Home/Away win and losses so far...

#30
#30
After looking at rpiforecast with conference tournaments included, it looks like 20 is actually the magic number of wins UT needs to make the tournament. I'm not usually big on a specific number of wins, but if you look at the projections, every scenario with 19 or fewer wins (with the lone exception of 19-15, the unlikely scenario where UT loses all remaining regular season games and wins the SEC tournament) results in a rpi of 58.6 or worse, which will be very likely to miss the cut.

Every scenario where the team has 20 or more wins results in a rpi of 50.2 or better, which should be in the field.

5-0 through the end of the season, and I think they dance even with a first round loss in the SEC tournament. 4-1, which I think is likely, puts them in a place where they need a first round win or they are likely to miss out. Anything worse than 4-1 through the rest of the regular season will put them in a very difficult position.
 
#31
#31
I really feel good about 5-0.

Only games I see us having a chance at losing are @Auburn and Missouri at home.

But think we are very well equipped to handle both.
 
#32
#32
Ericvol2096 said:
I really feel good about 5-0.

Only games I see us having a chance at losing are @Auburn and Missouri at home.

But think we are very well equipped to handle both.
Click to expand...

I want to see it happen, but the past is not encouraging. They shouldn't lose to any of the teams left on the schedule, but that didn't stop them in recent years.

Both of the last two years, the team has had a big run at the end of the year (and beaten some really good teams in doing so), but they have dropped at least one head-scratching loss in each of those major runs (Bama in 2012, UGA last year). Further, they have had a nail-biting OT road win in each of those runs (LSU in 2012, A&M in 4OT last year). And both times they have gone into the SEC tournament needing a win against a decent team. Both times, they lost to the first decent team in they played in the SEC tourney (Ole Miss - first game 2012, Bama - second game 2013).

I think that they go 4-1 through the last 5 of the season. I think that they win in OT on the road against A&M or Auburn and lose to the other one. I do think, just because they haven't had a good win recently and they are capable, that they will beat Mizzou at home.

Unfortunately, this leaves them squarely on the bubble and needing a win in the SEC tournament to get into the big dance. I think it's about equally likely that they go 0-1 to miss their shot or 1-1 to get in.

I am hoping for 5-0 and a SEC tournament victory to erase all doubt, but I am expecting a nervous selection and an 11 seed.
 
#33
#33
First&Tenn said:
After looking at rpiforecast with conference tournaments included, it looks like 20 is actually the magic number of wins UT needs to make the tournament. I'm not usually big on a specific number of wins, but if you look at the projections, every scenario with 19 or fewer wins (with the lone exception of 19-15, the unlikely scenario where UT loses all remaining regular season games and wins the SEC tournament) results in a rpi of 58.6 or worse, which will be very likely to miss the cut.

Every scenario where the team has 20 or more wins results in a rpi of 50.2 or better, which should be in the field.

5-0 through the end of the season, and I think they dance even with a first round loss in the SEC tournament. 4-1, which I think is likely, puts them in a place where they need a first round win or they are likely to miss out. Anything worse than 4-1 through the rest of the regular season will put them in a very difficult position.
Click to expand...

Solid post, and I'm in complete agreement with you.

Be nice to see them win out and win 2 games in the SECT to get that RPI up to around 27, would be in line for about a 7/8 seed IMO.
 
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