Florida Curse - A myth and here are the stats to prove it

[volbound1700]

Here is a breakdown of the records of Florida and Tennessee every year since 2000:

Year	Result	Florida Record	TN Record	Florida Recruiting ranking	Tennessee Recruiting Ranking
2000	Loss 27-23	10-3 (10)	8-4 (NR)	No data	No data
2001	Win 34-32	10-2 (3)	11-2 (4)	No data	No data
2002	Loss 30-13	8-5 (NR)	8-5 (NR)	20	2
2003	Win 24-10	8-5 (24)	10-3 (15)	2	18
2004	Win 30-28	7-5 (NR)	10-3 (13)	7	11
2005	Loss 16-7	9-3 (12)	5-6 (NR)	15	4
2006	Loss 21-20	13-1 (1)	9-4 (25)	2	23
2007	Loss 59-20	9-4 (13)	10-4 (12)	1	3
2008	Loss 30-6	13-1 (1)	5-7 (NR)	3	35
2009	Loss 23-13	13-1 (3)	7-6 (NR)	11	10
2010	Loss 31-17	8-5 (NR)	6-7 (NR)	2	9
2011	Loss 33-23	7-6 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	12	13
2012	Loss 37-20	11-2 (9)	5-7 (NR)	3	17
2013	Loss 31-17	4-8 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	4	21
2014	Loss 10-9	7-5 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	8	5
2015	Loss 28-27	10-4 (25)	9-4 (22)	23	5
2016	Win 38-28	9-4 (14)	9-4 (22)	14	15
2017	Loss 26-20	4-7 (NR)	4-8 (NR)	9	15
2018	Loss 47-21	10-3 (7)	5-7 (NR)	17	20
2019	Loss 34-3	11-2 (6)	8-5 (NR)	8	13
2020	Loss 19-31	8-4 (13)	3-7 (NR)	7	8
2021	Loss 38-14	6-7 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	10	35
2022	Win 38-33	6-7 (NR)	11-2 (6)	18	12
2023	Loss 29-16	5-7 (NR)	9-4 (17)	13	12

Effectively, if you look at the statistics, Florida has recruited better in nearly every time period and has had better records overall than Tennessee in most of the years.

A few surprises.

2015 Florida finished 10-4 but only #25 in AP poll. I had to look that one up. Florida ended the year on 3-game skit so they were pretty solid until last 3 games. Granted their competition up ticked for those last 3 games.

A lot of the games have been closer than I expected. The close games almost always favored Florida. I remember 2000, 2014, and 2015 as being really excruciating close losses.

2001 Tennessee is the ONLY underdog Tennessee team to beat Florida.

Tennessee is, or should have been the underdog in over 90% of the matchups. Frankly, Tennessee has NOT been as good a program as Florida. It isn't a "curse", it is the better team winning.

Heupel hasn't done that well against Florida so far. The 2021 loss was one of Heupel's worse defeats (granted it is year 1 which is typically a crap shoot).

The only years were Tennessee was clearly better and lost to Florida were 2002 and 2023. You can maybe argue that 2013, 2014, and 2015 Tennessee should have won as well. Butch Jones era saw the most excruciating losses to Florida.

Jim McElwain was statistically better as a coach than I expected. I remember him not being a great coach but he had about as good a performance in recruiting and record as Dan Mullin and was better than any Tennessee coach minus Fulmer and maybe Heupel.

 

[volbound1700]

If you go off average rankings throughout this time period, Florida is at 9.5 and Tennessee is 13.9.

I used Rivals.com since it was the easiest to track but I think you would get a similar message with other web pages. Tennessee, IMO, has suffered more attrition than Florida on many instances as well (Kiffin leaving ate classes, Butch Jones and Pruitt leaving saw a lot of transfers as well).

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

Completely agree. They've always had the edge in talent at the critical positions, most years anyway.

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

I'd argue that 2023 was mostly due to injuries along our O-line and Pili being out on D. They had a running back who now starts for UGA who made our defense pay.

 

[volbound1700]

Completely agree. They've always had the edge in talent at the critical positions, most years anyway.

I still stat this, 2002 and 2023 are the only years that Tennessee had a clearly better team and lost to Florida. 2005 is interesting because we had a top 5 team that went 5-6, so Florida wasn't the only game we underachieved in (heck we lost to Vandy and South Carolina that year).

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

I still stat this, 2002 and 2023 are the only years that Tennessee had a clearly better team and lost to Florida. 2005 is interesting because we had a top 5 team that went 5-6, so Florida wasn't the only game we underachieved in (heck we lost to Vandy and South Carolina that year).

Yeah '05 was brutal. Wasn't that the year that Fulmer hired a new OC?

 

[volbound1700]

Yeah '05 was brutal. Wasn't that the year that Fulmer hired a new OC?

2008 was the year. 2005 was the offense. Our defense kept us in every game but we couldn't score points.

In the late Fulmer years, Tennessee teams had a way of quitting (like Florida has at times recently) once we lost 2-3 games and failed to meet expectations. This happened in 2002 and 2005. It was more than just a bad team, team would give up at times.

