How 5-star recruits affect team rankings

#1
ShoalCreekVol

ShoalCreekVol

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#1
Bored with the off-season, so I'm over-analyzing things for sport. Here goes:

How do 5-star recruits affect the overall team rankings?

Specifically interested now b/c we have a great recruiting class early, but only 2 of 14 5-stars have committed so we don't know how we'll end up a few months from now.

FYI - Used Rivals data over the last 5 years, and yes I realize that data is heavily manipulated by Rivals, but this is just analysis, not science.

Top 10 recruiting class with NO 5-Star Players:
2009: ZERO
2010: One (#7)
2011: ZERO
2012: One (#10)
2013: One (#8)

Top 10 recruiting class with only ONE 5-star player:
2009 - 3
2010 - 4
2011 - 3
2012 - ZERO
2013 - 1

Top 5 recruiting class with only ONE 5-star player:
2009 - ZERO
2010 - 1 (#5)
2011 - 2 (#3 & 4)
2012 - ZERO
2013 - 1 (#5)

Top-5 Recruiting Classes:
  • 0% have no 5-star players
  • 8% have only one 5-star player
  • 92% have 2 or more 5-star players

Top-10 Recruiting Classes:
  • 6% have no 5-star players
  • 22% have only one 5-star player
  • 72% have 2 or more 5-star players

Without ANY 5-stars: It appears to be practically impossible to put together a top-5 team ranking (hasn't happened in last 5 years), and only rarely has a top-10 recruiting class been put together.

With only ONE 5-star: Your odds of a top-5 ranking are still slim at 8%. Hard to believe signing one 5-star only increases your odds of a top-5 class by 8%. There has not been a #1 or #2 class with only one 5-star.

With TWO OR MORE 5-stars: You’re almost a lock for a top-10 class, odds are very high of a top-5 class.

12 of the current 14 5-star rated players are still uncommitted, so there is time for someone to come roaring to the front of the pack and overtake everyone who is up there now. I noticed on the player pages that we are not listed as “High Interest” on any 5-stars, and only 5 of the uncommitted 12 have us as the generic “Medium Interest” with us just being one team among several on their list. This concerns me a bit.

That said, those of you who follow recruiting closely please fill us in on which 5-stars we have a legitimate shot at. I realize that the coaches are not / should not be looking at star ratings, but it does seem to be a pretty decent indicator for fans to identify elite prospects (it just doesn’t really seem to tell how that prospect ranks among the other elites very reliably IMO).

Thanks & GBO
 
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#3
#3
Going back to 2009-2011, what were those teams' season records...you know, where it matters.
 
#4
#4
Amazing_street_magic.gif
 
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#5
#5
How do these recruiting services determine how many 5 stars there will be? Is it 14 every year or what?

I do know that they re-evaluate the players and the rankings change every once in a while, so who knows whether or not they will add more or if they will move some 4 stars up, or 5 stars down.

These recruiting services are all different it seems. I'm starting to like the 247 recruiting because it does a composite ranking of all of the sites.

Don't hate me for saying that:cool:
 
#6
#6
The number of 5 stars will grow as the recruiting season goes on. There is a very good chance that Jalen Hurd will be a 5*. Also, Todd Kelly Jr has a shot if his ranking goes up some. Not sure how many 5*s Rivals usually has when their final rankings come out, but I'm thinking its 25-30.
 
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#7
#7
So Bama is just hanging back right now and will probably end up with about 8 of them. They probably have to get all the money straight first before they sign.
 
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#8
#8
Momma Croom needs to get on Lorenzo Carter!! Also, Josh Malone will likely be a 5* so we got a chance for the top spot.
 
#9
#9
I'm always amazed at the people who see something they don't like but can't move on without showing their rear end.

Back to the question, do any of you know which 5-stars we have are pursuing, and what the likelihood is of us getting them?
 
#10
#10
#1VolStar said:
Momma Croom needs to get on Lorenzo Carter!! Also, Josh Malone will likely be a 5* so we got a chance for the top spot.
Click to expand...

Malone would be a great pickup, but IDK if he'll ever make it to 5* or not. Let's hope so.

Carter is one of the 5 that have us on the list, but not above or below anyone else (out of about 25 offers).
 
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#13
#13
there are a few issues with this - 1 is that there will be a bout 30+ 5stars on rivals once it is all said and done so you don't know who that will be but i would say look at the current top 30 players as a guide - it will change who is in there but at least 30 or so should make the cut as a 5 star

the other problem is you are looking at who rivals says there is interest in - that is very unreliable
 
#15
#15
ShoalCreekVol said:
I'm always amazed at the people who see something they don't like but can't move on without showing their rear end.

