How thin will UK be

#26
#26
DaDuRkEr said:
Even with Noels, foul trouble in late game scenarios can kill UK. It's all about matchups and UK can win the rest of their games for all I care a long as Stokes and Maymon abuse their front court. 10 fouls from banging with a walk on instead of top recruit. Their depth will come into party this season. One injury from being 3rd in the East.
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No East anymore. Just one big happy family. So are you saying 3rd overall in the SEC or actually further down than that, you think?
 
#27
#27
DaDuRkEr said:
Even with Noels, foul trouble in late game scenarios can kill UK. It's all about matchups and UK can win the rest of their games for all I care a long as Stokes and Maymon abuse their front court. 10 fouls from banging with a walk on instead of top recruit. Their depth will come into party this season. One injury from being 3rd in the East.
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Bingo. Injury or foul trouble will be much more a factor this year than in years past. Their biggest weakness is their front court, which happens to be our biggest strength. If we can play a slow game and not let their wings get out, I like our chances against them.
 
#28
#28
zansdad said:
No East anymore. Just one big happy family. So are you saying 3rd overall in the SEC or actually further down than that, you think?
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Right now I think top 4 is pretty wide open. An injury to one of UKs main guys and I could see them falling out of that top 4.
 
#29
#29
bleedingTNorange said:
Takes more than 5 guys to be succesful. Without Noel's where do you think they wind up?

Kind of a pointless discussion anyways because I'm sure he'll be eligible, but theoretically speaking.
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i agree that it does take more than 5 but that is a lot of talent in that 5 - Cal usually only plays 7 so it wouldnt hurt him as much as other coaches

i'd say they would be top 15 and likely a 3-4 seed in the tourney w/o him

w/him I think they will again compete for a final four spot and be top 5

I do think this would help UT b/c it would be much easier for us to exploit them on the inside - but teams w/o as much of an inside presence wouldnt be able to exploit his absence
 
#30
#30
lol. Yeah right. I'm more than sure Noel is going to qualify. I'm still shocked Enes Kanter was ruled inelgible.
 
#32
#32
SCvol333 said:
i agree that it does take more than 5 but that is a lot of talent in that 5 - Cal usually only plays 7 so it wouldnt hurt him as much as other coaches

i'd say they would be top 15 and likely a 3-4 seed in the tourney w/o him

w/him I think they will again compete for a final four spot and be top 5

I do think this would help UT b/c it would be much easier for us to exploit them on the inside - but teams w/o as much of an inside presence wouldnt be able to exploit his absence
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I see No way they're top 5 and a final four team this year, no way.
 
#33
#33
bleedingTNorange said:
I see No way they're top 5 and a final four team this year, no way.
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I have to take some of this on what I am hearing - my friend does a sports talk show in Lville - but I am hearing that PG will be a significant upgrade

Noel is supposed to be just as good defensively as unibrow was

so:

at the 1 they will be better

at the 2 they will be as talented if goodwin is as good as projected (Cal hasnt missed on a lot of recruits)

at the 3 there will be a defensive dropoff but Wiltjer should be able to produce offensively

at the 4 Pythress if as good as advertised will be bout equal to what they had last year

at the 5 Noel will be a wash defensively and a slight downgrade defensively

first 2 off bench would likely be Hood who was a big time recruit that hasnt seen much time yet and Cauley who is a top 40 guy

they will still be really, really talented - every year Cal has reloaded and competed for the final 4 so I see no reason it will stop this year - I hope they dont but if were projecting that is where i would project w/Noel on board
 
#34
#34
UK = at least 6 losses in conference. I know Noel is impressive but I don't think we'll see a player that changes your whole gameplan up in the paint the way Anthony Davis did for a long, long time.

Cal is either the luckiest recruiter or his staff is just that darn good at evaluating talent because I'm still waiting for a couple of these 5 stars to flame out. It seems to happen to everyone but him.
 
#35
#35
SCvol333 said:
I have to take some of this on what I am hearing - my friend does a sports talk show in Lville - but I am hearing that PG will be a significant upgrade

Noel is supposed to be just as good defensively as unibrow was

so:

at the 1 they will be better

at the 2 they will be as talented if goodwin is as good as projected (Cal hasnt missed on a lot of recruits)

at the 3 there will be a defensive dropoff but Wiltjer should be able to produce offensively

at the 4 Pythress if as good as advertised will be bout equal to what they had last year

at the 5 Noel will be a wash defensively and a slight downgrade defensively

first 2 off bench would likely be Hood who was a big time recruit that hasnt seen much time yet and Cauley who is a top 40 guy

they will still be really, really talented - every year Cal has reloaded and competed for the final 4 so I see no reason it will stop this year - I hope they dont but if were projecting that is where i would project w/Noel on board
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There's so much to risk by reloading every year. Each of his teams just seem to get it. I always thought chemistry was important in a team but Cal gets guys together and they play like they've been playing together for years. I don't understand it.

