I’m thinking SEC basketball is

#26
#26
TheMookieMonster said:
I love the confidence the computers have in this team, but man 16-2 just seems bold and out of reach. It would be unprecedented for this program. I'd love to see it happen, but I just think I feel like 14-4 is more realistic. We're bound to shoot poorly in one game and lose a road contest we probably shouldn't. Maybe it is the BVS in me speaking more than anything else. I'd love to see the first 1-seed in program history though.
Click to expand...
Yea I get it, said as much a few weeks ago when I started posting the projections which at that time I think were 26-5(15-3)…I guess the thing with a cold night is that we’ve had many cold nights and have won, because of our defense. The other part being our schedule, you look at it and say well not sure I’ll project us losing at home (although we are due), so looking at road games…
@SC
@MSST
@lsu
@Florida
@Vandy
@UK
@A&M
@Aub

We avoid the tough teams/places to play or Alabama & Arkansas, obviously Kentucky is always tough on the road, but 2 losses in that group seems pretty realistic.

Again not saying I’m on the 16-2 train, but like you that may be more BVS and expecting a let down that computers don’t see coming.
 
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#27
#27
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea I get it, said as much a few weeks ago when I started posting the projections which at that time I think were 26-5(15-3)…I guess the thing with a cold night is that we’ve had many cold nights and have won, because of our defense. The other part being our schedule, you look at it and say well not sure I’ll project us losing at home (although we are due), so looking at road games…
@SC
@MSST
@lsu
@Florida
@Vandy
@UK
@A&M
@Aub

We avoid the tough teams/places to play or Alabama & Arkansas, obviously Kentucky is always tough on the road, but 2 losses in that group seems pretty realistic.

Again not saying I’m on the 16-2 train, but like you that may be more BVS and expecting a let down that computers don’t see coming.
Click to expand...

I definitely see the path to 16-2. Don’t get me wrong. I just need to see more consistency on offense before I buy-in. I think we are due for positive regression to the mean and hopefully the MSU game was the start of that trend. But, I also believe (like you mentioned) we are due to eventually drop a game at home. Still 14-4 is nothing to sneeze at. That would essentially guarantee a 3-seed at worst, but more than likely be a 2-seed. I just selfishly want to see that first 1-seed in program history at some point lol
 
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#28
#28
TheMookieMonster said:
I definitely see the path to 16-2. Don’t get me wrong. I just need to see more consistency on offense before I buy-in. I think we are due for positive regression to the mean and hopefully the MSU game was the start of that trend. But, I also believe (like you mentioned) we are due to eventually drop a game at home. Still 14-4 is nothing to sneeze at. That would essentially guarantee a 3-seed at worst, but more than likely be a 2-seed. I just selfishly want to see that first 1-seed in program history at some point lol
Click to expand...
This is a stronger team than last year ... what we lost to graduation and NBA .... we have more than compensated for in talent we have brought in.
We are deeper, more experienced than last year ... and if Phillips can sustain the same development curve that we saw in Chandler then we will be a well rounded team come tournament time.
We are currently sitting in the same location we were last year about this time. Except we then dropped 4 tough games on the road (Ala, Lsu, Ky and Tx) Ending January at 14-6 and 5-3 SEC

Loss #1 - We laid an egg against Colorado ... we shot a horrific % and had NO INSIDE GAME. The shooting part I partially chalk up to Bridgestone Arena. It got the teams attention!
Loss #2 - We played without JJJ and we played 5 vs 6 or 7 all night long. Limited inside game. Another night on a neutral floor with neutral refs and the game goes differently.
I am going with the theory we win all our home games. Not a guarantee!!!! I then eliminated road games I think we can win even on a bad night. That leaves the most difficult games ...
If we can get a split on those 2 road trips ... I think we come home 27-4 and 16-2 SEC headed into the SEC tournament. That would lock us in for nothing worse than a 2 seed in the NCAA.

