Here Comes the Recession

[Vol8188]

“I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute,” Trump said during Thursday’s coronavirus press briefing. “And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets inside the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

“I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute,” Trump said during Thursday’s coronavirus press briefing. “And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets inside the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

You believe he’s telling people at home to inject themselves with bleach? Is that how you interpret that statement?

 

[1972 Grad]

You believe he’s telling people at home to inject themselves with bleach? Is that how you interpret that statement?

He will believe anything that he thinks will make Trump look bad. In his mind and based on his desires, he has just given Trump a knockout blow.

 

[Vol8188]

He will believe anything that he thinks will make Trump look bad. In his mind and based on his desires, he has just given Trump a knockout blow.

If trump told people to drink h2o and someone killed her husband with h2o2, they’d blame trump.

 

[MontyPython]

You believe he’s telling people at home to inject themselves with bleach? Is that how you interpret that statement?

Don’t Try This at Home’: Even ‘Fox & Friends’ Balked at Trump’s Advice
"Fox News anchors conceded that injecting disinfectant would be “poisonous.” But Rush Limbaugh and Breitbart defended Trump."

 

[Velo Vol]

Huh. I thought we just flip the switch and everything comes roaring back?

 

[0nelilreb]

Huh. I thought we just flip the switch and everything comes roaring back?

The switch is a lot heavier when you go to turn it back on than when you shut it off .

 

[Velo Vol]

If you want a real picker-upper, Dr. Doom does not disappoint. Sees a slow recovery and a worldwide depression in the next few years.

Nouriel Roubini Sees A Bad Recovery And A Depression (Podcast)

 

[Vol8188]

If you want a real picker-upper, Dr. Doom does not disappoint. Sees a slow recovery and a worldwide depression in the next few years.

Nouriel Roubini Sees A Bad Recovery And A Depression (Podcast)

And the left is doing their best to make the shutdown as long as possible so that the depression is as bad as possible

 

[Velo Vol]

And the left is doing their best to make the shutdown as long as possible so that the depression is as bad as possible

Doesn't have anything to do with his analysis, but OK.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Yes, of course he ignores science. Science is anathema to him. See: Ingest disinfectant / internal lighting lunacy.

And yes, obviously, I believe research could and should be better coordinated at the domestic and global level. Trump? He calls it the "Chinese virus" just to make it political and needlessly dig knives.

So where's the science behind more than 2 different genders then?

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

“I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute,” Trump said during Thursday’s coronavirus press briefing. “And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets inside the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

LOL. You are one triggered kid.

 

[Velo Vol]

Doesn't have anything to do with his analysis, but OK.

Nouriel Roubini warns of L-shaped 'Greater Depression' - BNN Bloomberg

When asked if there was anything governments can do to stop a depression, Roubini said "unfortunately, I fear there are some major trends…what I call the 10 deadly Ds that are going lead us to a deadly depression sometime later in this decade. Only a matter of when – not whether."

Roubini's deadly Ds include debt, deficits, deglobalization, currency devaluation, and disruption in the environment - all of which he argues will push the global economy into a depression.

 

[Purple Tiger]

So where's the science behind more than 2 different genders then?

The two genders thing out of nowhere is your go-to response when you have nothing to say. Anyone else notice that?

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[NorthDallas40]

The two genders thing out of nowhere is your go-to response when you have nothing to say. Anyone else notice that?

You of all people calling out a non sequitur or shot from the grassy knoll. That’s hilarious

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[vols40]

The two genders thing out of nowhere is your go-to response when you have nothing to say. Anyone else notice that?

Is it science or not?

 

[MontyPython]

Heard an economist coin the phrase the "Great Repression".

So, I've lightened up on my long stock holdings (EA, ATVI). Still holding a bit, and still long IRA (and not touching it). Both these gaming companies should continue to fair well in this environment, but I'm thinking the overall market has just about run its course on what I think is a bear market rebound.

There's a lot of optimism right now with the re-opening of many states. Unfortunately, I don't think this will translate into the huge economic "V-shaped" rebound that some predict. Instead, I think we see a slow bleed, as it sinks in that most people aren't going to return to life as "normal". This is going to drag out. I think we'll see a second wave of CV19 in the fall... Octoberish. This is going to pound the markets IMO.

I've started establishing several short positions this morning. Buying puts lightly for now. Beginning with RCL.

 

[Velo Vol]

I think we'll see a second wave of CV19 in the fall... Octoberish.

