Florida Curse - A myth and here are the stats to prove it

[NighthawkVol]

True but our 2015 team was snake bitten. They lost off that blown hail mary play at the end if you remember. They also choked away a 3 TD lead in the late 4th quarter against Oklahoma and lost off last minute plays to Alabama and Arkansas.

That was a rough year for excruciating losses (at least we beat Georgia).

The Hail Mary was 2017. 2015 was when we gave up 4th and 17, then missed a long FG at the end.

 

[KTrain]

Here is a breakdown of the records of Florida and Tennessee every year since 2000:

Year	Result	Florida Record	TN Record	Florida Recruiting ranking	Tennessee Recruiting Ranking
2000	Loss 27-23	10-3 (10)	8-4 (NR)	No data	No data
2001	Win 34-32	10-2 (3)	11-2 (4)	No data	No data
2002	Loss 30-13	8-5 (NR)	8-5 (NR)	20	2
2003	Win 24-10	8-5 (24)	10-3 (15)	2	18
2004	Win 30-28	7-5 (NR)	10-3 (13)	7	11
2005	Loss 16-7	9-3 (12)	5-6 (NR)	15	4
2006	Loss 21-20	13-1 (1)	9-4 (25)	2	23
2007	Loss 59-20	9-4 (13)	10-4 (12)	1	3
2008	Loss 30-6	13-1 (1)	5-7 (NR)	3	35
2009	Loss 23-13	13-1 (3)	7-6 (NR)	11	10
2010	Loss 31-17	8-5 (NR)	6-7 (NR)	2	9
2011	Loss 33-23	7-6 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	12	13
2012	Loss 37-20	11-2 (9)	5-7 (NR)	3	17
2013	Loss 31-17	4-8 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	4	21
2014	Loss 10-9	7-5 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	8	5
2015	Loss 28-27	10-4 (25)	9-4 (22)	23	5
2016	Win 38-28	9-4 (14)	9-4 (22)	14	15
2017	Loss 26-20	4-7 (NR)	4-8 (NR)	9	15
2018	Loss 47-21	10-3 (7)	5-7 (NR)	17	20
2019	Loss 34-3	11-2 (6)	8-5 (NR)	8	13
2020	Loss 19-31	8-4 (13)	3-7 (NR)	7	8
2021	Loss 38-14	6-7 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	10	35
2022	Win 38-33	6-7 (NR)	11-2 (6)	18	12
2023	Loss 29-16	5-7 (NR)	9-4 (17)	13	12

Effectively, if you look at the statistics, Florida has recruited better in nearly every time period and has had better records overall than Tennessee in most of the years.

A few surprises.

2015 Florida finished 10-4 but only #25 in AP poll. I had to look that one up. Florida ended the year on 3-game skit so they were pretty solid until last 3 games. Granted their competition up ticked for those last 3 games.

A lot of the games have been closer than I expected. The close games almost always favored Florida. I remember 2000, 2014, and 2015 as being really excruciating close losses.

2001 Tennessee is the ONLY underdog Tennessee team to beat Florida.

Tennessee is, or should have been the underdog in over 90% of the matchups. Frankly, Tennessee has NOT been as good a program as Florida. It isn't a "curse", it is the better team winning.

Heupel hasn't done that well against Florida so far. The 2021 loss was one of Heupel's worse defeats (granted it is year 1 which is typically a crap shoot).

The only years were Tennessee was clearly better and lost to Florida were 2002 and 2023. You can maybe argue that 2013, 2014, and 2015 Tennessee should have won as well. Butch Jones era saw the most excruciating losses to Florida.

Jim McElwain was statistically better as a coach than I expected. I remember him not being a great coach but he had about as good a performance in recruiting and record as Dan Mullin and was better than any Tennessee coach minus Fulmer and maybe Heupel.

Good info, its easy to blame things on a curse but looking at this with out the emotion of game week etc... You look and for 20 years most we have just been outmatched by better players and better coaching and throw in a bad Administration and its easy to see why we have been mediocre since 2000 with just a few moments of glee.

