Interesting thoughts about #1 offenses

[BigOrangeTrain]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

 

[chad4930]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

2018 OU - no defense
2022- TN no defense

 

[Volbrando]

2018 OU - no defense
2022- TN no defense

Bingo

 

[supersmo18]

 

[VOLfrombama]

If the Vols had a top 25 D, they’d be in the playoffs and then who knows what happens.

Also If we go top 5 offense, then there’s a 40% chance to win it all, if we are going solely by the past 5 years. Statistically speaking there is not much difference between #1 LSU and #2 bama offenses. Very close is most categories

 

[Visiting Dawg]

Generally speaking, most complete team wins. Same as it ever was.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

It's not that weird when you have the #1 offense and #70 defense that you don't win it. Most teams that win are good on both sides of the ball, and great on one.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

It really isn't a big secret that UT needs to improve on defense.

 

[JCHateSteve]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Once in 5 years doesn't seem that rare. One of the other times it was the number #2 offense. Never in that span was the NC outside the top 10 in offense and it'll likely to be the same this year. Based on that you need to have an offense in the top 8% to win a title. The top defense didn't win any title in that stretch and the champion was often outside the top 10. LSU in 2019 was in the 30s. Tennessee had a better defense that year. Those numbers support it being the "days of offense". Your defense still can't be terrible though.

 

[Illinoisvolfan2]

2018 OU - no defense
2022- TN no defense

with a passable defense and healthy Hook IMO we’d be in the final.

 

[Hopeful Vol]

Gotta have at least a decent defense first to go with a great offense. Our defense was largely trash this season.

 

[OrangeVolMan]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Now do the #1 defenses.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

I love statistical analysis…

So using this dataset it says that if UT would have had a better defense at worst UT would have had a 60% chance of being national champions. I say that because 3 out of last 5 years the team with a top 2 offense won the national championship.

Sounds like UT needs a few more ingredients on defense to be National Champion.

 

[EconVol92]

The Chargers in the early 80's had a lights out offense, but no defense and they never won anything to speak of.

On the other hand they were really fun to watch.

The Air Coryell offense was very similar to Heupel's at this time.

 

[MiramarVol]

It's not that weird when you have the #1 offense and #70 defense that you don't win it. Most teams that win are good on both sides of the ball, and great on one.

All that #1 Offense needs to do is miss on a couple drives and they're toast. That Defense is gonna give it up & that my friends is a wrap.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

I love statistical analysis…

So using this dataset it says that if UT would have had a better defense at worst UT would have had a 60% chance of being national champions. I say that because 3 out of last 5 years the team with a top 2 offense won the national championship.

Sounds like UT needs a few more ingredients on defense to be National Champion.

If one tries hard enough, one can always find statistics that will support almost anything one wishes to propose.

 

[HSTVol]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Adding stats to support what everyone is saying, look at the Total Dense ranking for each team. No D = No NC

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC. (#85 defense.)
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship (#2 defense.)
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship (#32 defense.)
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship (#31 defense.)
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship (#114 defense.)

 

[utvols74]

I'm glad the coaches know this and seem to be targeting D players in the portal. Having done so, there is a lot to "make up for" with the loss of Hooker and Hyatt (understatement of the season).

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

The majority of national champions going back to 2009 (which is how far cfbstats.com goes back) have been either #1 or #2 in scoring defense. All but I think 4 of 13 have been Top 10.

 

[The Original Fade]

View attachment 522117

I loved deep thoughts by jack handy!

 

[jaguinn5]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Top 10 offense gets it done with a good defense.

 

[Allvols1996]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

That’s a pretty myopic view. All the teams you teams you listed were elite offenses.

 

[Matt2496]

We need a defense. Groundbreaking revelation here.

 

[pimo1]

with a passable defense and healthy Hook IMO we’d be in the final.

We have a passable defense.. that's the exact problem is way too passable.

All jokes aside our defense was not bad... our coverage in secondary was bad. Our front 7 was actually pretty good. our secondary was ravaged with Injuries all year. i mean seriously was there one game where we didn't have at least 203 guys hurt in the secondary? I am pretty sure we probably never started the same 5 guys in back to back games and it was about injuries/suspensions not guys losing their jobs.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Let's focus on all the national champs of the past ten years:

'21 - Georgia - #9 offense, #1 defense
'20 - Alabama - #2 offense, #13 defense
'19 - LSU - #1 offense, #33 defense
'18 - Clemson - #4 offense, #1 defense
'17 - Alabama - #15 offense, #1 defense
'16 - Clemson - #14 offense, #10 defense
'15 - Alabama - #30 offense, #2 defense
'14 - Ohio State - #5 offense, #26 defense
'13 - Florida State - #2 offense, #1 defense
'12 - Alabama - #12 offense, #1 defense

• 7 of the 10 were ranked higher at defense than offense -- but you can win championships being better at either (proving yet again that "defense wins championships" is a phrase that has outlived its truth)
• statistically speaking, the best, most balanced of these teams were 2013 FSU (#1 defense and #2 offense), and 2018 Clemson (#1 def, #4 off)
• 2016 Clemson proved you can win a national title without a top 5 defense OR offense. Barely top 10 in one, lower in the other.
• the weakest side of all the champions this past decade was 2019 LSU, with the nation's #33 defense. Joe Burrow cures many ills, it seems. 2015 Bama's #30 offense and 2014 Ohio State's #26 defense weren't much better; both mediocre as Power 5 teams go.

So if we can get our defense up into the 20s, or low 30s, and keep our offense at/near #1, we definitely have a shot in 2023 and beyond.

Go Vols!