I still think the front court is going to be suspect but I never would of thought last years team would be as dominant as they were. When you look at the depth, it's remarkeable to think about the minutes these guys log and still are so productive.
 
#36
#36
Shaun1985 said:
UK = at least 6 losses in conference. I know Noel is impressive but I don't think we'll see a player that changes your whole gameplan up in the paint the way Anthony Davis did for a long, long time.

Cal is either the luckiest recruiter or his staff is just that darn good at evaluating talent because I'm still waiting for a couple of these 5 stars to flame out. It seems to happen to everyone but him.
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Also the injury bug, seems to have avoided it every year, maybe this is the year someone goes down and atleast missed some games.
 
#37
#37
SCvol333 said:
I have to take some of this on what I am hearing - my friend does a sports talk show in Lville - but I am hearing that PG will be a significant upgrade

Noel is supposed to be just as good defensively as unibrow was

so:

at the 1 they will be better

at the 2 they will be as talented if goodwin is as good as projected (Cal hasnt missed on a lot of recruits)

at the 3 there will be a defensive dropoff but Wiltjer should be able to produce offensively

at the 4 Pythress if as good as advertised will be bout equal to what they had last year

at the 5 Noel will be a wash defensively and a slight downgrade defensively

first 2 off bench would likely be Hood who was a big time recruit that hasnt seen much time yet and Cauley who is a top 40 guy

they will still be really, really talented - every year Cal has reloaded and competed for the final 4 so I see no reason it will stop this year - I hope they dont but if were projecting that is where i would project w/Noel on board
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Saying harrow is an upgrade at PG is a stretch. He's good, but he's not your typical cal PG that's known by many. IMO its a wash at PG. at the 2, it probably is a slight upgrade, but will Goodwin hit the big shots that lamb did? At the 3 I don't care if it's Wiltjer or poythress, it's a drop off. MKG was awesome ad the #2 pick, neither Wiltjer or poythress are matching that. At he 5 Noel's will not be Davis defensively, I don't are what anybody says. Davis was arguably the best freshman defensively in 50+ years? Don't see that being topped the very next year. Watch Noel's, he was in foul trouble in a all star game because he entirely too aggressive, so no defensively no where near a wash. Second, the offense is a HUGE downgrade no doubt about it.

Now...my biggest reason f all, the 6th man. You expect Cauley to come in, be a leader, hit huge shots, be a defensive stopper, and a mature player all of which miller was? Miller was arguably the MVP of thr team without miller that team losses atleast 5 games last year and doesn't make the championship game.

Will they be takented, absolutely, but they're nowhere near last years team. I've said for awhile, they're less talented overall and have less depth, and lack the upperclassmen leader they've had every year now. I expect them to be good, but 10-15 good, 5-6 SEC losses good, and 4/5 seed good.
 
#38
#38
Shaun1985 said:
There's so much to risk by reloading every year. Each of his teams just seem to get it. I always thought chemistry was important in a team but Cal gets guys together and they play like they've been playing together for years. I don't understand it.

I still think the front court is going to be suspect but I never would of thought last years team would be as dominant as they were. When you look at the depth, it's remarkeable to think about the minutes these guys log and still are so productive.
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thats a good point - it is pretty remarkable they gel like they do every year

if this happens to be an off year on that or an injury like the OP said they are vulnerable

just nothing in recent history to suggest the team won't gel, reload, and run through the SEC again with a great record
 
#39
#39
bleedingTNorange said:
Saying harrow is an upgrade at PG is a stretch. He's good, but he's not your typical cal PG that's known by many. IMO its a wash at PG. at the 2, it probably is a slight upgrade, but will Goodwin hit the big shots that lamb did? At the 3 I don't care if it's Wiltjer or poythress, it's a drop off. MKG was awesome ad the #2 pick, neither Wiltjer or poythress are matching that. At he 5 Noel's will not be Davis defensively, I don't are what anybody says. Davis was arguably the best freshman defensively in 50+ years? Don't see that being topped the very next year. Watch Noel's, he was in foul trouble in a all star game because he entirely too aggressive, so no defensively no where near a wash. Second, the offense is a HUGE downgrade no doubt about it.

Now...my biggest reason f all, the 6th man. You expect Cauley to come in, be a leader, hit huge shots, be a defensive stopper, and a mature player all of which miller was? Miller was arguably the MVP of thr team without miller that team losses atleast 5 games last year and doesn't make the championship game.

Will they be takented, absolutely, but they're nowhere near last years team. I've said for awhile, they're less talented overall and have less depth, and lack the upperclassmen leader they've had every year now. I expect them to be good, but 10-15 good, 5-6 SEC losses good, and 4/5 seed good.
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i agree with the majority of what you are saying but the simple truth is they could be a good bit worse than last year's team and still compete for a final four and win the SEC - they weren't near as talented in 2010-11 as they were last year and they still made a final four and won the SEC tourney so there is precedent for Cal taking flawed teams and still producing when he has a couple of elite guys
 
#40
#40
SCvol333 said:
i agree with the majority of what you are saying but the simple truth is they could be a good bit worse than last year's team and still compete for a final four and win the SEC - they weren't near as talented in 2010-11 as they were last year and they still made a final four and won the SEC tourney so there is precedent for Cal taking flawed teams and still producing when he has a couple of elite guys
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This is his thinnest and least talented overall team since being at UK, and maybe most importantly his least experienced team. How will all of that combined workout?
 
