Here Comes the Recession

#103
#103
InVOLuntary said:
I don't know how many people actually work in the real world. All I can do is speak for myself. The economy is working exactly as it should. Unemployment is so low anyone that really wants to work has a job. Just 2-3 years ago I could find carpenters, decent carpenters for $16/hr, easily. I get laughed at if I offer $16/hr. Same with electricians, welders, HVAC techs, virtually anyone with the slightest amount of skill. It's called supply and demand. The demand is currently greater than the supply driving up labor cost. My labor costs have jumped by at least 20-30% in the last two years.
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Same with drivers and equipment operators.
 
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#105
#105
tvolsfan said:
I think Sanders will win, and hopefully Bloomberg continues his anti-Trump campaign.
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Too much of anything and people start tuning out , you guys should know this by now . You’ve had 4 years to learn that lesson . Bloomberg’s ads has already started to annoy people , he went way overboard and saturated everything .
 
#106
#106
LouderVol said:
It's going to self correct. Prices get so high people stop buying because they cant afford, and then value drops. My firm has seen a number of projects dry up because of labor costs.

It's still a bit of a foreign concept to me.
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It's the spikes that hurt. Gradual increases people don't notice. We're in a labor shortage right now.
 
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#111
#111
MontyPython said:
The economic expansion may be coming to an end, if the bond market tea leaves are correct. Last summer, For the first time since the financial crisis, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below the two-year yield, a pricing anomaly known as a “yield curve inversion”. Only once since 1950 has the yield difference become negative and a recession has NOT shortly ensued.

Obviously, the economy is really the only thing propping up Trump for potential re-election this Fall. If the economic dominoes tumble, buh bye.

If it's gonna happen, hopefully it will be short and not too severe. It's been a huge positive run since the crash of 2008/9.

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It should be easy for everyone to see that we are in an overheated economy right now. A significant sign of an overheated economy is an unemployment rate that is below the normal rate for a country. Ideally, full employment should be great news, but full employment also means higher inflation since everyone who needs a job, has a job, with money to spend. In every recession since World War II, the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the years immediately preceding the period in question. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate has varied between 4.7% and 6.3% since World War II. The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%. There are also indicators of abnormally high levels of consumer confidence right now and a stock market (asset) bubble. Throw in the compounding problem of government deficit spending, and there will be a recession. It's just a matter of when... it won't be tangible to the public for about two years, in my opinion, but it's going to happen. Every indicator is there.
 
#112
#112
hog88 said:
I can hire kids out of college with geology and soil science degrees and train them to be adequate machine operators cheaper than I can find an experienced one.
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That experience and know how will cost you right now . 😊
 
#114
#114
BowlBrother85 said:
It should be easy for everyone to see that we are in an overheated economy right now. A significant sign of an overheated economy is an unemployment rate that is below the normal rate for a country. Ideally, full employment should be great news, but full employment also means higher inflation since everyone who needs a job, has a job, with money to spend. In every recession since World War II, the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the years immediately preceding the period in question. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate has varied between 4.7% and 6.3% since World War II. The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%. There are also indicators of abnormally high levels of consumer confidence right now and a stock market (asset) bubble. Throw in the compounding problem of government deficit spending, and there will be a recession. It's just a matter of when... it won't be tangible to the public for about two years, in my opinion, but it's going to happen. Every indicator is there.
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Would you also agree that the birthrate in this country is way down from the "traditional rate" since WWII?
 
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#115
#115
BowlBrother85 said:
It should be easy for everyone to see that we are in an overheated economy right now. A significant sign of an overheated economy is an unemployment rate that is below the normal rate for a country. Ideally, full employment should be great news, but full employment also means higher inflation since everyone who needs a job, has a job, with money to spend. In every recession since World War II, the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the years immediately preceding the period in question. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate has varied between 4.7% and 6.3% since World War II. The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%. There are also indicators of abnormally high levels of consumer confidence right now and a stock market (asset) bubble. Throw in the compounding problem of government deficit spending, and there will be a recession. It's just a matter of when... it won't be tangible to the public for about two years, in my opinion, but it's going to happen. Every indicator is there.
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Good points. Trump threw gas on the fire by giving himself and fellow million/billion aires a tax cut. During such economic expansion we should be paying down / reducing our national debt, yet Trump runs the largest budget deficit in history.

