Gallup Daily tracking poll

#27
#27
there's some talk that many of these major polls are oversampling blacks and democrats, which is accounting for the large gap. Apparently, only Zogby is using samples that are actually representative of the US population.
 
#28
#28
MG1968 said:
there's some talk that many of these major polls are oversampling blacks and democrats, which is accounting for the large gap. Apparently, only Zogby is using samples that are actually representative of the US population.
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I don't understand why the polls would try to come up with bad numbers...it isn't in their interest to look bad come election day....

It doesn't make sense to sample the representative US population, but it doesn't necessarily make sense to oversample a specific group. Obviously, if you want to try to get a good estimate - you want to sample an accurate population of likely voters. If more democrats are likely to vote, then you sample more democrats and vice-versa. However, that is obviously the hard part. There are more registered democrats than registered republicans, so that can play in as well.

Finding the right people to poll is obviously the rub....
 
#30
#30
lazy4163 said:
A eleven point gap in October is not good for him. Barring a major Obama Gaffe its already over.
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you would have a very good point if there were any remote reliability in something that points to an 11 point gap at this point in our history.
 
#31
#31
lazy4163 said:
A eleven point gap in October is not good for him. Barring a major Obama Gaffe its already over.
Click to expand...

I think an international incident or terrorist attack might change the equation somewhat. At this point in '04, we'd had like 50 terror alerts, although I doubt the alerts alone would work. I fully expect a new video of bin Laden endorsing Obama in the last week before the election.

On a separate note, I think Obama has reached his ceiling. It's hard to do much better than 51-52% with such a highly polarized electorate. I still expect the race to be decided by 4-5 points, which still results in an electoral college landslide.
 
#32
#32
notverycrucial said:
I think an international incident or terrorist attack might change the equation somewhat. At this point in '04, we'd had like 50 terror alerts, although I doubt the alerts alone would work. I fully expect a new video of bin Laden endorsing Obama in the last week before the election.

On a separate note, I think Obama has reached his ceiling. It's hard to do much better than 51-52% with such a highly polarized electorate. I still expect the race to be decided by 4-5 points, which still results in an electoral college landslide.
Click to expand...

If either candidate hits 51-52% they will be looking 340+ electoral votes in the face and we will know who the next president is by about 8:25 CT on Nov 4
 
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