Economic forecasting model: Obama will lose in near-landslide

#26
#26
PKT_VOL said:
Eh, I hate agreeing with LG but I think he's right. Romney had zero support minus the "anti-Obama" vote. Nobody is excited for him and he is just not doing it for independents. I think independents are much more prone to either staying home, writing in, or voting third party; all of which is a win for Obama.

Bottom line, Obama would win fairly easily if the vote was held today. That is a huge win for the Obama campaign given the disastrous record he has to run on. Barring something crazy happening, I don't see the poll numbers changing in any significant way between now and election day. Unlike a non-incumbent election or a non-modest election, virtually everyone who is going to vote in November already has made up their mind. Bad news for Romney.
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What are you basing this off of? Your own gut feeling?

Polling indicates otherwise: Gallup: Democratic voter enthusiasm is down - Tim Mak - POLITICO.com
 
#27
#27
golfballs said:
What are you basing this off of? Your own gut feeling?

Polling indicates otherwise: Gallup: Democratic voter enthusiasm is down - Tim Mak - POLITICO.com
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Pretty much every poll I have seen in the past month and yes it part of my gut feeling (then again I've been studying this stuff since high school as well).

To address your link specficly, enthusiasm polls are hard to read. It is hard to predict how that will translate to voter turnout on election day. There many voters, on both sides, who aren't enthusiastic with their own party candidate but will still go to the polls anyways. Also, you have to take the electoral college into account as well. National polls are useless. Pretty sad, but that's the reality of the situation. Only a handful states are even relivent to the conversation.
 
#28
#28
PKT_VOL said:
Pretty much every poll I have seen in the past month and yes it part of my gut feeling (then again I've been studying this stuff since high school as well).

To address your link specficly, enthusiasm polls are hard to read. It is hard to predict how that will translate to voter turnout on election day. There many voters, on both sides, who aren't enthusiastic with their own party candidate but will still go to the polls anyways. Also, you have to take the electoral college into account as well. National polls are useless. Pretty sad, but that's the reality of the situation. Only a handful states are even relivent to the conversation.
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And like I said, the state polls are flawed.

There is ZERO doubt, that voter turnout will be a bigger advantage to Romney than to Obama in this cycle.
 
#30
#30
golfballs said:
And like I said, the state polls are flawed.

There is ZERO doubt, that voter turnout will be a bigger advantage to Romney than to Obama in this cycle.
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I would not say that. Those who are enthusiastic to vote against Obama (that sums up the Romney base) are historically the demographic who always turnout to the polls regardless of the year or who is running. What made '08 special for Obama was that he energized demographics that were historically terrible at voter turnout.

Basically, the anti-Obama crowd already votes, they are just very loud and pissed off this time around.

The voter turnout only matters in swing states. On a national level, it is irrelevant.
 
#31
#31
PKT_VOL said:
I would not say that. Those who are enthusiastic to vote against Obama (that sums up the Romney base) are historically the demographic who always turnout to the polls regardless of the year or who is running. What made '08 special for Obama was that he energized demographics that were historically terrible at voter turnout.

Basically, the anti-Obama crowd already votes, they are just very loud and pissed off this time around.

The voter turnout only matters in swing states. On a national level, it is irrelevant.
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As David Byrne would say, stop making sense.
 
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#33
#33
PKT_VOL said:
I would not say that. Those who are enthusiastic to vote against Obama (that sums up the Romney base) are historically the demographic who always turnout to the polls regardless of the year or who is running. What made '08 special for Obama was that he energized demographics that were historically terrible at voter turnout.

Basically, the anti-Obama crowd already votes, they are just very loud and pissed off this time around.

The voter turnout only matters in swing states. On a national level, it is irrelevant.
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Ok, so how does that refute what I said? Also of note is how low Dem voter enthusiasm is.
 
#34
#34
golfballs said:
Ok, so how does that refute what I said? Also of note is how low Dem voter enthusiasm is.
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1) I tried explaining it to you. Re-read my post. If it helps, I'll add that the Black and Hispanic voter turnout will be well above average in favor of Obama. That should be obvious. I would say my generation will also have above average turnout. All three demographics dont have to necessarily be '08 levels to be above average or provide a big advantage to Obama.

