Interesting thoughts about #1 offenses

[Pride85]

Ok. I love the off season. Yes, our defense could definitely be better. Remember, last year the defense was hurt the most by departures whether it be the portal or just leaving the program. Why must we as a fan base find ways to knock this team. Why is 10-2 with a chance to win 11 games in almost 20 years not enough for year 2 with our head coach? We have some decent defensive players in this class, with some key pieces in the portal.

 

[supersmo18]

I loved deep thoughts by jack handy!

Jack Handy was an underrated writer for SNL, that guy was brilliant

 

[BIGORANGEBUBBA]

Relevance though. For twenty years Tennessee has been an afterthought. Maybe the Vols never win another title maybe they do...our guys have to be involved in the mix. That is where we should hope to be.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Let's focus on all the national champs of the past ten years:

'21 - Georgia - #9 offense, #1 defense
'20 - Alabama - #2 offense, #13 defense
'19 - LSU - #1 offense, #33 defense
'18 - Clemson - #4 offense, #1 defense
'17 - Alabama - #15 offense, #1 defense
'16 - Clemson - #14 offense, #10 defense
'15 - Alabama - #30 offense, #2 defense
'14 - Ohio State - #5 offense, #26 defense
'13 - Florida State - #2 offense, #1 defense
'12 - Alabama - #12 offense, #1 defense

• 7 of the 10 were ranked higher at defense than offense -- but you can win championships being better at either (proving yet again that "defense wins championships" is a phrase that has outlived its truth)
• statistically speaking, the best, most balanced of these teams were 2013 FSU (#1 defense and #2 offense), and 2018 Clemson (#1 def, #4 off)
• 2016 Clemson proved you can win a national title without a top 5 defense OR offense. Barely top 10 in one, lower in the other.
• the weakest side of all the champions this past decade was 2019 LSU, with the nation's #33 defense. Joe Burrow cures many ills, it seems. 2015 Bama's #30 offense and 2014 Ohio State's #26 defense weren't much better; both mediocre as Power 5 teams go.

So if we can get our defense up into the 20s, or low 30s, and keep our offense at/near #1, we definitely have a shot in 2023 and beyond.

Go Vols!

Joe Burrow's defense also got alot better as the season progressed. It struggled for awhile but down the stretch became a very good unit as it's talent matured.

 

[JBVolunteer]

Pair our offensive production this season with even a moderately improved defense and we are a playoff team.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

This is a really misguided observation.

 

[JoAllan]

Scoring defense:
2022 Illinois - no championship
2021 Georgia - championship (9th O)
2020 Marshall - no championship
2019 Georgia - no championship
2018 Clemson - championship (4th O)
2017 Alabama - championship (15th O)
2016 Alabama - no championship
2015 Wisconsin - no championship
2014 Mississippi - no championship
2013 FSU - championship (#2 O)

over the past 10 years having the best defense got you a championship 4 times. 3 of the 4 had a top 10 offense to go with the number 1 D, and the other one was still top 15.

Georgia’s championship game it was 33-18
Clemson’s championship game it was 44-16
Bamas championship game they won 26-23
FSU’s championship game they won 34-31

In all of those the top D gave up more than their average; however in 2 the D’s gave up a lot more than average.

2 of the 4 defense won, 2 of the 4 offense won

It takes WAY more than just a good D now days to win a championship.

 

[The Original Fade]

Jack Handy was an underrated writer for SNL, that guy was brilliant

There were some true classics for sure.

“Boxing is a lot like ballet…..except there’s no music, and the dancers hit each other”

 

[livefaith]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Did you check how many times the #3 offense in the nation wins the natty?

No tryna be a jackass. Making a valid point that the odds are probably similar. #1 is just ONE of the options for a good offense to finish. Statistically equal to #8 or # 3 or #14. Better teams should trend higher, but expecting to land specifically on #1 is not in stats favor. The fact that 2 teams DID finish #1 in your list lends huge probabilities to being champions, if the math in my head is right. (EDIT: Oops only 1 champ. Still once)

The approach here reminds me of those who tout all the mass numbers 3* players who make the NFL. On the surface it would appear that 3* is better odds than 4* or 5*. Unfortunately people forget to back out of those numbers for a second and realize that 3* players make up a massively higher pool of players than 4*, and it's rediculous how many more than 5*. Stats can be tricky.

But, I digress to say ... I'd take the #1 offense for the next 50 years of I could over ANY other #.

 

[RavinDave]

If one tries hard enough, one can always find statistics that will support almost anything one wishes to propose.

There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Let's focus on all the national champs of the past ten years:

'16 - Clemson - #14 offense, #10 defense

• 2016 Clemson proved you can win a national title without a top 5 defense OR offense. Barely top 10 in one, lower in the other.

!

Are these rankings based on yardage or scoring stats?

I'd argue that offensive and defensive efficiency ratings are much better since they take into account # of plays and SoS. On that metric, Clemson had the #3 offense and #8 defense in 2016, which seems more in line with national champion stats.

LSU's 2019 team also has the #11 defense on that metric. They probably look worse than in reality on yardage / scoring just because their offense was one of the most efficient in CFB history.

 

[livefaith]

Joe Burrow's defense also got alot better as the season progressed. It struggled for awhile but down the stretch became a very good unit as it's talent matured.

So true. I watched a season recap for them. They barely survived the 1st ½ of the season undefeated. The ball bounce a couple different ways and they are 2 or 3 loser that finished strong in a good bowl game.

I thot maybe our D had turned a similar corner this year at the UK beatdown. Not quite. . Here's to Heupel stacking this roster for years to come.

 

[1989Vol]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC

2021- UGA (#9 offense)- (#1 defense) National championship

2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

Fixed it for ya

 

[lifeisdeep]

View attachment 522117

That was when SNL was the truth.

 

[lifeisdeep]

It really isn't a big secret that UT needs to improve on defense.

Oh, wow, I had no idea our defense was lacking.

 

[volfanhill]

So I was a little bit curious about programs who finish the regular season with the #1 overall offense. What I was most curious about was how often does that team win it all? I only went back 5 years. So let’s go

2022- TN (#1 offense)- Orange Bowl No NC
2021- UGA (#9 offense)- National championship
2020- Bama (#2 offense)- National championship
2019-LSU (#1 offense) - National championship
2018- OU (#1 offense)- No national championship

Seems strange in the days of offense that rarely does the best offense in CF profuse a national championship.

So a top 2 offense will win you a natty 40% of the time. And that seems low to you? Ignoring everything else about a team and only looking at if you are a top two offense. That seems impressive to me if I am only using that lense.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Oh, wow, I had no idea our defense was lacking.

Post was directed towards OP as yeah, we know.

 

[lifeisdeep]

Post was directed towards OP as yeah, we know.

I was just playing along - no insult intended.

 

[Jazzy#10]

The Chargers in the early 80's had a lights out offense, but no defense and they never won anything to speak of.

On the other hand they were really fun to watch.

The Air Coryell offense was very similar to Heupel's at this time.

Yes and no. The difference with the Air Coryell teams is, the Chargers had defensive talent. They were just too tired to stop the other team because of the Fast Strikes. Same here, but the talent is wanting. Fred Dean, Louie Kelcher, Woody Lowe and Gary 'Big Hands" Johnson were quality defenders.

 

[LordBolton]

Yep the top offense means you will be in every game with a chance to win (or should be). But to be a champion you have to be able to slow down/stop the opponent, or they will be in every game with a chance to win. We will get there.