GDP Revised Downward

#26
#26
PKT_VOL said:
This has nothing to due with this administration but rather an accumulation of decades worth of terrible education policies and globalization catching up to us.
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Mostly agree, although I think it does have something to do with the current administration since they are the ones that currently have the ability to enact policies to reverse course.
 
#27
#27
lawgator1 said:
It's not surprising that those who tie their understanding of the world, if not their own livelihoods, to the current business models would disparage the notion that rapid advances in technology make their thinking obsolete.
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Says an attorney.
 
#28
#28
lawgator1 said:
It's not surprising that those who tie their understanding of the world, if not their own livelihoods, to the current business models would disparage the notion that rapid advances in technology make their thinking obsolete.
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Has there ever been a time when there wasn't a market for those willing to be educated, work hard and innovate?
 
#29
#29
GAVol said:
Has there ever been a time when there wasn't a market for those willing to be educated, work hard and innovate?
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Has there ever been a market in which the wealthy are scared of the regulatory environment and keep capital spending rolling?
 
#30
#30
GAVol said:
Mostly agree, although I think it does have something to do with the current administration since they are the ones that currently have the ability to enact policies to reverse course.
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I alluded to that in my previous post. :hi:

I don't often side with Lawgator, but I think he is right if I understand him correctly. We are definitely going through an economic paradigm shift at the moment. The unemployment problems are going to be with us quite a while. As VolNSkins said, our deficiency as a nation in science and technology will hurt us for quite a few years. It has nothing to do with Obama. Conversely, it does not excuse Obama from his economic policy failures.
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#31
#31
PKT_VOL said:
Throughout civilized history, yes. There have been other shifts due to the advancement in technology. It still does not diminish the fact that there will be usually high unemployment for awhile comparative to what we are accustomed to. This has nothing to due with this administration but rather an accumulation of decades worth of terrible education policies and globalization catching up to us. Furthermore, there is not a quick fix that either the political ideology could enact to significantly reverse this economic trend. The sad reality is that a good size portion of our population do not possess neither the education or the skills to compete within a global market. There is only a finite amount of domestic service based jobs available. The advancements in technology are dwindling those jobs too.
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But I would argue this is not due to computers....at all. Jobs lost to tech innovation in the short run are accounted for in the natural rate of unemployment. In the long run, those lost jobs are found elsewhere.
 
#32
#32
nbakerld said:
But I would argue this is not due to computers....at all. Jobs lost to tech innovation in the short run are accounted for in the natural rate of unemployment.
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Eh, the line is not so cut and dry. I wouldn't say at all. I think there can be an argument made for artificial intelligence in general which includes computers. It has allowed companies to be automated whenever possible and has drastically decreased the need for unskilled labor. I think the two biggest factors are our educational system and globalization. However, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (in my opinion) certainly has a role in our current economic dilemma.
 
#33
#33
lawgator1 said:
It's not surprising that those who tie their understanding of the world, if not their own livelihoods, to the current business models would disparage the notion that rapid advances in technology make their thinking obsolete.
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Oh for God's sake. Really?
 
#36
#36
PKT_VOL said:
Eh, the line is not so cut and dry. I wouldn't say at all. I think there can be an argument made for artificial intelligence in general which includes computers. It has allowed companies to be automated whenever possible and has drastically decreased the need for unskilled labor. I think the two biggest factors are our educational system and globalization. However, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (in my opinion) certainly has a role in our current economic dilemma.
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The definition of unskilled labor changes, though. The ability to read used to qualify someone as skilled. Sure computers have destroyed a lot of unskilled labor, but they've also created a lot of jobs that require little to no skill.

In college I worked customer service for Convergy's. They'll hire ANYBODY that can pass a drug test. It basically requires that you read and have the ability to turn on a computer. The computer itself turns unskilled workers into skilled workers. People who would never be capable of troubleshooting any device are now able to walk you through the process, simply because their computer tells them every step. If you've ever thought your customer service agent was a retard, it was probably true.
 
#38
#38
I just think that the notion that Obama could do much to influence these kind of issues is silly. I am sure you can point to individual decisions that affect a particular company, or even a portion of an industry. But the structural changes that are taking place are so huge and so systemic that this, or something very close, would happen regardless of who was POTUS.

By way of example, those of you clamoring for a better educated workforce when it comes to IT technology certainly cannot think that we would overhaul our workforce on technology in the three years Obama has been president.
 
#39
#39
lawgator1 said:
By way of example, those of you clamoring for a better educated workforce when it comes to IT technology certainly cannot think that we would overhaul our workforce on technology in the three years Obama has been president.
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Of course not . . . and I think everybody gets that. But would it kill him to lead a little?
 
#41
#41
nbakerld said:
The definition of unskilled labor changes, though. The ability to read used to qualify someone as skilled. Sure computers have destroyed a lot of unskilled labor, but they've also created a lot of jobs that require little to no skill.

In college I worked customer service for Convergy's. They'll hire ANYBODY that can pass a drug test. It basically requires that you read and have the ability to turn on a computer. The computer itself turns unskilled workers into skilled workers. People who would never be capable of troubleshooting any device are now able to walk you through the process, simply because their computer tells them every step. If you've ever thought your customer service agent was a retard, it was probably true.
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I don't disagree with anything in this post. I guess our point of contention is the rate at which jobs are being lost or gained by AI. You obviously believe they are roughly equivalent.

I think tend to think that the rate at which AI is advancing (in and of itself) sets it apart from various other inventions throughout history. In other words, the technological inventions of the past tended to be one big step forward in a certain area with various upgrades to the invention later on. However, AI is expanding at a rate which I don't think we have ever seen (Moore's Law). Also, unlike the cotton gin which was mentioned earlier, or the printing press, AI advancement has his tentacles firmly in just about every economic sector. Thus, in my opinion, jobs are being lost to the advancement of AI at the present time. This does not necessarily mean that this will be the case in the future. A complete overhaul in the way we educate could go a long way to accomplishing that goal.
 
#43
#43
Pace of innovation in business has always been extreme, save the few industries where monopoly power repressed innovation.
 
#44
#44
nbakerld said:
When you first started calling me naked, it annoyed me because I thought you thought that it was getting under my skin (so I guess you were right?). Now I view it as a term of affection/wishful thinking.
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always term of endearment, for a while oe thought was actually your screen name
 
#45
#45
BigPapaVol said:
Pace of innovation in business has always been extreme, save the few industries where monopoly power repressed innovation.
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You think that, in terms of technology and labor-reducing devices, the pace of innovation has been relatively steady over, say, the last 10 years compared to the previous five or six ten year increments?

If so, you are nuts.
 
#46
#46
lawgator1 said:
You think that, in terms of technology and labor-reducing devices, the pace of innovation has been relatively steady over, say, the last 10 years compared to the previous five or six ten year increments?

If so, you are nuts.
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link?

How did we have below 5% unemployment just 4 years ago but now 7.5% is the new normal?
 
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