Here Comes the Recession

[NorthDallas40]

Zandi... lol. Yeah he’s a great barometer.

Here’s a piece from 2010. He’s been making impressions for a while now

The Abysmal Track Record of Moody’s Mark Zandi - The Big Picture

 

[carlos86]

You guys are hoping for a recession so that Trump loses 2020. It is really sad and pathetic.

We have been over due a recession for over 3 years. People on both side of the isle have been sounding the alarm saying that the U.S. economy isn’t on solid ground and it would only take a small crisis to push it over.

 

[NorthDallas40]

We have been over due a recession for over 3 years. People on both side of the isle have been sounding the alarm saying that the U.S. economy isn’t on solid ground and it would only take a small crisis to push it over.

We were/are not overdue for a recession. We had been overdue for a correction and the market gives us one last fall and then immediately responds by a run up to new records. Yeah I believe it was over valued thus why I moved to stable/fixed income funds as I figured there would be another pullback. But that doesn’t correlate to full blown recession.

 

[1972 Grad]

I would put more faith in Arnold Zandi's predictions. You remember the "yummies for your tummy" hot dog man at Neyland years ago?

 

[0nelilreb]

These are the times millionaires are made .

 

[Velo Vol]

A very bullish indicator.

 

[carlos86]

We were/are not overdue for a recession. We had been overdue for a correction and the market gives us one last fall and then immediately responds by a run up to new records. Yeah I believe it was over valued thus why I moved to stable/fixed income funds as I figured there would be another pullback. But that doesn’t correlate to full blown recession.

 

[NorthDallas40]

So do you actually have any thoughts of you own on topics Carlos or must you always find a tweet to convey someone else’s answer?

I stand by my original statement. Go look for another tweet now I guess.

 

[Rifleman]

This looks very bad right now, but we do have to remember that in the scare-for-clicks era economists have successfully predicted about 35 of the last 2 recessions.

 

[AM64]

Rolling my eyes here, dude.

First, oil prices are determined by the free market, not oil producers.

Second, oil prices have been in a tailspin for the last decade due to the domestic fracking boom (see chart below). This has been a godsend to both American industry and consumers.

As for "keeping jobs here", do you want to make Nike shoes for $3.00/hour? There's a reason manufacturing jobs are overseas, and it has nothing to do with oil prices.

Lastly, as Gordan Gecko said, "Greed is good". It's the basis of capitalism, and is balanced by fear. If you don't agree, you're a closet Bernie Sanders fan.


View attachment 265346

Yes, oil prices are determined by the "free" market ... assuming you consider cartels that set production quotas as "free" markets. Hint: some of us here were driving during the 70s when the "free" petroleum market decided we needed to learn a lesson, and we lived with gas rationing. Some of us definitely remember driving up to gas stations and paying 29.9 cents per gallon and seeing those prices more than double virtually overnight, and now you never know what somebody is going to charge for premium until you roll up to the pump even though regular is clearly marked. So, no, I don't hold the oil industry in high esteem, but, never - f'ng never think I am for price fixing either by cartels or by governments - that's no difference from mob rule. Except for agreeing with the need for some very limited restrictions to keep society safe and protect property rights, I'm as independent and anti-government as you are going to find. I just strongly disagree with your premise that we actually have a free economy.

 

[AM64]

This will be the second shakeout for them. Ultimately, it'll make those left standing stronger and with lower production costs.

I suppose when a commodity is priced artificially high, that a lot of producers get pretty lax about costs and reaping - or raping profits. They are going to be the first to pay the cost at time when something causes the market to take a dump. If you look at the US oil industry over the years, there have been plenty of producers who never understood the biblical thing about during the feast years preparing for the famine years - living high on the hog when the living is easy has it's drawbacks. I'll be the first to admit after having been a small business owner that US tax law doesn't do much to allow saving peak earnings so that they can be used to keep things rolling in the lean years - there's plenty of blame to spread around.

 

[Bigun]

 

[AM64]

Has Bernie ever been not angry? He's got every right to be so with respect to dim presidential nominations, though.

 

[lawgator1]

We were likely heading for recession anyway, just a mild one. Now it will be sharper, maybe last an additional quarter or two into next year.

Funny thing is, the Trumpsters who are all denying today that anything is wrong because of the virus will be the same ones in November who claim that, but for the virus, we wouldn't have had a recession at all.

 

[MontyPython]

Yes, oil prices are determined by the "free" market ... assuming you consider cartels that set production quotas as "free" markets. Hint: some of us here were driving during the 70s when the "free" petroleum market decided we needed to learn a lesson, and we lived with gas rationing. Some of us definitely remember driving up to gas stations and paying 29.9 cents per gallon and seeing those prices more than double virtually overnight, and now you never know what somebody is going to charge for premium until you roll up to the pump even though regular is clearly marked. So, no, I don't hold the oil industry in high esteem, but, never - f'ng never think I am for price fixing either by cartels or by governments - that's no difference from mob rule. Except for agreeing with the need for some very limited restrictions to keep society safe and protect property rights, I'm as independent and anti-government as you are going to find. I just strongly disagree with your premise that we actually have a free economy.

