East Tennessee Weather

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#10,976
#10,976
rocktopper16 said:
😂😂
I told you Summer wasn't over yet. I was just up in Pennslyvania & it was near the low 90's.


Cold winter, Yea I'm thinking right now it's going to happen . Snowy, I'm leaning towards it. Still a long way to go.
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I was in Destin the week the heat came back. I heard the UMass game was just lovely to attend.
:)
 
#10,978
#10,978
We do need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Nate. Depending on the track and how strong it is when it makes landfall, it could still be a tropical storm when it moves into TN.
 
#10,980
#10,980
Exact track is uncertain.

Strong thunderstorms.
High winds
Flooding

Is likely with widespread power outrages possible. Stay tuned.
 
#10,981
#10,981
~Tropical Weather Update~

As of now, here are my thoughts on Nate's impacts on East TN:

1. We'll likely see tropical storm force gusts up to 40 mph in the lower elevations (up to 60 mph in the mountains). Sustained winds won't reach tropical storm force. A TS watch is possible, but I don't expect widespread power outages. It will likely be sporadic. Unfortunately, some of the fall leaves on the trees in the mountains will likely be stripped off.

2. As for rainfall, we could see 1-4 inches by Tuesday. The flooding threat will be localized due to the ground being dry.

3. Severe threat is very low, but not zero. A brief weak tornado can't be ruled out.

As with all tropical systems this far out, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the track and how strong the system will be once it reaches here. Rainfall amounts and wind impacts could go up or down if the track changes.
 
#10,986
#10,986
If you haven't move veichles where branches and lawn furniture can't hit them.

Saying that, be a friendly neighbor and move chairs and take down umbrellas.
 
#10,988
#10,988
Before the center of the storm reaches us this evening, here's my official forecast for tropical storm Nate.

Rainfall amounts and flood threat: 1-3 inches with isolated 4+ amounts possible, especially south of I-40. Foothills could experience a "rain shadow" or downsloping effect where there won't be as much rain due to the NE winds. The flooding threat will be localized due to the very dry ground across the area.

Wind: As I said in my last post, the valley will see gusts up to 40 mph (maybe 45+ mph on ridges), while the mountains above 3000 feet could see gusts up to 60 mph. I'm not anticipating widespread power outages, but isolated power outages are possible (the mountains will have a greater chance of seeing power outages). The stronger winds will arrive once the center of Nate enters TN.

Severe threat: I can't say that the tornado threat is absolute zero, but with little to no surface heating due to the cloud cover and rain, the threat is very low. I'm not really concerned about this.
 
#10,989
#10,989
Update:

Nate has now weakened to a tropical depression. I'm still thinking 1-3 inches of rain for the area, with some areas in the foothills seeing less than an inch. My thoughts on wind impacts remain the same as my last post.
 
#10,991
#10,991
So.... once this tropical storm moves along, are we ever actually going to have anything reminiscent of fall? It's getting into mid-October and the forecast is still calling for highs in the low-mid 80's for at least another week. Personally I'm sick of the hot weather.
 
#10,992
#10,992
bleedorange0037 said:
So.... once this tropical storm moves along, are we ever actually going to have anything reminiscent of fall? It's getting into mid-October and the forecast is still calling for highs in the low-mid 80's for at least another week. Personally I'm sick of the hot weather.
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Fall always starts slow here. For the better part of a decade we've had mild to warm temperatures all the way into Halloween. It's not uncommon for us to see lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's Halloween night. By that point though the highs in the 80's are typically gone.
 
#10,993
#10,993
Coug said:
Fall always starts slow here. For the better part of a decade we've had mild to warm temperatures all the way into Halloween. It's not uncommon for us to see lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's Halloween night. By that point though the highs in the 80's are typically gone.
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I still think it's been worse the past couple years. I remember a lot of October afternoons where the weather was pretty nice for tailgating before UT games. Certainly not last year. This year has probably been slightly better, but not a whole lot.
 
#10,998
#10,998
bleedorange0037 said:
I still think it's been worse the past couple years. I remember a lot of October afternoons where the weather was pretty nice for tailgating before UT games. Certainly not last year. This year has probably been slightly better, but not a whole lot.
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It really seems that way.

I remember when I moved here in 1994 that you needed sweatshirts back in October.
 
#11,000
#11,000
I did a little digging on Weather Underground during my lunch break. Are they usually pretty decent?

I was curious about how warm it was when I was a kid versus now in the month of October.

In 2016, the highest high was 88°, the average high was 80°, and the lowest high was 62°. The lows were 63° for the highest low, 53° was the average low and 39° was the lowest low.

That was super warm compared to the prior year. I imagine the lack of rain caused it to be warmer.

Here is 2015 to compare:

Highest high: 82°
Average high: 71°
Lowest high: 58°

Highest low: 63°
Average low: 51°
Lowest low: 35°

2014 was a bit warmer at its peak, but overall about the same as 2015.

To compare to my first fall in Knoxville in 1994:

Highest high: 81°
Average high: 70°
Lowest high: 57°

Highest low: 62°
Average low: 50°
Lowest low: 33°

1995 was about the same.


Overall it looks like the average has crept up a tick, but the hottest days in October have been hotter now than they were in the past.

Let me know if I made any glaring errors. I’m not a weather expert by any means, I was just curious to gather some data.
 
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