#41
#41
SCvol333 said:
thats a good point - it is pretty remarkable they gel like they do every year

if this happens to be an off year on that or an injury like the OP said they are vulnerable

just nothing in recent history to suggest the team won't gel, reload, and run through the SEC again with a great record
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Nothing to suggest they wont Run through the sec? Wasn't it his 2nd year they lost like 6 conference games, not exactly "running through" the SEC.
 
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#42
#42
I still think UK makes the tourney but no way possible a repeat threat. Stranger things have happend but IMO, as young as UKs been, they've always had an upper classman or two that helped lead the spark. I think that's pretty major when you have so much youth. This year team doesn't really have that. No Harrelson or Miller type guys left. It's all going to fall on youth and I just don't feel like these guys will be as talented as the previous UK teams.
 
#43
#43
Shaun1985 said:
I still think UK makes the tourney but no way possible a repeat threat. Stranger things have happend but IMO, as young as UKs been, they've always had an upper classman or two that helped lead the spark. I think that's pretty major when you have so much youth. This year team doesn't really have that. No Harrelson or Miller type guys left. It's all going to fall on youth and I just don't feel like these guys will be as talented as the previous UK teams.
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Add in being thin and not as talented overall and i just see no way they're top 5 and a final four team. 5-6 loss SEC team, and probably a 8/9 loss team in the regular season, and 4-6 seed in the tourney IMO.
 
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#44
#44
Noel not being eligible for UK will be a HUGE deal for that team. This is already the youngest team that Cal has ever had. His teams at UK (and at Memphis there at the end), thrive off of getting out in transition. You do that by solid defensive rebounding and blocking shots. They lose Noel, there is a gigantic hole in the middle of their defense.

They'd still have the best starting 5 in the SEC, most likely, but if Jon Hood is the first up off th bench, they're going to struggle come March.
 
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#45
#45
I fully expect him to be eligible, id be shocked if he gets ruled in eligible..

With that said I'd take our starting 5...
Golden
McRae
Edwards
Maymon
Stokes

Over UKs with no Noel...
Harrow
Goodwin
Poythress
Wiltjer
Cauley
 
#46
#46
bleedingTNorange said:
I fully expect him to be eligible, id be shocked if he gets ruled in eligible..

With that said I'd take our starting 5...
Golden
McRae
Edwards
Maymon
Stokes

Over UKs with no Noel...
Harrow
Goodwin
Poythress
Wiltjer
Cauley
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Well, naturally you would, you're a UT fan. Speaking as someone who doesn't have a dog in the hunt, UK's starting 5 is much more talented.

Doesn't mean they're the better team though.
 
#47
#47
MemphisCanes said:
Well, naturally you would, you're a UT fan. Speaking as someone who doesn't have a dog in the hunt, UK's starting 5 is much more talented.

Doesn't mean they're the better team though.
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True, but I think I'm thinking unbiased. Talent is close, but agreed UK would have more. However, the experience the UT guys would have over UKs is what would lean me towards UT.
 
#48
#48
UK is still more talented than other teams but this year is not night and day like it has been. They are for sure beatable.
 
#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
Nothing to suggest they wont Run through the sec? Wasn't it his 2nd year they lost like 6 conference games, not exactly "running through" the SEC.
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Yeah i shouldnt have phrased it like that - they did very well in the SEC - maybe not for KY - but 3rd in conference and winning the conference tourney is doing very well

i would say that team was not as talented as this year's will be

starting 5 was:

5 Harrellson
4 TJones
3 Dmiller
2 Dlamb
1 BKnight

first 2 off bench - Vargas and Liggins

that is not near as talented a team as the one that came before or after it

I think this year's team will be more talented than that one but obviously not as good as last year

still see that as good enough to go something like 13-3 in conference - likely 5 losses overall and be a top 5 team
 
#50
#50
SCvol333 said:
Yeah i shouldnt have phrased it like that - they did very well in the SEC - maybe not for KY - but 3rd in conference and winning the conference tourney is doing very well

i would say that team was not as talented as this year's will be

starting 5 was:

5 Harrellson
4 TJones
3 Dmiller
2 Dlamb
1 BKnight

first 2 off bench - Vargas and Liggins

that is not near as talented a team as the one that came before or after it

I think this year's team will be more talented than that one but obviously not as good as last year

still see that as good enough to go something like 13-3 in conference - likely 5 losses overall and be a top 5 team
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18 game schedule now fwiw. I just don't see it.
 
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