Madscientistvol
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One of my students told me today that she currently has 15 of the 16 Sweet 16 teams. She said she was in the upper 99.9 percent (or something like that) worldwide. I asked her what her method for picking was. She said "drinking."
Over-thinking probably is a very strong correlating factor with bad picks.
While we can generally figure out who are legitimate national title contenders, the rest, for the most part, are all just crap shoots. Someone who randomly fills out his or her bracket is probably just as likely to score as high as someone who approaches it "educatedly."