The tendency for the LV's the last few years is that they get progressively worse as the season goes on. Almost all our wins, the last few years against ranked teams, have come before the middle of January. And that was a team with 2 or 3 high level upperclassmen (Nared, Russell and Deshields). We don't have upperclassmen on that level this year.
Could they win ? Yes.
Will they win ? In all probability, No.
I wouldn't bet on them winning this game and, I'll venture to say, neither would you.
Just admit, that as a fan, you would like to see the LV's beat Mississippi St. That would be good enough. All (well, almost all !) LV fans want to see us win. To try to justify it with some kind of analysis seems disingenuous.