 

[KTrain]

It hasn’t helped playing most of those games at the hottest time of the year. Plus the SEC or NCAAT dictated that UT’s bench was put on the east sideline for a while. Start times in 2008 and 2010 were 3:30. UT was on the east side in 2009 (Kiffin’s year) and I think in Fulmer’s last year (2008). I’m not sure of the other years.

UT played 2001 in December at the Swamp and won.

I’d reckon that the series would be more equal had Florida been required to play some cold weather games in Knoxville over the last 40+ years.

Yep, that 2001 was moved to end of season because the twin tower 9/11 disaster, I had some Gator friends that after the game said if we'd played in the Swamp in September we would have rolled.

 

[adam.vol]

When TN did have a good recruiting class, many players did not make it to the field for us. Arrests, grades, transfers, etc.

Kiffin took as many guys as he could to USC. Jones’s guys left. Pruitts guys left. I think most of Fulmer’s crew stayed (shows that he actually cared about the school and not the paycheck). Did Dooley have any guys?

 

[volbound1700]

When TN did have a good recruiting class, many players did not make it to the field for us. Arrests, grades, transfers, etc.

Kiffin took as many guys as he could to USC. Jones’s guys left. Pruitts guys left. I think most of Fulmer’s crew stayed (shows that he actually cared about the school and not the paycheck). Did Dooley have any guys?

We had talent from the 2014-2016 range. With slightly better coaching and luck, those Butch Jones teams could have done great things. We probably should have won the SEC East.

JaJuan Jennings, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Hurd, Josh Dobbs, Derek Barnett, Cameron Sutton, etc. This was a good football team. It had no business losing to South Carolina and Vandy. Poor coaching by Jones. Now to be fair, we went 1-2 during Florida in that period and could have easily been 3-0.

One trend that Vols fans are not seeing is that we have a knack, in this losing streak, of keeping the game close against better Florida teams but losing in excruciating fashion. This was common during Butch Jones era.

So we have a knack of getting into the game and playing them tough but finding a way to lose. I think that is what is driving the "curse" belief. Those Florida teams we lost to were arguably better but we played them tough.

Kentucky had similar issues either. There is a classic SEC Short about Archaeologist digging up last win by Kentucky over Florida. Kentucky would lose in excruciating ways, even with Mark Stoops. However, they have a 3 game winning streak over Florida now.

 

[OrangeCola]

in the last 30 years we have beaten Florida only 6 times.
Vanderbilt has beaten us 6 times in the last 30 years

 

[Sarms58]

I'd argue that 2023 was mostly due to injuries along our O-line and Pili being out on D. They had a running back who now starts for UGA who made our defense pay.

And their QB had a really good game throwing short routes. They just kept moving the chains and wore down our D.

 

[volbound1700]

in the last 30 years we have beaten Florida only 6 times.
Vanderbilt has beaten us 6 times in the last 30 years

So Vandy has a Tennessee curse? Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee 3-4 times as well?

When was the last time Tennessee beat Arkansas? We have an Arkansas curse? How about Georgia? How many times have we beaten Alabama the last 30 years? Georgia?

What about Auburn? How many wins in last 30 years over them? We have an Auburn curse.

Frankly, Tennessee has had a curse. It is called not developing and putting elite teams on the field. That is Tennessee's curse! A lot of it was coaching and administrative support as pointed out in this thread.

 

[adam.vol]

We had talent from the 2014-2016 range. With slightly better coaching and luck, those Butch Jones teams could have done great things. We probably should have won the SEC East.

JaJuan Jennings, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Hurd, Josh Dobbs, Derek Barnett, Cameron Sutton, etc. This was a good football team. It had no business losing to South Carolina and Vandy. Poor coaching by Jones. Now to be fair, we went 1-2 during Florida in that period and could have easily been 3-0.

