Interesting Clay Travis Quote

#52
#52
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I always find it risky to go against the people who feed their family by gambling. It's their actual job so they don't need to be right every time but they need to be right a lot to feed the kids.

We've dragged Nathan Peterman on this board but he's a professional QB and making 7 figures or near it playing QB. I'd not want to challenge his throwing skills vs mine. He's a pro. He's good with a football.

It's the same with pro gambling houses. You may think they suck, the line is wrong, but this is what they do every day to feed the kids. They aren't perfect but they definitely aren't starving. They're good with odds.
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So you’re saying stay a bachelor and keep the profits…..
 
#56
#56
CAVPUT said:
It's uncanny how well Vegas does. When a line and game like this presents, it makes you wonder what's really at play behind the scenes. Vegas have an ace up their sleeves? Who are the refs? Any big players laying down large sums on this one? Is this a bit like a stock market short play? I'm no gambler, but I am a seasoned tin hat guy. Something smells with this one. One thing is certain tho...I got zero expectations and a secure cup going into Saturday. No way in Hades would I bet this game. Nope
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Anyone who doesn't think Vegas can influence a game is Naive as hell. I suggest one look no further than the Jets over Buffalo in Rogers' debut game.
 
#57
#57
esarmstrong said:
Vegas' goal: get betting action relatively evenly distributed on both sides of the line. If they accomplish that, they win. Infallibility is never their goal.
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Not even close. Sportsbooks are greedy as hell. They don't want to lose one single game with lopsided action. How they manage it is up for debate, but the Officiating comes into play. Especially the NFL. And there are some good "Company Men" in the league that will take care of spreads too. Mahomes is the best. Sad, but true. Whenever there are Billions involved, there is always corruption. Always.
 
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#58
#58
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Clay Travis is part of a growing movement of celebrating the intersection of stupid and crazy. Vegas is a market driven by betting action. It’s not a conspiracy.
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RIGHT! And Mahomes & Allen just happened to lose their NFL openers this season against lesser competition Mahomes at home with the Chiefs celebrating their Super Bowl win, and with the Jet's Rogers going down on the second play from scrimmage---- Allen proceeds to play like JG and the Jets win! Amazing!! Not....
 
#59
#59
JohnWardForever said:
RIGHT! And Mahomes & Allen just happened to lose their NFL openers this season against lesser competition Mahomes at home with the Chiefs celebrating their Super Bowl win, and with the Jet's Rogers going down on the second play from scrimmage---- Allen proceeds to play like JG and the Jets win! Amazing!! Not....
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Stop drinking cleaning products!
 
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#62
#62
TennTom said:
Vegas does not "clean up" on games. They balance the betting 50/50 and "clean up" on the 10% juice from the losers. When they have significant play on one side, they hand off to other bookmakers to balance their betting. They are not in the business to make wagers on certain sides, wittingly or unwittingly. It's all about the juice.
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Exactly right.
 
#63
#63
35-18 sportsline projection with 57% confidence. under 63.5 with 73%.

USuCk currently getting 72% of bets and 82% of money, but pro bettors are all on UT (action network)
 
#64
#64
TeddyYeti said:
Exactly right.
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LMAO. Yall are so ILL Informed. How many Vegas clubs to you belong to? None. Oh well, I should just let this stuff go, since nobody can possibly know anything yall don't. That's the mentality. Accepted. Such trusting souls. "All Vegas wants is the Juice". Hilarious.
 
#65
#65
DeepSpringsVol said:
Yep those big casinos aren't built off being losers.
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And not off the "Juice" either. It takes a helluva lot more than 10% of the handle to run those Palaces. Hell they spend the Juice on Entertainment . When you see Games like the Jets with Rodgers going down and the Jets still winning with a pitiful QB compared to top 5 Josh Allen (4 turnovers) you surely know it's not legit. Next week Allen plays like the MVP? People are so Naive. ALL the in-game money and second half money was on the BILLS. C'mon Man. Stoerner , when someone continually quotes and rebuts, I ignore, & I have. Have a good one.
 
#69
#69
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Clay Travis is part of a growing movement of celebrating the intersection of stupid and crazy. Vegas is a market driven by betting action. It’s not a conspiracy.
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Human nature being what it is, in any arena where enough money is involved, you will occasionally have conspiracies. Not all will be successful but the attempts will be made.
Not saying that is what is happening here mind you; just pointing out a fact of life
 
#70
#70
Click bait for Clay Travis, IMO, which makes me want to puke...I'm sure some folks like him but behind the scenes he's a total douche bag...His public persona is somewhat abrasive and pretentious..But he is even worse out of the public view...

JMHO TIFWIW
 
#71
#71
OrangeTsar said:
Human nature being what it is, in any arena where enough money is involved, you will occasionally have conspiracies. Not all will be successful but the attempts will be made.
Not saying that is what is happening here mind you; just pointing out a fact of life
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OrangeTsar said:
Human nature being what it is, in any arena where enough money is involved, you will occasionally have conspiracies. Not all will be successful but the attempts will be made.
Not saying that is what is happening here mind you; just pointing out a fact of life
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The old FBI adage is that all conspiracies are exposed involving more than one person. Clay Travis here is implying that levels of complexity that are beyond reason, much less beyond actionable. An opening line does one thing only, attract action. As action comes in, the line adjusts to create equal betting on both sides. It’d be close to impossible for “Vegas” to gain on publishing an unrealistic line with so many uncontrollable variables. There are some very sophisticated bettors, who wait to assess a line that has driven balanced action while missing the outcome. As with the stock market, few advisors beat the efficiency of the market, but some do. While difficult, that’s much easier than controlling the outcome of a game, which is close to impossible, without being detected.
 
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#72
#72
Stoerner Fumbles said:
The old FBI adage is that all conspiracies are exposed involving more than one person. Clay Travis here is implying that levels of complexity that are beyond reason, much less beyond actionable. An opening line does one thing only, attract action. As action comes in, the line adjusts to create equal betting on both sides. It’d be close to impossible for “Vegas” to gain on publishing an unrealistic line with so many uncontrollable variables. There are some very sophisticated bettors, who wait to assess a line that has driven balanced action while missing the outcome. As with the stock market, few advisors beat the efficiency of the market, but some do. While difficult, that’s much easier than controlling the outcome of a game, which is close to impossible, without being detected.
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Does 51% success rate count as beating the market?
 
#75
#75
esarmstrong said:
Vegas' goal: get betting action relatively evenly distributed on both sides of the line. If they accomplish that, they win. Infallibility is never their goal.
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So why did the line move from Chiefs -9.5 to -7.5, if the vast majority of the money was on Kansas City?

"We have to respect the sharp money," Pullen said.

The long-held belief that bookmakers try to attract even action and collect the juice or commission is a myth in modern bookmaking. Sportsbooks instead try to manage the amount wagered on a game in a way that puts them on the same side as their customers they know have had long-term success, the sharp bettors. Although the action was overwhelmingly on the Chiefs on Sunday, the bets from the sharps caused the books to move the line toward the Jets.
 
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