Back to the question, do any of you know which 5-stars we have are pursuing, and what the likelihood is of us getting them?
Click to expand...

Rivals had 33 5 stars last year...
 
#16
#16
ShoalCreekVol said:
Malone would be a great pickup, but IDK if he'll ever make it to 5* or not. Let's hope so.

Carter is one of the 5 that have us on the list, but not above or below anyone else (out of about 25 offers).
Click to expand...

He's been killing it in camps and is rated higher than kitt right now. Also, if we get some of Carter's teammates to commit he might seriously start thinking about jumping on board. We are gonna need some top talent on the d-line if we are gonna compete for championships anytime soon.
 
#17
#17
The Orange Pants said:
So there's a correlation between signing highly touted players and having a highly rated class? Groundbreaking.
Click to expand...

Not exactly, since 4-star players are highly touted and apparently signing a bunch of them won't historically get you in the top five.

I think it's an intriguing and well-thought-out post. Thanks OP.
 
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#18
#18
I like the analysis but vol nation won't because they r n love with 3 stars that won't to wear the orange...lol

Also its funny how cbj is chasing the 4 and 5 stars
N not the 3 stars.. I think he feels differently than volnation..
 
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#19
#19
92volalum said:
I like the analysis but vol nation won't because they r n love with 3 stars that won't to wear the orange...lol

Also its funny how cbj is chasing the 4 and 5 stars
N not the 3 stars.. I think he feels differently than volnation..
Click to expand...

92 vol alum? Any self respecting college graduate would know the difference between want and won't. This isn't a Florida board. C'mon now.
 
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#23
#23
Boca Vol said:
What does it matter?

Once they get on campus what difference does it make whether they're a 4 or 5 star? It won't make any difference come Sept. 2014.
Click to expand...

But it's a good indication we're on the right track. It gives us something to look forward to and be proud of and brag about
 
#24
#24
VolForLife83 said:
But it's a good indication we're on the right track. It gives us something to look forward to and be proud of and brag about
Click to expand...

I would rather brag about results on the field, not whether Kelly and Hurd are 4 or 5 stars. I think these 2 are very good players for UT's class regardless of their * ranking.
 
#25
#25
ShoalCreekVol said:
Bored with the off-season, so I'm over-analyzing things for sport. Here goes:

How do 5-star recruits affect the overall team rankings?

Specifically interested now b/c we have a great recruiting class early, but only 2 of 14 5-stars have committed so we don't know how we'll end up a few months from now.

FYI - Used Rivals data over the last 5 years, and yes I realize that data is heavily manipulated by Rivals, but this is just analysis, not science.

Top 10 recruiting class with NO 5-Star Players:
2009: ZERO
2010: One (#7)
2011: ZERO
2012: One (#10)
2013: One (#8)

Top 10 recruiting class with only ONE 5-star player:
2009 - 3
2010 - 4
2011 - 3
2012 - ZERO
2013 - 1

Top 5 recruiting class with only ONE 5-star player:
2009 - ZERO
2010 - 1 (#5)
2011 - 2 (#3 & 4)
2012 - ZERO
2013 - 1 (#5)

Top-5 Recruiting Classes:
  • 0% have no 5-star players
  • 8% have only one 5-star player
  • 92% have 2 or more 5-star players

Top-10 Recruiting Classes:
  • 6% have no 5-star players
  • 22% have only one 5-star player
  • 72% have 2 or more 5-star players

Without ANY 5-stars: It appears to be practically impossible to put together a top-5 team ranking (hasn't happened in last 5 years), and only rarely has a top-10 recruiting class been put together.

With only ONE 5-star: Your odds of a top-5 ranking are still slim at 8%. Hard to believe signing one 5-star only increases your odds of a top-5 class by 8%. There has not been a #1 or #2 class with only one 5-star.

With TWO OR MORE 5-stars: You’re almost a lock for a top-10 class, odds are very high of a top-5 class.

12 of the current 14 5-star rated players are still uncommitted, so there is time for someone to come roaring to the front of the pack and overtake everyone who is up there now. I noticed on the player pages that we are not listed as “High Interest” on any 5-stars, and only 5 of the uncommitted 12 have us as the generic “Medium Interest” with us just being one team among several on their list. This concerns me a bit.

That said, those of you who follow recruiting closely please fill us in on which 5-stars we have a legitimate shot at. I realize that the coaches are not / should not be looking at star ratings, but it does seem to be a pretty decent indicator for fans to identify elite prospects (it just doesn’t really seem to tell how that prospect ranks among the other elites very reliably IMO).

Thanks & GBO
Click to expand...

Very nice, thanks for pulling this information together and sharing. Hopefully we sign another Jalen Hurd
 
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