One trend that Vols fans are not seeing is that we have a knack, in this losing streak, of keeping the game close against better Florida teams but losing in excruciating fashion. This was common during Butch Jones era.

So we have a knack of getting into the game and playing them tough but finding a way to lose. I think that is what is driving the "curse" belief. Those Florida teams we lost to were arguably better but we played them tough.

Kentucky had similar issues either. There is a classic SEC Short about Archaeologist digging up last win by Kentucky over Florida. Kentucky would lose in excruciating ways, even with Mark Stoops. However, they have a 3 game winning streak over Florida now.

Reading your post got me thinking a little more clearly (at least I hope).

We only win when we play damn near perfect football against Florida. Their defense always shows up and our offense gets lost on the way to the game more times than not.

We can’t afford a boat race with a team that always has a good defense - that’s our issue. Our defense has to play better than theirs and our offense has to give the defense a break. UT putting up “Fun & Gun” numbers has not happened since 1993.

As a matter of fact, we have only been able to win home games because the crowd noise has been the tipping point in giving us the better defense for the contest. We only won in 2001 at the Swamp because our defense was one of the all time greats and didn’t need the crowd help to be the better crew that day.

 

[volbound1700]

Reading your post got me thinking a little more clearly (at least I hope).

We only win when we play damn near perfect football against Florida. Their defense always shows up and our offense gets lost on the way to the game more times than not.

We can’t afford a boat race with a team that always has a good defense - that’s our issue. Our defense has to play better than theirs and our offense has to give the defense a break. UT putting up “Fun & Gun” numbers has not happened since 1993.

As a matter of fact, we have only been able to win home games because the crowd noise has been the tipping point in giving us the better defense for the contest. We only won in 2001 at the Swamp because our defense was one of the all time greats and didn’t need the crowd help to be the better crew that day.

Florida has given everyone fits, not just Tennessee. The only teams that have consistently beat them are Georgia with Kirby Smart and Alabama with Saban. They have athletes all over the field.

Tennessee has done worse lately. Truly the 2023 game seems like an enigma and it seems a lot like that Arkansas lost this Saturday or the South Carolina loss in 2022. Heupel has a coaching issue in major road games. It seems like the team looks different, there is a lower level of confidence, the play calling is different, etc. This is why I am more confident of the matchup on Saturday and not buying into a Florida curse.

 

[adam.vol]

Florida has given everyone fits, not just Tennessee. The only teams that have consistently beat them are Georgia with Kirby Smart and Alabama with Saban. They have athletes all over the field.

Tennessee has done worse lately. Truly the 2023 game seems like an enigma and it seems a lot like that Arkansas lost this Saturday or the South Carolina loss in 2022. Heupel has a coaching issue in major road games. It seems like the team looks different, there is a lower level of confidence, the play calling is different, etc. This is why I am more confident of the matchup on Saturday and not buying into a Florida curse.

Yeah, there’s no such thing as a curse to a god fearing man.

Florida just happens to have a more populated recruiting base. It’s been easier for Florida to complete their roster even in the bad years. We only have had the talent to match them in our good years. Unless Miami, FSU, South Florida, and UCF all have good teams, it’s going to be difficult to see Florida down enough that they should be a cake walk.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Jim McElwain was statistically better as a coach than I expected. I remember him not being a great coach but he had about as good a performance in recruiting and record as Dan Mullin and was better than any Tennessee coach minus Fulmer and maybe Heupel.

The General says, whoa back, son. And John Barnhill. And Doug Dickey.

And probably a couple of others. Bill Battle and Bowden Wyatt may both have him beat in win percentages.

Johnny Majors, who we all love, was actually probably the closest comparison to McElwain. Look at how close these stats are, both in the SEC and career-total:

--> McElwain went 22-12 at Florida. That's a .647 win rate. He has gone 76-58 so far overall as a head coach: that's .567.
--> Johnny Majors was 116-62-8 at Tennessee, a .645 win rate. He went 185-137-10 overall, which is .572.