What's going to happen the next couple months?

 

[MontyPython]

What's going to happen the next couple months?

I think businesses will start to open up, but social distancing / protocol kind of kills some of them. You can't really wear a mask while eating at your favorite restaurant. Are moms going to take their kids out to the movies this summer? I doubt it. Plus again, watching a movie with no popcorn / soda?!? What's the point. I think most families are going to essentially continue to shelter at home until a treatment or vaccine comes or they truly feel safe somehow doing so.

I'm not sure that we'll see spikes or not with infections. There should be seasonality to snuff it during warmer months, but scientists seem mixed on this. I don't think there's any doubt, however, that the Fall will see the next big wave, which will include the south this time.

I don't see how the economy - largely a service-based economy - is gonna not suck. Plus, stuff like meat is going to be reduced in production. Just yesterday, my local store was out of rotisserie chickens. Bastards.

When you get savants like Elon Musk saying he's "selling everything" now, and scientists by and large stating as matter of fact that a vaccine is 12-18 months off if we're lucky, the current financial markets clearly are out of sync with this probable reality. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow, S&P, etc. at half their values by year-end.

 

[37L1]

I think businesses will start to open up, but social distancing / protocol kind of kills some of them. You can't really wear a mask while eating at your favorite restaurant. Are moms going to take their kids out to the movies this summer? I doubt it. Plus again, watching a movie with no popcorn / soda?!? What's the point. I think most families are going to essentially continue to shelter at home until a treatment or vaccine comes or they truly feel safe somehow doing so.

I'm not sure that we'll see spikes or not with infections. There should be seasonality to snuff it during warmer months, but scientists seem mixed on this. I don't think there's any doubt, however, that the Fall will see the next big wave, which will include the south this time.

I don't see how the economy - largely a service-based economy - is gonna not suck. Plus, stuff like meat is going to be reduced in production. Just yesterday, my local store was out of rotisserie chickens. Bastards.

When you get savants like Elon Musk saying he's "selling everything" now, and scientists by and large stating as matter of fact that a vaccine is 12-18 months off if we're lucky, the current financial markets clearly are out of synch with this probable reality. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow, S&P, etc. at half their values by year-end.

Some how, some way, I managed to eat at my favorite restaurant yesterday. So did a lot of other people.

Been nice knowing y'all. . . .

 

[Velo Vol]

I was with you until here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow, S&P, etc. at half their values by year-end.

Then again . . .

 

[MontyPython]

Some how, some way, I managed to eat at my favorite restaurant yesterday. So did a lot of other people.

Been nice knowing y'all. . . .

Cool. Where'd ya go? Did they take your temperature on entry? Crowded? How close together were the tables positioned? How would you describe the utilization of the eating floor space? Say... 25% of normal capacity?

 

[37L1]

Cool. Where'd ya go? Did they take your temperature on entry? Crowded? How close together were the tables positioned? How would you describe the utilization of the eating floor space? Say... 25% of normal capacity?

No one took temperatures. They don't do that when you buy groceries do they? In fact, I am not aware of anywhere I've been since this fiasco started, of anyone taking my temperature.

Los Amigos, Maryville.

They kept the 6' distancing by placing tables with no chairs between those that can be occupied. No menus or condiments on the tables. Just like Kroger/WalMart/Costco, all employees were wearing face masks and gloves. The take out/pay area had a plastic shield between the register and the customer.

The food and service, despite the new obstacles, were excellent. Plus it felt good to support our local small business and return to having a life beyond lock down.

 

[MontyPython]

No one took temperatures. They don't do that when you buy groceries do they? In fact, I am not aware of anywhere I've been since this fiasco started, of anyone taking my temperature.

Los Amigos, Maryville.

They kept the 6' distancing by placing tables with no chairs between those that can be occupied. No menus or condiments on the tables. Just like Kroger/WalMart/Costco, all employees were wearing face masks and gloves. The take out/pay area had a plastic shield between the register and the customer.

The food and service, despite the new obstacles, were excellent. Plus it felt good to support our local small business and return to having a life beyond lock down.

Cool. Well, glad you had a good time. We'll see if this can be maintained... time will tell. But, as far as the economy goes, my point is that there are very few restaurants - especially the larger ones - that could possibly turn a profit with only 25% of maximum capacity utilization allowed (a la Florida). This alone dooms the entire industry in the near term IMO.