With booming US supply from fracking, OPEC has lost all semblance of a cartel with any power to fix pricing whatsoever.

Need proof? Look at the events that transpired Friday and the resulting decision by the Kingdom to RAMP UP production in the face of falling demand.

There's a reason oil crashed 30 % today. Free markets. Nuff said.

 

[VolStrom]

Yes, oil prices are determined by the "free" market ... assuming you consider cartels that set production quotas as "free" markets. Hint: some of us here were driving during the 70s when the "free" petroleum market decided we needed to learn a lesson, and we lived with gas rationing. Some of us definitely remember driving up to gas stations and paying 29.9 cents per gallon and seeing those prices more than double virtually overnight, and now you never know what somebody is going to charge for premium until you roll up to the pump even though regular is clearly marked. So, no, I don't hold the oil industry in high esteem, but, never - f'ng never think I am for price fixing either by cartels or by governments - that's no difference from mob rule. Except for agreeing with the need for some very limited restrictions to keep society safe and protect property rights, I'm as independent and anti-government as you are going to find. I just strongly disagree with your premise that we actually have a free economy.

Oh how well I remember. I started driving in the early 70's and I remembering my mother asking me to take her car to the gas station and fill it up for her. She had a big gas hog that held around 25 gallons and like most women never fueled it until it was empty. She gave me a $20 and I came back with less than $10 and she was floored.
I somewhat wish for the good old days to come around again where us boomers are accused of excess. We lived through a useless war, we suffered through gas shortages, we endured mortgage rates in the middle teens, we saw the worst stock market days in history since the great depression and the kids today call us greedy.

 

[AM64]

Closing schools has zero to do with this. Panic is to blame.

Some of it is panic perhaps, and some of it is caution. Large gatherings promote the spread of communicable disease. If people decide not to attend conferences or other optional gatherings or if sponsors cancel them, that's going to hit the travel industry. My wife is going to an upcoming nursing conference to keep her accreditation current. It's next month in Denver - she hit the button today for air travel - still over $400 which doesn't sound like a "our business is down - fire sale" kind of fare. I'd likely decide differently, but she already plunked down a significant investment in registration and hotel, so ...

 

[NorthDallas40]

With booming US supply from fracking, OPEC has lost all semblance of a cartel with any power to fix pricing whatsoever.

Need proof? Look at the events that transpired Friday and the resulting decision by the Kingdom to RAMP UP production in the face of falling demand.

There's a reason oil crashed 30 % today. Free markets. Nuff said.

LMFAO!

Premise: OPEC has no control over oil prices any longer.

Proof: In the presence of falling demand the largest member of OPEC increases production to protect market share as a defensive counter to Russian increased production in an attempt to break US shale production, both breaking previously agreed to production quantities and resulting in a collapse of prices.

So basically they no longer have control of price fixing because they presently choose to not agree on production quantities to fix the price... which means going forward they’ll never work to fix prices again?

 

[NorthDallas40]

The last time the KoSA tried to break US shale it destroyed the budgets of many OPEC members as well as Russia. But this time it’s gonna be different eh? Interesting...

 

[AM64]

You do realize the United States is the world's largest oil producer, right? There are more implications for $30 oil than just "Well, gas is cheaper."

Duh. Do you realize companies at one time based profits on actual business (you know manufacturing and sales of products) rather than what their stocks are worth on the NY lotto?

 

[AM64]

Oh how well I remember. I started driving in the early 70's and I remembering my mother asking me to take her car to the gas station and fill it up for her. She had a big gas hog that held around 25 gallons and like most women never fueled it until it was empty. She gave me a $20 and I came back with less than $10 and she was floored.
I somewhat wish for the good old days to come around again where us boomers are accused of excess. We lived through a useless war, we suffered through gas shortages, we endured mortgage rates in the middle teens, we saw the worst stock market days in history since the great depression and the kids today call us greedy.

Nothing like having a house built, moving, dealing with a new job, becoming a parent, and watching mortgage rates climb daily - already passing 10% all at the same time. By the time everything was said and done, we barely qualified for the mortgage that would have been no problem a few weeks earlier. Yeah, I think double digit mortgage rates would give newer generations a taste of reality about life and maybe even about the great boomer years.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Out of curiosity how many remember the markets from Dec 2018?

I actually thought then that we were facing contraction and that was clearly incorrect.

 

[GAVol]

We were likely heading for recession anyway, just a mild one. Now it will be sharper, maybe last an additional quarter or two into next year.

Funny thing is, the Trumpsters who are all denying today that anything is wrong because of the virus will be the same ones in November who claim that, but for the virus, we wouldn't have had a recession at all.

Whether you think freakout is justified, is anybody debating its impact on the market?

 

[Vol737]

I don’t know how this guy can say false economic boom. It’s always been known shale production is high cost and a higher break even point than traditional drilling/production. Not the first time we’ve seen shale take a hit, probably won’t be the last. His statement is disingenuous in how it leads the reader. But oh well..

 

[Orangeburst]

False economy and job growth? Jesse is a dumb ass.