Economic Upheaval Coming With Artificial Intelligence

#27
#27
Disruptive tech has always resulted in economic benefit on the net. Some people get lost in the shuffle. Everybody else benefits. Tale as old as time. Maybe it will be different with AI. Probably not.
 
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#28
#28
VolStrom said:
I can't wait to see what kind of code an AI machine can write. Will it be efficient or will it be spaghetti?
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It's already successfully doing it. Still needs a human hand. One coder can do the work of 10 men with it.

 
#30
#30
WBO said:
My company's head of IT comes in to my office last week and tells me that we are not seriously planning for the impact of AI to our company and to the economy at large. The number of jobs that will be eliminated over the next 25-50 years is astronomical. AI is already writing code that he says is as good as the professionals doing it now. He went down the list of occupations that will practically disappear, everything from school teachers to truck drivers to banks. With the advent of robotics a lot of tasks, especially in manufacturing will go away. Imagine no pilot in the cockpit of your Delta flight to Maui.

It really shows its stuff in research. Our business involves the analysis of business entities for sale or purchase. Our best people are the ones who get into the numbers and tell us the total truth about a company, not just what the owners claim. We do written reports and even determine value. The IT guy tells me AI can already do most of that work in a small fraction of the time. So we are having him do an AI generated analysis to compare with one we are doing normally. This could be life changing for a lot of people in our company.

As we were standing there, I had the IT guy ask his phone for a clause in a contract to resolve a specific kind of post-transaction adjustment based on earnings. It gave us one in 5 seconds. I couldn't have typed the request into my standard search program in the time it took to answer.

So what is everyone going to do for income or do we just figure the machines will wipe us out when they become sentient?
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While I do not doubt any of what you posted, I will say that the idea of a passenger plane with no pilots will be a no go for many. I do expect it to be the ultimate goal, however. I have ten years left, so I don’t think I’ll see it in my career with the sloth like nature of the FAA and the fight pilot unions and other entities will put up. As far as what people will do for income with entire industries wiped clean of actual employees, I’ll parrot what one of our posters said a while back in that it will likely be the catalyst for a big push toward a universal basic income that has been proposed. I see as many or more (insidious) problems with AI as I do benefits.
 
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#32
#32
WBO said:
My company's head of IT comes in to my office last week and tells me that we are not seriously planning for the impact of AI to our company and to the economy at large. The number of jobs that will be eliminated over the next 25-50 years is astronomical. AI is already writing code that he says is as good as the professionals doing it now. He went down the list of occupations that will practically disappear, everything from school teachers to truck drivers to banks. With the advent of robotics a lot of tasks, especially in manufacturing will go away. Imagine no pilot in the cockpit of your Delta flight to Maui.

It really shows its stuff in research. Our business involves the analysis of business entities for sale or purchase. Our best people are the ones who get into the numbers and tell us the total truth about a company, not just what the owners claim. We do written reports and even determine value. The IT guy tells me AI can already do most of that work in a small fraction of the time. So we are having him do an AI generated analysis to compare with one we are doing normally. This could be life changing for a lot of people in our company.

As we were standing there, I had the IT guy ask his phone for a clause in a contract to resolve a specific kind of post-transaction adjustment based on earnings. It gave us one in 5 seconds. I couldn't have typed the request into my standard search program in the time it took to answer.

So what is everyone going to do for income or do we just figure the machines will wipe us out when they become sentient?
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Electric vehicles will cost jobs as well…. Fewer moving parts and etc. will eliminate all kinds of jobs
 
#33
#33
WBO said:
My company's head of IT comes in to my office last week and tells me that we are not seriously planning for the impact of AI to our company and to the economy at large. The number of jobs that will be eliminated over the next 25-50 years is astronomical. AI is already writing code that he says is as good as the professionals doing it now. He went down the list of occupations that will practically disappear, everything from school teachers to truck drivers to banks. With the advent of robotics a lot of tasks, especially in manufacturing will go away. Imagine no pilot in the cockpit of your Delta flight to Maui.

It really shows its stuff in research. Our business involves the analysis of business entities for sale or purchase. Our best people are the ones who get into the numbers and tell us the total truth about a company, not just what the owners claim. We do written reports and even determine value. The IT guy tells me AI can already do most of that work in a small fraction of the time. So we are having him do an AI generated analysis to compare with one we are doing normally. This could be life changing for a lot of people in our company.

As we were standing there, I had the IT guy ask his phone for a clause in a contract to resolve a specific kind of post-transaction adjustment based on earnings. It gave us one in 5 seconds. I couldn't have typed the request into my standard search program in the time it took to answer.

So what is everyone going to do for income or do we just figure the machines will wipe us out when they become sentient?
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We’re dead meat
 
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#35
#35
WBO said:
My company's head of IT comes in to my office last week and tells me that we are not seriously planning for the impact of AI to our company and to the economy at large. The number of jobs that will be eliminated over the next 25-50 years is astronomical. AI is already writing code that he says is as good as the professionals doing it now. He went down the list of occupations that will practically disappear, everything from school teachers to truck drivers to banks. With the advent of robotics a lot of tasks, especially in manufacturing will go away. Imagine no pilot in the cockpit of your Delta flight to Maui.

It really shows its stuff in research. Our business involves the analysis of business entities for sale or purchase. Our best people are the ones who get into the numbers and tell us the total truth about a company, not just what the owners claim. We do written reports and even determine value. The IT guy tells me AI can already do most of that work in a small fraction of the time. So we are having him do an AI generated analysis to compare with one we are doing normally. This could be life changing for a lot of people in our company.