So McElwain was roughly on par with our ~ 7th or 8th best head coach, going purely by win percentages.

Go Vols!

 

[Volador]

The Curse shall be broken. Ah ha ha ha. Aaaaahhh ha ha ha ha ha.

​

 

[volbound1700]

The General says, whoa back, son. And John Barnhill. And Doug Dickey.

And probably 3 or 4 others. Including Johnny Majors.

I was talking about during the period in question.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I was talking about during the period in question.

Why?

Nvm, I know why. Really dislike when a Vols fan goes out of their way to compare our program AT ITS WORST to our top rivals, usually at or close to their best.

It's llike some of us are just into self flagellation.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

We probably would’ve lost if that game was in September . We weren’t really healthy at that point.

 

[volbound1700]

Why?

Nvm, I know why. Really dislike when a Vols fan goes out of their way to compare our program AT ITS WORST to our top rivals, usually at or close to their best.

It's llike some of us are just into self flagellation.

View attachment 685264

What the hell are you talking about? Go read the OP. As pointed out, McElwain had a better record than most of the Tennessee coaches in that period and really wasn't that far off from Dan Mullen.

Point is, UF has been better. There isn't a curse.

Also, what does Neyland have to do with this era? The game is entirely different. They had segregation in his era.

 

[Tnphil]

All I know we are 6-24 against Florida the last 30 games.....That is bad in my book whether it's a 1 point or 30 point loss.

 

[KTrain]

Florida has given everyone fits, not just Tennessee. The only teams that have consistently beat them are Georgia with Kirby Smart and Alabama with Saban. They have athletes all over the field.

Tennessee has done worse lately. Truly the 2023 game seems like an enigma and it seems a lot like that Arkansas lost this Saturday or the South Carolina loss in 2022. Heupel has a coaching issue in major road games. It seems like the team looks different, there is a lower level of confidence, the play calling is different, etc. This is why I am more confident of the matchup on Saturday and not buying into a Florida curse.

I still believe if Cooper Mays plays @ Florida last year we win and Mertz had his best game of the year @ QB vs us.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

What the hell are you talking about? Go read the OP. As pointed out, McElwain had a better record than most of the Tennessee coaches in that period and really wasn't that far off from Dan Mullen.

If you had specified that you were talking about Vols coaches in that period originally, it would've made sense. As it was, it didn't. So you got my response.

Go Vols!

 

[volbound1700]

If you had specified that you were talking about Vols coaches in that period originally, it would've made sense. As it was, it didn't. So you got my response.

Go Vols!

You know what your doing, just trolling. Nobody else reading this thread brought it up.

 

[volbound1700]

I still believe if Cooper Mays plays @ Florida last year we win and Mertz had his best game of the year @ QB vs us.

True but you need to be able to overcome that with coaching and preparation. It was Florida's best game of the season.

EDIT: I am just made different though. I notice at work or playing board games with people when I consistently win. I am ultra competitive. My first thought when Arkansas rolled around was a question about when we last won there and this was a chance to get a big win at a place we haven't won at it before.

The issue is that the Tennessee Vols football team lets me down far more than anything, perhaps, in my life. I know this isn't true but it makes me wonder if they have the same obsessive competitive spirit.

As a coach, I would probably post our all-time serious records against every SEC opponent and obsess about turning that around with the ones we could (i.e. Auburn, Missouri, Florida, Georgia). I would also obsess about the 1998 forever comment. I see each game as a chance to change things.

