How do you see the SEC in 5 years?

#26
#26
in 5 years I think that the conference champion will likely have 2 losses. The SEC is going to be knocking each other all over the place.

I think that Bama learned post Bear and Stallings and that they throw money at the best coach in football. They will replace Saban with a 15 million dollar coach. Don't know who, but one of the top guys around.

Teams in the mix could include Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Auburn. IMO, there will not be one dominant team as we have seen with Bama and appears with Georgia. Things will start to even out. The portal and NIL will become much more of a factor with things and the schools I named are schools that are not afraid to spend money for success. Rosters will start to turn over even more frequently than they have. In fact, that unknown makes it almost impossible to predict 5 years out.

Take a look at SEC schools attrition from the 2021 signing classes. This was LESS than 2 years ago. First is number signed, 2nd is number no longer there. This number will continue to rise between now and September.

Bama - 27/8
Arky - 22/9
Auburn - 19/11
Florida - 22/9
UGA - 20/1
UK - 18/4
LSU - 23/8
ole Miss - 25/5
MSU - 23/8
Mizzou - 23/10
USC - 14/4
UT - 17/9
A&M - 23/9
VU - 23/5
 
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#28
#28
VFL-82-JP said:
Five years from now:

  • No divisions. We're all in one big pool.
  • Top 2 teams year in and year out are Tennessee and Georgia. Most years, at least one of them--and sometimes both--get to Atlanta in December.
  • Oklahoma joins LSU and A&M (who have canned Fisher and spent $18m/year on an unproven--but so far decent--new coach) in the second tier. When UGa or the Vols don't get to Atlanta, it's usually one of these three.
  • Bama is feverishly going through coaches in hopes of quickly finding a new Saban (who retired in 2024 after losing to the Vols for a third year in a row). They won't for a while. In the meantime, they're doing okay, getting 9 or 10 wins each season, but the fan base are apoplectic. Texas is doing just about as well.
  • Florida is on hard times. The salad days might be permanently over for them. Back to middle of the pack, with Arkansas, Ole Miss, Auburn, and Miss State.
  • Mizzou, Vandy, South Carolina, and Kentucky are the doormats. From time to time USCe or the Wildcats have an 8-win season and declare themselves "back," but it's really just a blip.
That's how I think it will probably be in five years. And in ten years, as well.

Go Vols!
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Wow, you Don’t think much of the
Texas Longhorns.
 
#32
#32
VOLnMiami said:
Oklahoma went 6-7 this year...The beginning of the end for those guys...It is about to get much worse...Venables is not the answer.
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So first year head coach on a team that was gifted and left with almost no good defensive players and you are already saying Venables isn’t the guy? So a first time head coach doesn’t even get 1 year now?
 
#33
#33
If we still have a SEC East in 5 years not much will change. UGA will likely still be top of the heap and we will likely be second.
 
#35
#35
mtvols said:
How do you see the SEC in 5 years? What happens when Oklahoma and Texas enters the conference? Who is the dominant team? Who is in the Top tier of teams? What teams are better than they are now or which are worse? What coaches (today) are no longer coaching in the conference?

I think once Oklahoma and Texas enter the conference, the SEC will do away with the East/West divisions and we will begin playing 9 conference games. I believe Georgia will still be the dominant team but likely Saban would have retired and Alabama will fall off quite a bit.

I could see LSU, Oklahoma, and Tennessee joining Georgia in the Top tier of the conference. Two SEC teams likely make the new 12 team playoffs every year. Alabama likely falls into the second tier with Auburn, Texas, and maybe Florida. I don’t think Jimbo Fisher will be at aTm and Napier may not be at Florida either. Auburn likely improves with Freeze and closes the gap with Alabama. The rest of the conference teams likely stay the same as today - mediorce.

What does everyone else think the SEC looks like in 5 years?
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I agree with a lot of this, but I don’t think the Sooners are going to be particularly any good and likely won’t be for quite some time.
 
#36
#36
BigOrangeTrain said:
So first year head coach on a team that was gifted and left with almost no good defensive players and you are already saying Venables isn’t the guy? So a first time head coach doesn’t even get 1 year now?
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Not at all but I do not like his coaching style and just do not feel he will last there very long..Just my opinion and you don't have to agree with it.
 
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#37
#37
In 5 years, it will really depend on who has the best coaches and consistently high level recruiting just like it always has been.

