Good article on the climate change controversy

#26
#26
So if the record is so short and errored, and the projections are all off, how do you know that there is no "appreciable difference" in temperature?

And what do you mean by "appreciable?"

Basically I'm talking any thing under .5-1 degree temp rise worldwide. I can't say that I 100% "know" anything, but from what I've seen, I don't think that all the fuss is needed as of right now.

Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe just 200 total years of industrialization can effect the environment in a noticeable negative way. It just doesn't seem that man could have that big of an effect on the environment.
 
#27
#27
If you buy the whole global warming theory and many do, possibly because they are constantly brainwashed by the media, if you actually do the math you can still only come to the conclussion that human activity is very negligible unless you seize on the trigger theory, in that our small input might be the trigger that would bring about catastropic change.

I can understand where you are coming from here to a certain degree (no pun intended). I have often talked about the uncertainty in the earth's response to rising temperatures. Forecast models (which have a lot of uncertainty themselves) suggest that we might (with reasonable probability) see temperature increases as high as 3-5 degrees C on global average. This doesn't seem like all that much to me, though I do know that the local average increase at the poles would be even higher. I think that there is a lot more work that needs to be done in understanding what these impacts might really look like and how much investment is needed to stop them.

I believe that increasing CO2 does cause warming. I even think that it might be appreciable...on the order of a few degrees C over the next 100 years or so. But, I'm not certain what that means with regard to precipiation, sea level rise, etc. And...I am certainly not disposed to believe that this sort of change would mean (wide-spread) catastrophe in any way. There may be some areas that are really hurt by it, perhaps with regard to availability of fresh water, etc. The only way true catastrophe would come into play, IMO, would be through one of these 'tipping points,' but these are certainly not well understood. I think that the only one that is fairly well understood would be melting the permafrost...at least, I should say, that's one that I can understand fairly well.

I don't care much for it when people argue that there's just no way that man can influence our climate. It seems quite fathomable to me that man's GHG emissions can affect global temperatures to some extent. Not just fathomable - but probable to me at this point. I will readily admit that it annoys me just as much when some Greenpeace ass clown comes up to me and starts going on about climate change...some may know their stuff, most don't...and shouldn't be hocking that crap on the streets. I'm still largely undecided about what action I think actually needs to be taken
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#28
#28
A friend of mine wrote a nice op-ed piece recently that can be found at (Models, Schmodels! - The Tech)...here's an excerpt:

Yes, I’ve seen the reports from the British Lord Nicholas Stern as well as the IPCC and their de facto spokesperson, Al Gore. I’ve seen the graphs where some one hundred climate models provide a range of forecasts for global warming and the world is at or exceeding the top end. People smarter and with more resources than me are pounding at the problem of climate prediction with all the might and fury of careers and reputations on the line.

But just because these results represent the state-of-the-art and offer cutting-edge science doesn’t mean the climate forecasting models are necessarily good enough to bet our global economy on trillion-dollar policy actions like capping CO2 emissions. The uncertainty is too large, the error bars too wide, the approximations too rough.

....

Any scientist worth their salt would be falling over themselves to provide conditionals, uncertainties, hem and haws on any sort of definitive conclusion. There are plenty of such scientists and they do themselves a credit to their field. More visible, however, are the dogmatists who insist that the forecasted-by-computers consequences are so dire that urgent and immediate action must be taken, caution be damned.
...

To be clear, the general direction of the scientific evidence is toward anthropocentric global warming. The most urgent warnings about catastrophic climate change caution against nonlinearities and feedbacks that would propel our world quickly toward disaster. But these very “tipping points” are the most uncertain approximations of our climate forecasting models and thus produce the least certain results.

A nuanced view would be to accept our current climate change along with a large margin of error for the version of global warming labeled “dangerous anthropomorphic interference”. One would then support policy actions as a type of hedge or insurance against the risks of climate change. An enlightened political debate would be upfront about the unknowns that result from the computer models and account for these costs accordingly.

As to the absolute certainty of catastrophic climate change barring immediate action? I’m not convinced, neither should you be. Probably.

I think that the author overlooks someof the attempts that are made to quantify the uncertainty in the models and report this as a range when discussing results of the model, but his point is still a reasonable one...and one that I share in some respects. I certainly agree that to pretend that this is open and shut and the answer is clear is a joke. However, I also think that it is as much a joke when folks wave there arms, claim there's nothing to see here, and proceed to encourage us to drive on by.
 
#29
#29
When the Vikings had vinyards in Greenland, we really don't know too much beyond the Holocene but theoretically it may have been idylic, as in the Garden of Eden or Amagadaveda if you prefer. (I had a friend who was in the studio when that was recorded by Iron Butterfly, not sure if he was the producer of record, he was a pretty slippery character.) :angel:

"To God one day can be as a thousand years and a thousand years can be as one day."