 

[Adam Sandler]

Here is a breakdown of the records of Florida and Tennessee every year since 2000:

Year	Result	Florida Record	TN Record	Florida Recruiting ranking	Tennessee Recruiting Ranking
2000	Loss 27-23	10-3 (10)	8-4 (NR)	No data	No data
2001	Win 34-32	10-2 (3)	11-2 (4)	No data	No data
2002	Loss 30-13	8-5 (NR)	8-5 (NR)	20	2
2003	Win 24-10	8-5 (24)	10-3 (15)	2	18
2004	Win 30-28	7-5 (NR)	10-3 (13)	7	11
2005	Loss 16-7	9-3 (12)	5-6 (NR)	15	4
2006	Loss 21-20	13-1 (1)	9-4 (25)	2	23
2007	Loss 59-20	9-4 (13)	10-4 (12)	1	3
2008	Loss 30-6	13-1 (1)	5-7 (NR)	3	35
2009	Loss 23-13	13-1 (3)	7-6 (NR)	11	10
2010	Loss 31-17	8-5 (NR)	6-7 (NR)	2	9
2011	Loss 33-23	7-6 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	12	13
2012	Loss 37-20	11-2 (9)	5-7 (NR)	3	17
2013	Loss 31-17	4-8 (NR)	5-7 (NR)	4	21
2014	Loss 10-9	7-5 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	8	5
2015	Loss 28-27	10-4 (25)	9-4 (22)	23	5
2016	Win 38-28	9-4 (14)	9-4 (22)	14	15
2017	Loss 26-20	4-7 (NR)	4-8 (NR)	9	15
2018	Loss 47-21	10-3 (7)	5-7 (NR)	17	20
2019	Loss 34-3	11-2 (6)	8-5 (NR)	8	13
2020	Loss 19-31	8-4 (13)	3-7 (NR)	7	8
2021	Loss 38-14	6-7 (NR)	7-6 (NR)	10	35
2022	Win 38-33	6-7 (NR)	11-2 (6)	18	12
2023	Loss 29-16	5-7 (NR)	9-4 (17)	13	12

Effectively, if you look at the statistics, Florida has recruited better in nearly every time period and has had better records overall than Tennessee in most of the years.

A few surprises.

2015 Florida finished 10-4 but only #25 in AP poll. I had to look that one up. Florida ended the year on 3-game skit so they were pretty solid until last 3 games. Granted their competition up ticked for those last 3 games.

A lot of the games have been closer than I expected. The close games almost always favored Florida. I remember 2000, 2014, and 2015 as being really excruciating close losses.

2001 Tennessee is the ONLY underdog Tennessee team to beat Florida.

Tennessee is, or should have been the underdog in over 90% of the matchups. Frankly, Tennessee has NOT been as good a program as Florida. It isn't a "curse", it is the better team winning.

Heupel hasn't done that well against Florida so far. The 2021 loss was one of Heupel's worse defeats (granted it is year 1 which is typically a crap shoot).

The only years were Tennessee was clearly better and lost to Florida were 2002 and 2023. You can maybe argue that 2013, 2014, and 2015 Tennessee should have won as well. Butch Jones era saw the most excruciating losses to Florida.

Jim McElwain was statistically better as a coach than I expected. I remember him not being a great coach but he had about as good a performance in recruiting and record as Dan Mullin and was better than any Tennessee coach minus Fulmer and maybe Heupel.

Yeah you can see it in the record and the recruiting. When we recruited better 2 years in a row, it’s followed by a win. They’ve had more talented teams than us in all but a couple seasons. In nearly all the seasons we lost, they had a better record, ie they were a better team both in talent and in coaching.

The only years that don’t make sense are 2022 and 2023. 2022 was a remarkably well coached lesser talented team. 2023 seems to be a remarkably poorly coached team. What will 2024 be?

 

[volbound1700]

Yeah you can see it in the record and the recruiting. When we recruited better 2 years in a row, it’s followed by a win. They’ve had more talented teams than us in all but a couple seasons. In nearly all the seasons we lost, they had a better record, ie they were a better team both in talent and in coaching.

The only years that don’t make sense are 2022 and 2023. 2022 was a remarkably well coached lesser talented team. 2023 seems to be a remarkably poorly coached team. What will 2024 be?

Great post. Kind of the point I was trying to make as well.

 

[Adam Sandler]

Great post. Kind of the point I was trying to make as well.

Great research. Great point. WGWTFA