As we were standing there, I had the IT guy ask his phone for a clause in a contract to resolve a specific kind of post-transaction adjustment based on earnings. It gave us one in 5 seconds. I couldn't have typed the request into my standard search program in the time it took to answer.

So what is everyone going to do for income or do we just figure the machines will wipe us out when they become sentient?
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This will only escalate the do more with less model that has been going on for a few years now. Good time to invest in NVDA, AMD, AI and any other company involved in the revolution.
 
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#36
#36
Majors said:
This will only escalate the do more with less model that has been going on for a few years now. Good time to invest in NVDA, AMD, AI and any other company involved in the revolution.
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NVDA shares sell for 40x revenue and 200x earnings. Owning them should be with the understanding that they could easily fall considerably in value.
 
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#38
#38
Majors said:
Isn’t that the game with any stock?
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At a 200x P/E it has an entirely different risk profile. Going long with most any DJIA component would be a different “game”.

NVDA is incorporating a rich earnings estimate for the next decade or two into that valuation in an unpredictable, volatile industry.

If anybody wants to own it, that’s fine. I do. But putting the kid’s college fund into that equity might not be a sound decision.
 
#41
#41
EasternVol said:
Seems it could be programmed for it.
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I think you will see a rise in what is believed to be persecution, but in reality will be the unbiased application of the letter of the law. So inherently with all of the allowances that have been made in our system to be inclusive we will have a bunch that will suddenly have to fit the standard mold. thankfully with AI it will be easier to fit into that mold, but getting people to work within the actual confines of the law, instead of what is currently acceptable practice, will result in some bumps.
 
#42
#42
you will see it in the creative fields as well. 5 years ago there were already programs that could brute-force the design part of architecture. Literally generate thousands of iterations once you enter a number of parameters. Then as you select your favorites it refines the options. you could do as many times as you wanted, and give it additional commands/input as you went if you had specific items to add.
 
#43
#43
imo the two "fixes" are integration or microsizing AI programs.

Integration would be something like Elon Musks Neural link. find ways to get AI into to people to make people better so there is no reason to replace the meat with the machine. the benefit to corporations and individuals is there. Also there would be no reason an individual couldn't personally benefit from integration as well. Neural link has proposed a bunch of fixes for the brain. the corporation still needs the people because that's where the processing power lies, and it still offers a number of other benefits. The human interaction side of it, having multiple input sources, individual outputs instead a single MAJOR AI that ran everything for the company. this would essentially ban "open" AI like ChatGPT that multiple people can use simultaneously.

The other option of micro sizing AI would be to essentially declare AI a monopoly and break it down in size to how much any one AI program can do, and how much any one company can control. what people often overlook is there is no inherent limit on how much an AI can do. you could have one AI that ran everything in the nation, if you gave it enough processing power. so plural AI would be pointless. We are currently artificially micro sizing AI to task specific items, but we are seeing that utilization being applied to multiple fields with Chatgpt. we would have to continue to artificially structure AI to be task specific so that at least there is some form of competition beyond how much RAM is feasible to give an AI. and again make sure that no one controls more AI than they should.

the problem is enforcement, there is pretty much no way to stop corporations from making an AI that is big enough to replace the humans it has. That company would become "Too big to fail" real fast.

a sub option would be for a crowd-owned AI system, so that generated revenue was shared.

of course all of this relies on the naivety that AI will always work with/for us. imo the best chance to avoid that would be integration where AI becomes part of us to avoid creating divisions where a true AI can pick and choose between AI/Human.
 
#46
#46
WBO said:
Now the thing that makes me really suspicious is that when you ask the program if it is sentient it gives a surprisingly aggressive denial. They have programmed it to specifically do that. They know where the public starts getting scared.

Also, he told me the more you use it, the more it adapts to your thought processes, giving you answers tailored to the best way for you to comprehend what it's telling you. That is just flat out scary.

I had already started converting to a hyper-smart home where our security, entertainment, communication and lighting are all on verbal command. I am beginning to rethink some of that, especially the decision to use Alexa.
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Rethink......good decision
 
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#48
#48
If we actually do construct AI-controlled drones, I would hope we would add some kind of override inaccessible to the AI.
 
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#50
#50
UT_Dutchman said:
That would be key to any AI platform. An uninterruptable kill switch. At some point I fear the AI will become intelligent enough to create a work around.
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To me the question boils down to one very simple point. If machines can do everything, then why would they need us? What's the basis for human existence, what's the basis for human skill or knowledge, for compensation? Do we get warehoused until some bright boy robot decides there's no reason?

Think about a war fought by drones, and the question is "why"? There's no personal stake, no personal risk, it's basic insanity. Who loses? The first team who runs out of toys? That's been a thought that I haven't been able to answer since the first articles published about AI drones on the battlefield and in the air. If there's no personal risk, then what's to prevent perpetual war? Why not just press the nuke button now and get it over with? If you think about AI as being logical and deciding there's no reason for war, then what if the particular brand of AI evolves into one that believes in conquest/domination?

Imagine a tennis match played by robots ... why ... de dunk de dunk ad infinitum? Has man really gotten so smart that he's become terminally stupid and planning his own obsolescence and demise? This has been covered in detail in science fiction, and yet here we are. Who needs musicians ... they are flawed, just get HAL, and sure as hell don't forget the applause.

This isn't a question of can it be done; this is a question of why in the hell would we do it. If mankind's crowning achievement is making himself obsolete, then why did we work so hard to "evolve", to become more "learned", more "competent"?
 
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