Other thoughts on this topic.

Carbon credit markets in Europe were a miserable failure, Cap and Trade will make the rich richer and the poor poorer and do not much to change climate, one way or the other. (except that those on the bottom end of the scale will have their way paid by those in the middle.)

When you say 'make the government wealthier and the private sector less prominate', you have the right idea but the wrong facts.

The government, to which the masses must support, or else, only goes deeper in debt to the top end of the private sector, namely the central bank, ie, the federal reserve which is privately owned.

Other industry and privately owned property becomes more and more influenced by government, ie 'owned'.

So what we have is creeping fascism, (or the other side of the same coin, communism or socialism). That is more and more power handed to the rulers in one way or another.

If you buy the whole global warming theory and many do, possibly because they are constantly brainwashed by the media, if you actually do the math you can still only come to the conclussion that human activity is very negligible unless you seize on the trigger theory, in that our small input might be the trigger that would bring about catastropic change.

Well now, how about sunspots or the lack thereof?? How about undersea volcanic activity?? (I'm firmly convinced that an undersea rift in the arctic ocean floor emitting hot gases there has far more to do with less sea ice and melting glaciers than human activity might have ever thought about.) As far as undersea volcanic vents, those are often in very deep areas, and by the time the water column is towards the surface, the temperature has mostly dispersed. Look at the mid-oceanic ridge in the Atlantic. You can't notice it on the surface. Furthermore, there is sea ice right on top of it, of no distinguishable difference in thickness than neighboring areas, throughout most of the year (sea ice used to be fairly perennial up there, but lately it has not been as widespread, to the point of new shipping lanes being utilized).

Then there is El Nino and La Nina which we can observe to affect climate, not only in North America but worldwide, and what do we know about what causes them???

I'd venture to say that SUV emississions in California have zero effects but does my theory have anything to do with California's stupid reactionary, paranoid ecological policies (that the rest of America is expected to pay for.?)

You don't have to convince me about the silliness of carbon markets or cap and trade. That is trying to put the genie back in the bottle in the most painful way.


As for the rest, I could go line-by-line, but then no one would read our exchanges. So I will cherry pick a little.

A lot of the resistance to the idea of anthropogenic-driven climate change is political. This is very much due to it being used as a leverage and lately a bludgeon on the political front, certainly being pushed as part of a larger agenda by some. That doesn't mean that it isn't a real phenomenon that we should be concerned about.

As far as the math behind human global climate change, you have to do the math not based on a yearly or even decade-long effect, but rather as a look at the cascading effect of the accumulating CO2 (which there certainly is, although I know you will argue it isn't a climate changing agent) and other greenhouse gases. I have heard climate as being described as (ironically) an oil tanker. It takes awhile relative to human perception to turn and change, but not a particularly lot of energy to do so. Yes, relative to the sun and Milankovitch cycles and the like humans have very little impact. But that slight tug can be all the difference.


You mention sunspots... Well of course the Sun is the largest driver of climate by far. That doesn't absolve other influences. The drivers of life for humans are oxygen, water, and food. That doesn't mean no harm can come to us as long as we have those things.

El Nino and El Nina's triggers are not fully understood, but it is known what they are, as far as a "sloshing" undersea thermal zones, swapping the hot western Pacific surface temperatures, with the cold water upwellings of the South American coast. We don't fully understand the human brain, but that doesn't mean we can't say a lot about the function of the brain, or more specifically what things will keep it healthy/make it sick.

Compared to coal plants, sure SUV emissions in California isn't a huge contributor. But we need electricity and coal is an abundant and cheap resource. SUV's are often a luxury and not fully "utilized," if you will pardon the quite lame pun. I don't personally believe they should be illegal. I just think people should be aware about efficiency. No matter what one believes about climate change, efficiency is good for the economy, but personally and nationally.

My frustration is that when I talk about climate change, I have to disclaim the wacky political stuff, the silly gaffs and exaggerated junk of politicians such as Gore, and the like. Gore does as much to hurt his cause as help it. The average climate change "believer" is filled with apocalyptic misinformation.


EDIT: Good post, TT. There is a healthy middle ground between grinding all economies and human progress to a hault to try and turn back the clock, and pretending humans could not play a role at all.
 
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#30
#30
Basically I'm talking any thing under .5-1 degree temp rise worldwide. I can't say that I 100% "know" anything, but from what I've seen, I don't think that all the fuss is needed as of right now.

Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe just 200 total years of industrialization can effect the environment in a noticeable negative way. It just doesn't seem that man could have that big of an effect on the environment.

