" for the Plateau
60-80" for the higher elevations in the Mountains.
 
#41
#41
Unfortunately, I missed David's winter weather outlook due to having something important I had to do. I will post the highlights when the replay is posted online.

As for Thanksgiving, it's looking dry at this time.
 
#42
#42
Vol knight said:
Unfortunately, I missed David's winter weather outlook due to having something important I had to do. I will post the highlights when the replay is posted online.

As for Thanksgiving, it's looking dry at this time.
Click to expand...

looks like the system shifted North but i do remember quite a few shifting north and soith befotesettliing. Interesting to be speakjnh of it tbis erly
 
#43
#43
It's finally up on the wvlt website, so here's David's Winter Weather Outlook:

He thinks that due to the weak La Nina, we could see a wetter than average winter and a cold start to winter. The La Nina will also cause a "tug of war" winter where we could see both cold arctic blasts and mild temps.

Snowfall amounts:

4-8" in the Valley
11-15" in the Plateau
45-80" in the highest elevations of the mountains
 
#47
#47
~Severe Weather Bulletin~

There's a Marginal risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms for areas along and west of Knox County tonight. For those who are wondering, yes, the storms will be affecting the game as the line will be moving in during the game.

Primary risks:

-Damaging winds up to 60mph.
-localized flooding is possible in the usual flood prone areas

Secondary risks:

-An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
 
#48
#48
they are getting some rough weather in Middle Tennessee.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/TornadoWeather/status/932022970033360896[/twitter]
 
#49
#49
CagleMtnVol said:
they are getting some rough weather in Middle Tennessee.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/TornadoWeather/status/932022970033360896[/twitter]
Click to expand...

Yep. Thankfully, the instability is much weaker in East TN. I don't anticipate a watch being issued past the plateau.
 
#50
#50
HMM...


Brace yourselves. Winter is coming.

That's a helluva cold shot.

Snow possibilities!
Stay tuned!

VK step up!
 

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