- Alabama - will always contend even when Saban retires. They can hire anyone, recruit anyone and tradition is powerful.
- Georgia - using the Saban blueprint to a tee. Has massive recruiting advantages, and very good coaching….unfortunately.
- LSU - Kelly is a fake but he can coach and they will always have premier athletes. Will benefit from expanded access in Texas.
- Tennessee - Heupel is taking this style to another level but we still have to prove it over multiple years. It is a unique offense to present to recruits. We have resources, emerging talent pool in-state and can draw players nationally.
- Oklahoma - they can adjust to the SEC level but Venables better prove he is worth the contract next year or that adjustment is going to take awhile and will require an immediate coaching search. Has the talent and can recruit nationally.
- Florida - similar to LSU with respect to access to premier athletes but the difference is that LSU competes with few for in-state talent, except the elite 5 stars. FSU is emerging and Miami has deep pockets via NIL. And everyone around the nation poaches in Florida. Ultimately it is all about the coach at Florida and he ain’t it. I could see Kiffin at Florida one day.
- Texas A&M - should always be good but they are an insecure program and will be moreso once Texas joins the league. Good at times and will always have a solid home field advantage.
- Texas - I’m less convinced they will fit as well as Oklahoma in the SEC. Joining the league may very well open up the state of Texas recruiting for the rest of the conference which may hurt them and A&M. Will be inconsistent much like Auburn. Competition level in SEC weekly is much greater than Big 12. They often play to the level of their competition. That gets you upset in the SEC.
- Auburn - they have a good coach now but this program is a bit schizophrenic. Very unpredictable almost every year. Type of program that can beat anyone or lose to anyone on a weekly basis.
- Ole Miss - Kiffin will get bored and leave them eventually. They have peaked and will slide backwards especially if we continue to keep better Memphis players in state. I could see them become a feeder program for others with transfer portal.
- Arkansas - may benefit from Texas entry into the league from a recruiting standpoint. A committed fan base that needs stability with coaching and a style of play that other teams have a hard time preparing for in a week.
- South Carolina - their success really depends on Clemson’s success. If they can keep the top notch players in state and away from Clemson they can be competitive occasionally.
- Missouri - much like Arkansas may benefit somewhat with better recruiting in Texas. Also has solid football talent in St. Louis but they often don’t take advantage of this and lose best players to football powers. Probably will rotate coaching staffs every 5 years or so.
- Miss St. - like the program but they will always be outmanned by SEC heavy weights.
- Kentucky - I think they are going to slide to back of the pack and will be a feeder team for other SEC teams who take their better players in transfer portal.
- Vandy - has to establish a consistent identity with a head coach who can market the program which is very difficult to do. Bottom dwellers most of the time. Another feeder team to others with transfer portal.
 
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#38
#38
In five years I see a cool playoff.
I see 4-SEC schools in it
I see 3 BiGTen teams in it
I see 1 ACC school
I see 1 Big12 school
I see 1 pac 12 school
I see 1 group of five in it
Notre Dame will get 1 in if they have enough wins. If not slot will most likely be filled by next highest BiGTen or SEC team .
 
#40
#40
Namorto1 said:
In 5 years, it will really depend on who has the best coaches and consistently high level recruiting just like it always has been.

- Alabama - will always contend even when Saban retires. They can hire anyone, recruit anyone and tradition is powerful.
- Georgia - using the Saban blueprint to a tee. Has massive recruiting advantages, and very good coaching….unfortunately.
- LSU - Kelly is a fake but he can coach and they will always have premier athletes. Will benefit from expanded access in Texas.
- Tennessee - Heupel is taking this style to another level but we still have to prove it over multiple years. It is a unique offense to present to recruits. We have resources, emerging talent pool in-state and can draw players nationally.
- Oklahoma - they can adjust to the SEC level but Venables better prove he is worth the contract next year or that adjustment is going to take awhile and will require an immediate coaching search. Has the talent and can recruit nationally.
- Florida - similar to LSU with respect to access to premier athletes but the difference is that LSU competes with few for in-state talent, except the elite 5 stars. FSU is emerging and Miami has deep pockets via NIL. And everyone around the nation poaches in Florida. Ultimately it is all about the coach at Florida and he ain’t it. I could see Kiffin at Florida one day.
- Texas A&M - should always be good but they are an insecure program and will be moreso once Texas joins the league. Good at times and will always have a solid home field advantage.
- Texas - I’m less convinced they will fit as well as Oklahoma in the SEC. Joining the league may very well open up the state of Texas recruiting for the rest of the conference which may hurt them and A&M. Will be inconsistent much like Auburn. Competition level in SEC weekly is much greater than Big 12. They often play to the level of their competition. That gets you upset in the SEC.
- Auburn - they have a good coach now but this program is a bit schizophrenic. Very unpredictable almost every year. Type of program that can beat anyone or lose to anyone on a weekly basis.
- Ole Miss - Kiffin will get bored and leave them eventually. They have peaked and will slide backwards especially if we continue to keep better Memphis players in state. I could see them become a feeder program for others with transfer portal.
- Arkansas - may benefit from Texas entry into the league from a recruiting standpoint. A committed fan base that needs stability with coaching and a style of play that other teams have a hard time preparing for in a week.
- South Carolina - their success really depends on Clemson’s success. If they can keep the top notch players in state and away from Clemson they can be competitive occasionally.
- Missouri - much like Arkansas may benefit somewhat with better recruiting in Texas. Also has solid football talent in St. Louis but they often don’t take advantage of this and lose best players to football powers. Probably will rotate coaching staffs every 5 years or so.
- Miss St. - like the program but they will always be outmanned by SEC heavy weights.
- Kentucky - I think they are going to slide to back of the pack and will be a feeder team for other SEC teams who take their better players in transfer portal.
- Vandy - has to establish a consistent identity with a head coach who can market the program which is very difficult to do. Bottom dwellers most of the time. Another feeder team to others with transfer portal.
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Agree with everything in this post. All I’ll say is I am so glad we have a good coach now. I honestly feared we were going to be mired in mediocrity forever if we didn’t nail this hire heading into yet another SEC expansion. Now I think we are poised to really cement our position in the top 5 of the conference because I don’t think Texas or Oklahoma have good coaches. And yeah, I think the programs that are going to have a lot of their best players picked off by the top schools are going to be Vandy, Missouri, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss State, and Arkansas. These are the schools clearly in the bottom rung when it comes to fan base, facilities, recruiting and tradition. And we probably would’ve joined them if we didn’t finally hire a good coach.
 