We made the Salton sea by accident. The Tennessee river through Knoxville used to be a fast-moving rocky stream just 80 years ago, prone to frequent flooding. There used to be millions of passenger pigeons in the Eastern United States that were so numerous they would blacken the sky for days when they migrated. Now they are gone. There used to be a virtually unbroken continuous forest, from Labrador south to Florida, from the Atlantic to beyond the Mississippi. Take a look at google Earth, now.

For the first time in Earth's history, there are 6 billion intelligent and industrious large hominids all over the globe, carving out a life by any means necessary. How could we NOT have an impact? That's the real question.
 
#31
#31
We made the Salton sea by accident. The Tennessee river through Knoxville used to be a fast-moving rocky stream just 80 years ago, prone to frequent flooding. There used to be millions of passenger pigeons in the Eastern United States that were so numerous they would blacken the sky for days when they migrated. Now they are gone. There used to be a virtually unbroken continuous forest, from Labrador south to Florida, from the Atlantic to beyond the Mississippi. Take a look at google Earth, now.

For the first time in Earth's history, there are 6 billion intelligent and industrious large hominids all over the globe, carving out a life by any means necessary. How could we NOT have an impact? That's the real question.

I'm not saying we don't. I'm saying that it's most likely not a significant threat at this time. As much pollution and other things as we produce, we are still for the most part, insignificant compared to all the atmosphere on Earth.
 
#32
#32
I disagree. There really isn't that much atmosphere on Earth relative to size. It's paper thin compared to the size of the planet. the fact that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has nearly doubled since the industrial revolution shows that it is a finite substance.
 
#33
#33
Not trying to go off on too great a tangent here but what a couple degrees C are doing (or not doing) over the next century is so far down my list of "real" concerns it's laughable. Unless, of course, one takes into account the very real threat of how bad we can all get screwed over by the "powers that be" in the name of AGW. Whatever may or may not come to pass by whatever actions or inactions we take are, at best, currently unquantifiable. The social/political grab for power, control and fortune leveraged against those unquantifiables is demonstrable and observable in the here and now.

Want to scare me? Have a couple nutcases set off a nuke in a major city. I don't necessarily even mean a true nuclear blast as just a "dirty" bomb would probably suffice. Maybe I'm just cynical but I have absolute faith that if you put "nuclear" and "radiation" and "bomb" in the same newscast people will lose their freaking minds. As a group humans are extremely prone to panic and fear and a good psi op against us could cripple this country and double down on people being willing to sacrifice freedom for supposed safety. Throw what happens to global economic markets in the mix and things could truly get nasty...fast. Or maybe Iran will just bomb Israel.

Nah, let's just spend all this time and money sweating over what may (or may not) be happening to a couple degrees C over the time somebody not even born yet will have died of old age. I'm not suggesting we ignore it but I'm damn sure saying this country (and planet) has some real issues that can make the wheels come off a lot faster than the AGW boogeyman.

Sorry, feeling ranty this morning.
 
#34
#34
what he said. our enemies are watching in amazement at the fact that they may not have to fire one shot to see America destroyed... or maybe they need to flick that one domino, as in a dirty bomb.
 
#35
#35
I don't know, a couple of degrees C cooler for the average global temperature and we are in an ice age, with everything north of the Ohio river under the Laurentide ice sheet. That was the difference between now and when woolly mammoths were roaming northern Alabama.

You see two degrees, and think that means it being five or six degrees F different. Like 96 instead of 90 today. That's NOT what it means. A global average means a change in the length of time that we perceive as summer or winter. It can mean the difference between a small snow pack on the side of a mountain melting in by May or June, or it surviving the summer and growing into a glacier over the years. It could mean no appreciable temperature difference in a coastal area, and 15 or 20 degrees difference in an inland area.

You saying two degrees difference doesn't matter is the same as you saying "I fundamentally don't understand this subject matter." Which is fine, most people don't and thus the "controversy."
 
#36
#36
I don't know, a couple of degrees C cooler for the average global temperature and we are in an ice age, with everything north of the Ohio river under the Laurentide ice sheet. That was the difference between now and when woolly mammoths were roaming northern Alabama.

You see two degrees, and think that means it being five or six degrees F different. Like 96 instead of 90 today. That's NOT what it means. A global average means a change in the length of time that we perceive as summer or winter. It can mean the difference between a small snow pack on the side of a mountain melting in by May or June, or it surviving the summer and growing into a glacier over the years. It could mean no appreciable temperature difference in a coastal area, and 15 or 20 degrees difference in an inland area.

You saying two degrees difference doesn't matter is the same as you saying "I fundamentally don't understand this subject matter." Which is fine, most people don't and thus the "controversy."

FWIW I would be much more worried about the kind of global cooling you describe as I am any supposed warming.
 
#37
#37
FWIW I would be much more worried about the kind of global cooling you describe as I am any supposed warming.