 

[CAVPUT]

Lotta numbers but for me, the only one that matters is 2 wins in the last 19 years.

 

[volbound1700]

Lotta numbers but for me, the only one that matters is 2 wins in the last 19 years.

We have a worse record against Alabama. Is their an Alabama curse?

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Completely agree. They've always had the edge in talent at the critical positions, most years anyway.

They have typically had the coaching advantage. If Napier gets the best of Heupel this upcoming Saturday, then I am going to go puke on my neighbor's backyard.

 

[DaddyChad]

We have a worse record against Alabama. Is their an Alabama curse?

Yes. His name was Saban

 

[TN1111]

Florida has more talent than Kentucky and has lost 3 in a row to them. Yet, Kentucky can't beat TN who inexplicably loses to Florida.

While I wouldn't think being in a team and program's head could be real, there's no other way to explain it.

 

[volbound1700]

Florida has more talent than Kentucky and has lost 3 in a row to them. Yet, Kentucky can't beat TN who inexplicably loses to Florida.

While I wouldn't think being in a team and program's head could be real, there's no other way to explain it.

My theory has been that it is more to do with "when" we have played Florida than the team itself. They are often the first real test on our schedule and we often have had teams not up to par so it was the first time they were exposed.

The brutal truth is that Tennessee has just been bad throughout most of this span. We have had similar losing streaks to Alabama, Georgia, and frankly against the top 25 or any good teams on our schedule.

Heck, we haven't won @ Arkansas in almost 20 years. Is there an Arkansas curse?

It is just bad football by Tennessee as a program. Florida is starting to play some bad football now. We will see how it goes.

We have been lucky/over performed against Kentucky IMO. Kentucky has had some very good teams get beat by Tennessee. I think it is because Kentucky played a softer schedule and had fat wins but get a talent upgrade against Tennessee. Kentucky has had a worse record against Florida until recently. If it wasn't for 2023 game, we would be sitting in a similar position against Florida as Kentucky. 2023 Florida is a bad loss and seems to show a "curse" but it is very similar to 2022 South Carolina or 2024 Arkansas. Heupel has a road game issue. I think that is more the concern than a Florida curse.

 

[overseasorange2]

Here is a breakdown of the records of Florida and Tennessee every year since 2000:

Year	Result	Florida Record	TN Record	Florida Recruiting ranking	Tennessee Recruiting Ranking
2000	Loss 27-23	10-3 (10)	8-4 (NR)	No data	No data
2001	Win 34-32	10-2 (3)	11-2 (4)	No data	No data
2002	Loss 30-13	8-5 (NR)	8-5 (NR)	20	2
2003	Win 24-10	8-5 (24)	10-3 (15)	2	18
2004	Win 30-28	7-5 (NR)	10-3 (13)	7	11
2005	Loss 16-7	9-3 (12)	5-6 (NR)	15	4
2006	Loss 21-20	13-1 (1)	9-4 (25)	2	23
2007	Loss 59-20	9-4 (13)	10-4 (12)	1	3
2008	Loss 30-6	13-1 (1)	5-7 (NR)	3	35
2009	Loss 23-13	13-1 (3)	7-6 (NR)	11	10
2010	Loss 31-17	8-5 (NR)	6-7 (NR)	2	9
2011	Loss 33-23	7-6 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	12	13
2012	Loss 37-20	11-2 (9)	5-7 (NR)	3	17
2013	Loss 31-17	4-8 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	4	21
2014	Loss 10-9	7-5 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	8	5
2015	Loss 28-27	10-4 (25)	9-4 (22)	23	5
2016	Win 38-28	9-4 (14)	9-4 (22)	14	15
2017	Loss 26-20	4-7 (NR)	4-8 (NR)	9	15
2018	Loss 47-21	10-3 (7)	5-7 (NR)	17	20
2019	Loss 34-3	11-2 (6)	8-5 (NR)	8	13
2020	Loss 19-31	8-4 (13)	3-7 (NR)	7	8
2021	Loss 38-14	6-7 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	10	35
2022	Win 38-33	6-7 (NR)	11-2 (6)	18	12
2023	Loss 29-16	5-7 (NR)	9-4 (17)	13	12

Effectively, if you look at the statistics, Florida has recruited better in nearly every time period and has had better records overall than Tennessee in most of the years.

A few surprises.

2015 Florida finished 10-4 but only #25 in AP poll. I had to look that one up. Florida ended the year on 3-game skit so they were pretty solid until last 3 games. Granted their competition up ticked for those last 3 games.

A lot of the games have been closer than I expected. The close games almost always favored Florida. I remember 2000, 2014, and 2015 as being really excruciating close losses.

2001 Tennessee is the ONLY underdog Tennessee team to beat Florida.

Tennessee is, or should have been the underdog in over 90% of the matchups. Frankly, Tennessee has NOT been as good a program as Florida. It isn't a "curse", it is the better team winning.

Heupel hasn't done that well against Florida so far. The 2021 loss was one of Heupel's worse defeats (granted it is year 1 which is typically a crap shoot).