1-17 @MSST (who will think they owe us one.)
1-21 @ LSU
2-18 @UK
2-21 @A&M
3-4 @AUB
 
#29
#29
TheMookieMonster said:
I love the confidence the computers have in this team, but man 16-2 just seems bold and out of reach. It would be unprecedented for this program. I'd love to see it happen, but I just think I feel like 14-4 is more realistic. We're bound to shoot poorly in one game and lose a road contest we probably shouldn't. Maybe it is the BVS in me speaking more than anything else. I'd love to see the first 1-seed in program history though.
Click to expand...
16-2 is not unprecedented. See the Ernie and Bernie years. However, I do agree in this day and age of parity that it is totally crazy unlikely. I think the next 2 games against SC and Vandy will give us some good clues going forward. Anyway, these are high class problems we’re trying to debate here.
 
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#30
#30
SN-A-C Orange said:
This is a stronger team than last year ... what we lost to graduation and NBA .... we have more than compensated for in talent we have brought in.
We are deeper, more experienced than last year ... and if Phillips can sustain the same development curve that we saw in Chandler then we will be a well rounded team come tournament time.
We are currently sitting in the same location we were last year about this time. Except we then dropped 4 tough games on the road (Ala, Lsu, Ky and Tx) Ending January at 14-6 and 5-3 SEC

Loss #1 - We laid an egg against Colorado ... we shot a horrific % and had NO INSIDE GAME. The shooting part I partially chalk up to Bridgestone Arena. It got the teams attention!
Loss #2 - We played without JJJ and we played 5 vs 6 or 7 all night long. Limited inside game. Another night on a neutral floor with neutral refs and the game goes differently.
I am going with the theory we win all our home games. Not a guarantee!!!! I then eliminated road games I think we can win even on a bad night. That leaves the most difficult games ...
If we can get a split on those 2 road trips ... I think we come home 27-4 and 16-2 SEC headed into the SEC tournament. That would lock us in for nothing worse than a 2 seed in the NCAA.

1-17 @MSST (who will think they owe us one.)
1-21 @ LSU
2-18 @UK
2-21 @A&M
3-4 @AUB[/QUOTE I think we win 3 of those. I’m not predicting this, but more of a feel. Disclaimer: my feel does not guarantee these 3 wins.
Click to expand...
 
#32
#32
Regardless of how we finish, I still fully expect to get hosed by the selection committee after last year's debacle. Also look for Jerry Palm to explain away why he has us no higher than a 3 seed.
 
#35
#35
We will lose some road games. 6-3 would be solid. We have played one road game and played poorly. Had we played anybody in the top half of the league it would have been an L
 
#37
#37
njvols said:
If we start playing offense consistently like last night and keep playing D, it's gonna be TN and everyone else!
Click to expand...

Heupel finishing up must have allowed him time to install his offense over at ATC this week. I like it!
 
#39
#39
cardvolfan said:
16-2 is not unprecedented. See the Ernie and Bernie years. However, I do agree in this day and age of parity that it is totally crazy unlikely. I think the next 2 games against SC and Vandy will give us some good clues going forward. Anyway, these are high class problems we’re trying to debate here.
Click to expand...

I like the High Class problems. This ain't the Wade Houston or Buzz Ball problems we useda have. We high fallutin' now! 😄
 
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#43
#43
TheMookieMonster said:
Yeah, Arkansas has had terrible luck with injuries this year. If not for Brazile and Smith going down, they likely are the most talented roster in the SEC and a national title favorite. Now? They are just a good team, not a great team, IMO.
Click to expand...

Hard to imagine the talent they had amassed because I also didn't know Smith Jr was a 2022 #1 recruit and that good. I don't remember him last year.
 
#46
#46
SouthknoxTN07 said:
As much as we dislike Kentucky , they will be there at the end .
Click to expand...

Yep, people are carrying on like this is the team from a couple of years ago. They are currently 16 in KenPom and have the best player in the country. I don't think they will win the conference but they are capable of getting hot at just the right time and making an NCAA run.
 
#47
#47
ColinS said:
Yep, people are carrying on like this is the team from a couple of years ago. They are currently 16 in KenPom and have the best player in the country. I don't think they will win the conference but they are capable of getting hot at just the right time and making an NCAA run.
Click to expand...
No doubt they are capable. I just like seeing them struggling and about to receive another loss today, even though Alabama winning makes me sad.
 
#50
#50
bleedingTNorange said:
I’ll actually hope for Kentucky to get the W today
Click to expand...

Same. I think Kentucky is going to be hot and cold this year. There are a lot of teams I could see them losing to. I don’t think there are many teams Alabama will lose to. A Kentucky win would go a long way to our regular season title hopes.
 
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