Elect a debt king / go in debt / declare bankruptcy.

Yeah, sounds about right. Thanks, Donald.
 
#116
#116
LouderVol said:
I wished we had an impartial grading system for arguments here. It would be interesting to track.

Maybe the mods can figure something out. And just for the PF. And just the real debates. Maybe get some third party reviewers. We are big enough to be mentioned in that one political article, we should be big enough to draw in some real brain power. Maybe the mods suggest names and we vote. Or we suggest names and they vote.

Freak can sell it as a anonymous online reality show.
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What is this mention in a political article???
 
#117
#117
MontyPython said:
Good points. Trump threw gas on the fire by giving himself and fellow million/billion aires a tax cut. During such economic expansion we should be paying down / reducing our national debt, yet Trump runs the largest budget deficit in history.

Elect a debt king / go in debt / declare bankruptcy.

Yeah, sounds about right. Thanks, Donald.
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You do realize the lefts leading candidates have no plans to pay down any debt besides forgiving school and medical debts right ? Klobuchar is the only one that said she would have a dedicated national debt relief fund ( whatever that means ) Pete made a statement saying “Dems should jump feet first into the issue “ , EW said some BS about how here polices will pay down the debt ( not a soul believes her crap ) . So if the Dems win 2020 this post will not age well for you .
 
#118
#118
0nelilreb said:
You do realize the lefts leading candidates have no plans to pay down any debt besides forgiving school and medical debts right ? Klobuchar is the only one that said she would have a dedicated national debt relief fund ( whatever that means ) Pete made a statement saying “Dems should jump feet first into the issue “ , EW said some BS about how here polices will pay down the debt ( not a soul believes her crap ) . So if the Dems win 2020 this post will not age well for you .
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When I was a Republican, one of the GOP's primary tenets was conservative fiscal policy. With Trump's absconding the party, it's drunken sailors at the t*tty bar. Plus you can grab em by the p*ssy. No big whoop.
 
#121
#121
MontyPython said:
When I was a Republican, one of the GOP's primary tenets was conservative fiscal policy. With Trump's absconding the party, it's drunken sailors at the t*tty bar. Plus you can grab em by the p*ssy. No big whoop.
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How many years out of 50 did the GOP actually take any action on that tenent? We're not more in debt solely because of Trump. We're in debt because our "leaders" buy votes from us with our grandchildren's money.
 
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#122
#122
MontyPython said:
When I was a Republican, one of the GOP's primary tenets was conservative fiscal policy. With Trump's absconding the party, it's drunken sailors at the t*tty bar. Plus you can grab em by the p*ssy. No big whoop.
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It was all a lie . Pandering politicians . Now you have the choice between ..spend like drunken sailors or the alternative , spend until there’s nothing left to spend , because the money moved out of the country party. You are also right , grabbing them by the P is irrelevant. Unless you want to start stacking morals . Nobody wants to do that . I’ll take one P grab , over one babies life , every day of the week and never look back or be ashamed of that decision .
 
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#123
#123
McDad said:
How many years out of 50 did the GOP actually take any action on that tenent? We're not more in debt solely because of Trump. We're in debt because our "leaders" buy votes from us with our grandchildren's money.
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One of the sagest things I've read here in awhile.
 
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#124
#124
0nelilreb said:
It was all a lie . Pandering politicians . Now you have the choice between ..spend like drunken sailors or the alternative , spend until there’s nothing left to spend , because the money moved out of the country party. You are also right , grabbing them by the P is irrelevant. Unless you want to start stacking morals . Nobody wants to do that . I’ll take one P grab , over one babies life , every day of the week and never look back or be ashamed of that decision .
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Look I'd never vote for Sanders. One if the moderates - I'm thinking Joe - will be the nominee. I think he'd continue Obama's trajectory which is probably better than Trump's.
 
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