The only years were Tennessee was clearly better and lost to Florida were 2002 and 2023. You can maybe argue that 2013, 2014, and 2015 Tennessee should have won as well. Butch Jones era saw the most excruciating losses to Florida.

Jim McElwain was statistically better as a coach than I expected. I remember him not being a great coach but he had about as good a performance in recruiting and record as Dan Mullin and was better than any Tennessee coach minus Fulmer and maybe Heupel.

This probably looks similar to UT's record against UK.

 

[volbound1700]

This probably looks similar to UT's record against UK.

The big difference is that UT's recruiting is probably way better than UK. UK has Miss State (instead of Alabama for TN and LSU for Florida) as the permanent rotating opponent and generally has an easier OOC schedule than UF or TN. UK tends to have padded records so I can envision several years were UK has a better record than both UT and UF but lost to both.

 

[YankeeVol]

We have a worse record against Alabama. Is their an Alabama curse?

Yea, it was Nick Saban

 

[volbound1700]

Yea, it was Nick Saban

No one did well against Nick Saban. Heck, Kirby Smart has as many wins against Saban as Tennessee. There are some programs like Mississippi State and Arkansas that NEVER beat Alabama with Saban despite playing them every year.

I don't think a single SEC program had more than 2-3 wins against Saban.

 

[farmdogvol]

Aub won 8 times LSU won 6 and UF won 4.

 

[volbound1700]

Aub won 8 times LSU won 6 and UF won 4.

Not sure where you got your numbers but they are wrong:

0 SEC teams had a winning streak against Nick Saban at the time of his retirement. Alabama has won at least its most recent game against every other member of the conference. While at Alabama, Saban went 17-0 against Arkansas, 12-5 against Auburn, 8-1 against Florida, 8-2 against Georgia, 6-0 against Kentucky, 13-5 against LSU, 16-1 against Mississippi State, 2-0 against Missouri, 15-2 against Ole Miss, 2-1 against South Carolina, 16-1 against Tennessee, 10-2 against Texas A&M and 4-0 against Vanderbilt.

SEC Football by the Numbers: Nick Saban

Before retiring on Wednesday, Nick Saban spent 22 seasons as an SEC head coach.

www.al.com

 

[farmdogvol]

Not sure where you got your numbers but they are wrong:

0 SEC teams had a winning streak against Nick Saban at the time of his retirement. Alabama has won at least its most recent game against every other member of the conference. While at Alabama, Saban went 17-0 against Arkansas, 12-5 against Auburn, 8-1 against Florida, 8-2 against Georgia, 6-0 against Kentucky, 13-5 against LSU, 16-1 against Mississippi State, 2-0 against Missouri, 15-2 against Ole Miss, 2-1 against South Carolina, 16-1 against Tennessee, 10-2 against Texas A&M and 4-0 against Vanderbilt.

SEC Football by the Numbers: Nick Saban

Before retiring on Wednesday, Nick Saban spent 22 seasons as an SEC head coach.

www.al.com

Got the win totals from 24/7 sports website. Looks like some of those numbers were from when he was at LSU also.

 

[volbound1700]

Got the win totals from 24/7 sports website. Looks like some of those numbers were from when he was at LSU also.

Yeah, the 2007 as well as LSU are just a different story. A lot of the losses you see on there are from 2007 season where he lost 6 games (Georgia and Miss State beat them in 2007).

My point is that Alabama has just dominated every one, not just Tennessee. Tennessee has struggled not because of a "curse" with these teams but because we just haven't been good. The curse was not hiring the right coaches, not recruiting enough of the right players and/or developing them, and not having a winning culture.

If you keep quoting a curse, I supposed it will happen. I don't see it.

You know who doesn't talk about curses? Alabama and Florida fans. Alabama was supposedly curse with Tennessee and Fulmer for a while but they got the right coach and it solved itself.

 

[Rocky Top T]

Lotta numbers but for me, the only one that matters is 2 wins in the last 19 years.

Correct. The numbers don't mean nothing. They have owned us

 

[volbound1700]

Correct. The numbers don't mean nothing. They have owned us

So have Alabama, Georgia, and frankly most teams ranked in the top 25 that we have played. Heck, I think Auburn and Arkansas have had just as good a winning % as Florida during that span. We just don't play them annually.

 

[volbound1700]

Bump for fans that missed this one

 

[Volizona]

In the 90s we had equal talent most years, but played like a middle school team against them. In 99, 00 we should have easily closed out those games but ended up losing on controversial plays in the final seconds. In 02 we have the better team but got embarrassed. In 2014 we lost to Muschamp in a ridiculous game we should have closed out easily. In 2015 and 2017 we lost on Hail Marys. In 2022 we almost chocked away a game we dominated. In 2023 we had no business losing at all. This is when Heupel for some reason started running the ball up the middle on 3rd and long thinking that would somehow get back in the game. I don’t believe in curses but their is definitely some kind of weird psychological baggage going on here. The law of averages says it’s unlikely that every bad break that happens always falls on our side of the fence. It started with Spurrier and hasn’t ended.