2) If I remember right, (I only read the article a couple minutes ago but my memory isn't want it once was), the question posed was somehing along the lines of: are you more excited this cycle than last? I think that should answer your question as to why the numbers are what they are in that poll. Absolutely dumb and irrelevant poll if that was indeed the question.
 
#35
#35
#36
#36
Incorrect: 1996, 2000

Correct: 2004, 2008

How would a coin flip model fare over the last four elections? Or an octopus?

630paul.jpg
 
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#37
#37
PKT_VOL said:
1) I tried explaining it to you. Re-read my post. If it helps, I'll add that the Black and Hispanic voter turnout will be well above average in favor of Obama. That should be obvious. I would say my generation will also have above average turnout. All three demographics dont have to necessarily be '08 levels to be above average or provide a big advantage to Obama.

2) If I remember right, (I only read the article a couple minutes ago but my memory isn't want it once was), the question posed was somehing along the lines of: are you more excited this cycle than last? I think that should answer your question as to why the numbers are what they are in that poll. Absolutely dumb and irrelevant poll if that was indeed the question.
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You didn't explain anything other than your gut feeling tells you something and you've studied it a long time. That's great. I worked on Capitol Hill for several years and on campaigns for several years after that.

The point is, the polls in swing states are flawed because they base their samples on the voter turnout of the last election. You would have to be a fool to thing the turnout is going to be the same. There is NO way the turnout will be nearly as favorable for Obama in this cycle than in the last.
 
#38
#38
golfballs said:
You didn't explain anything other than your gut feeling tells you something and you've studied it a long time. That's great. I worked on Capitol Hill for several years and on campaigns for several years after that.

The point is, the polls in swing states are flawed because they base their samples on the voter turnout of the last election. You would have to be a fool to thing the turnout is going to be the same. There is NO way the turnout will be nearly as favorable for Obama in this cycle than in the last.
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PKT_VOL said:
If it helps, I'll add that the Black and Hispanic voter turnout will be well above average in favor of Obama. That should be obvious. I would say my generation will also have above average turnout. All three demographics dont have to necessarily be '08 levels to be above average or provide a big advantage to Obama.
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If you think the Black, Hispanic, and the young vote is going to be normal compared to past years your wrong. They might not match '08 levels, but the will be above average which will favor Obama. Again, none of this matters on a national level. Just in the specific swing states.
 
#40
#40
tvols75 said:
Look at the poll demographic you are referring to. MSNBC didn't mention that I bet.
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Yeah. But just about every poll in the last month has Obama up in those states. I don't think anyone believes he has margin greater than 2% in those states except for maybe PA.
 
#42
#42
PKT_VOL said:
If you think the Black, Hispanic, and the young vote is going to be normal compared to past years your wrong. They might not match '08 levels, but the will be above average which will favor Obama. Again, none of this matters on a national level. Just in the specific swing states.
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Yes, I'm talking specifically about 2008. Thats what these state polls are based on. That is my entire point.
 
#43
#43
PKT_VOL said:
Yeah. But just about every poll in the last month has Obama up in those states. I don't think anyone believes he has margin greater than 2% in those states except for maybe PA.
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Easily within the margin of error
 
#44
#44
golfballs said:
Yes, I'm talking specifically about 2008. Thats what these state polls are based on. That is my entire point.
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I get your point, I think your missing mine.

golfballs said:
Easily within the margin of error
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I would normally be on board with this. However, every poll in the last month has virtually been the same. You would expect it to flip-flop a little if it was truly in the margin of error depending on the week or poll.
 
#45
#45
Polls or not, I've already conceded that Obama will be elected.

Unless Romney's got some ace in the hole campaign that blindsides Obama, it ain't gonna happen.

The allure of free money, it's someone else's fault, and you're being taken advantage of is all he needs.
 
#46
#46
PKT_VOL said:
I get your point, I think your missing mine.



I would normally be on board with this. However, every poll in the last month has virtually been the same. You would expect it to flip-flop a little if it was truly in the margin of error depending on the week or poll.
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Your point has nothing to do with the argument I'm making
 
#48
#48
Thrasher865 said:
Ah, the old "if you don't agree with me you're stupid" approach. Only serves to make yourself look dumber.
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huh? Sorry but I do view anyone that can look at the first term of Obama and say "give me 4 more of that" as lacking intelligence
 
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