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#45
#45
Littered with struggling former SWC teams, ready to get back across the Mississippi River. Cut'em loose.
 
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#46
#46
I'm an old man. I've walked Big Orange Country long enough to witness several decades of the ebbs & flows of SEC football power.

Two things have been constant over the past 50+ years of UT/SEC fandom.

(1.) Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida have the most resources and one (or more) of these five will be legitimate national championship contenders, (regardless of the format used to determine a champion.) The addition of Texas and Oklahoma won't change that. (Much like the additions of Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M & Missouri did not change it.)

(2.) The quality of leadership in the athletic departments of those six schools determines decades-worth of "pecking order" among them.

To see what's coming, go back and study your SEC football history.

Alabama was so-so until somebody there had the wherewithal to hire the Bear and let him do his thing. Georgia makes Vince Dooley their head man and here come the dogs. After Doug Dickey left UT for Florida, Alabama & Bryant had their way with the SEC and consistently represented the south at the top of the polls, with LSU & Georgia nipping at their heels.

UT brings back Johnny Majors in 1977. Auburn hires Pat Dye shortly after. With the arrival of those two tireless recruiters, southern kids that could play some football started visiting Knoxville & Auburn, along with Tuscaloosa & Athens.

By 1983, the Tide & Dogs were ebbing, while the Tigers & Vols were flowing.

Then comes Steve Spurrier. Suddenly the Gators are a national power and UT, Bama, Georgia & Auburn can't just take what they want from the ranks of Florida high schools.

Over the ensuing years, Gene Stallings reestablishes Alabama as a force. Fulmer extends the Johnny Majors era at UT. The Ol' Ball Coach is funnin and gunnin. Georgia is running through the like of Ray Goff, Jim Donnen and Mark Richt. LSU and Auburn head into the wilderness of mediocrity.

THEN... Saban arrives in LSU and wins a natty. Spurrier leaves Florida for the NFL. Likewise, Saban leaves LSU, only to resurface at Bama. UT fires Fulmer. We SEC fans find ourselves in a circumstance where grass-eating Les Miles at LSU is the closest thing to an elite coach, other than "Saint Nick."

All that to say... "it's resources and leadership among the six."

Alabama will ebb, as Nick Sabans stranglehold on recruiting is loosened by Josh Heupel, Bryan Kelly, Lane Kiffin, Hugh Freeze and Kirby Smart. Georgia will continue to be among the top dogs, as long as Kirby Smart is there. Tennessee has already re-emerged and will be in the expanded playoff picture on a perennial basis, under Josh Heupel. Bryan Kelly can recruit and coach at the highest level, so LSU will be consistently in the hunt as long as he is in Baton Rouge. Kiffin and Freeze are not emotionally stable individuals who can consistently compete for titles, but they will be spoilers until they're fired. Texas and OU have tremendous resources and CAN turn that "six" into the "eight," but they lack the leadership required to get that done within the next five years. (Even with Saban heading into the sunset.)

Five years from now, the SEC will consistently have Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and a "plus one" in the 12-team playoff. Everyone else in the league will be searching for their Danny White, Kirby, Josh or Bryan Kelly.
 
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#47
#47
WillisWG said:
To hell with expansion
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This^^^^^ Between NIL, transferring at a whim, opting out of a bowl game because it is beneath your talent and now gargantuan conferences, what's the point of even having conferences? Why not do it like the soccer leagues in Europe?

In the first year of the 12 team playoff, I will GUARANTEE you that Georgia and Bama will both have byes, because it STILL won't be merit based. It will be based on committee opinions and $$$.

Change my mind.
 
#49
#49
knox73 said:
Look - a few of us remember vividly Alabama after Bear Bryant retired. Bama will implode faster than you can imagine after Saban retires. No heir apparent will be there and whoever takes on the job had better let Sexton negotiate a rock solid agreement because it will get ugly. Mark this down and Nick's energy level is already ebbing - the man is beyond dog years. The Bama fanbase is spoiled, entitled (somewhat deservedly so with the best run in history) and old Nick will be frustrated beyond belief in 2023 when things start to sour. The man won't go 3 more years with the rise of Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and now Auburn.
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I am going to place a wager that they don't hire any coach named MIKE.......
 
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