Fair enough. If I were forced to pick one or the other, I would go warmer too. But then if I had the choice of being eaten by komodo dragons or being hung from the gallows, I would choose the gallows. That doesn't mean much.

Also, warming to that degree with our present continental arrangement leads to a strong possibility of it snapping back into an ice age. Keep in mind, we are actually in a short pause between ice ages, as the current cycle is several thousand years in an ice age, and about 11,000 to 12,000 year intermissions. All of civilized human history has been within this intermission. We're "due" to shift back into ice age mode in two thousand years or so (these are very rough time frames though, so don't set your watch on it). Now, if we go and disrupt the gulf stream of warm water coming up from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, we will likely put in motion a positive feedback loop that will push us back into the ice age period a bit early. So by heating, we actually DO risk cooling. That terrible "Day after Tomorrow" movie used that as its main plot tool, but what it depicted is utterly absurd on many levels. There wouldn't be a single catastrophic event, but rather a series of progressively cooler and longer winters in Western Europe over a period of years, and the ice age setting in over a few decades thereafter. It isn't like ice sheets would be ringing our back door bell in a week, either. It would still be a major deal.
 
#38
#38
Fair enough. If I were forced to pick one or the other, I would go warmer too. But then if I had the choice of being eaten by komodo dragons or being hung from the gallows, I would choose the gallows. That doesn't mean much.

Also, warming to that degree with our present continental arrangement leads to a strong possibility of it snapping back into an ice age. Keep in mind, we are actually in a short pause between ice ages, as the current cycle is several thousand years in an ice age, and about 11,000 to 12,000 year intermissions. All of civilized human history has been within this intermission. We're "due" to shift back into ice age mode in two thousand years or so (these are very rough time frames though, so don't set your watch on it). Now, if we go and disrupt the gulf stream of warm water coming up from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, we will likely put in motion a positive feedback loop that will push us back into the ice age period a bit early. So by heating, we actually DO risk cooling. That terrible "Day after Tomorrow" movie used that as its main plot tool, but what it depicted is utterly absurd on many levels. There wouldn't be a single catastrophic event, but rather a series of progressively cooler and longer winters in Western Europe over a period of years, and the ice age setting in over a few decades thereafter. It isn't like ice sheets would be ringing our back door bell in a week, either. It would still be a major deal.

Ohhhh no you don't. In 2,000 years if there's no ice age I am SO gonna come on here and bust your chops for it. :)
 
#40
#40
Basically I'm talking any thing under .5-1 degree temp rise worldwide. I can't say that I 100% "know" anything, but from what I've seen, I don't think that all the fuss is needed as of right now.

Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe just 200 total years of industrialization can effect the environment in a noticeable negative way. It just doesn't seem that man could have that big of an effect on the environment.

Good grief, we agree way too often!
 
#41
#41
I'm not saying we don't. I'm saying that it's most likely not a significant threat at this time. As much pollution and other things as we produce, we are still for the most part, insignificant compared to all the atmosphere on Earth.

Ok, this is starting to become a habit.
 
#42
#42
I'm not saying we don't. I'm saying that it's most likely not a significant threat at this time. As much pollution and other things as we produce, we are still for the most part, insignificant compared to all the atmosphere on Earth.

IP is usually pretty reliable but I don't know if I believe that part about passenger pigeons, what were they riding anyway??? Besides what happened to the bus pigeons??

I think that there is a lot more work that needs to be done in understanding what these impacts might really look like and how much investment is needed to stop them.

ENRON and AIG were two of the main pusher of cap and trade investments ten years ago, that should give you some idea, it sort of leagalizes what Bernie Madoff was doing, just on a scale a thousand times or so greater.

I think that the only one that is fairly well understood would be melting the permafrost...at least, I should say, that's one that I can understand fairly well.

I vote in favor of melting permafrost, the caribou would find other calving grounds and there would be no excuse for not drilling for more oil in Alaska, thus shutting off the cash drain to countries that want to do us in anyway.

I'm still largely undecided about what action I think actually needs to be taken.

I'm about to start a thread on the ins and outs of the cap and trade business. I thing the cap and trade route won't be so popular in a few years among the general population but by then there will be no way to get rid of it, just like the IRS and doubt they will be able to prove there are much less carbon emissions.

In another post you went on a short rant vs Geenpeacers etc.

Here is a quote from the man who originally started Greenpeace; "When I strated Greenpeace, I had no idea that it would end up being run by a bunch of scientific illiterates."

My frustration is that when I talk about climate change, I have to disclaim the wacky political stuff, the silly gaffs and exaggerated junk of politicians such as Gore, and the like. Gore does as much to hurt his cause as help it. The average climate change "believer" is filled with apocalyptic misinformation.

Gore will have his cap and trade legislation by the end of 2009 and will soon be a billionaire.
 

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