Iowa Caucus

#1
Gramps

Gramps

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#1
What will the results be?


I think it will be :
1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Romney
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
 
#2
#2
Whatever the result is, it doesn't mean much. If I heard correctly, since 1979 only 3 of the winners in Iowa went on to get the nomination.
 
#3
#3
Gramps said:
What will the results be?


I think it will be :
1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Romney
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
Click to expand...

It won't be Santorum.

My guess:

1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Perry
4. Santorum
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
 
#7
#7
Gramps said:
What will the results be?


I think it will be :
1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Romney
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
Click to expand...

I'd flip Gingrich and Perry and possibly Paul and Santorum but this looks like a solid prediction.
 
#9
#9
If Perry gets into 3rd place, he'll win the night.
 
#10
#10
GAVol said:
If Perry gets into 3rd place, he'll win the night.
Click to expand...

Agreed...If he gets in 3rd that will open a lot of eyes and I think that wont be a good thing for Mitt. But I think it's a very long shot for Perry.
 
#11
#11
Just saw Perry being interviewed. He doesn't think Romney can win SC because of his record as gov, especially the MA healthcare mandate.
 
#13
#13
I think whatever the outcome tonight is, Romney may have really screwed up going so negative on Newt. Newt may be irreparably damaged, but I think he'll be perfectly content to spend the next couple of months scorching the earth to keep the moderate from winning.
 
#14
#14
GAVol said:
I think whatever the outcome tonight is, Romney may have really screwed up going so negative on Newt. Newt may be irreparably damaged, but I think he'll be perfectly content to spend the next couple of months scorching the earth to keep the moderate from winning.
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more with this. I think we are getting ready to see a new Newt and Romney is target number 1.
 
#16
#16
Is there any doubt that Iowa has the most screwed up system in America?
 
#18
#18
I like how they give preference to people who actually care, but that's about the extent of it. I refresh up on it every 4 years, and still don't really understand how it works.
 
#19
#19
There is a decent chance that Romney will end up with less of a percentage than he got in 2008 (25 %). That would be terrible news for his electability as it would signal that if he is the nominee his own party would be skeptical of his candidacy.
 
#22
#22
Rasputin_Vol said:
What makes the Iowa system screwed up? Am I missing something?
Click to expand...

Mainly that it's a caucus and not a primary. It's apt to have wild swings and produce unpredictable results. A week ago, Rick Santorum was in single digits. Currently he's tied for the lead.

Plus, on a fundamental level it always drives me nuts that a small state with a caucus system gets to basically establish the frontrunners for being the leader of the free world.
 
#23
#23
GAVol said:
Mainly that it's a caucus and not a primary. It's apt to have wild swings and produce unpredictable results. A week ago, Rick Santorum was in single digits. Currently he's tied for the lead.

Plus, on a fundamental level it always drives me nuts that a small state with a caucus system gets to basically establish the frontrunners for being the leader of the free world.
Click to expand...

How is it that it being a caucus vs a primary affecting voter mood? Coming into the the caucus the last few days, we have seen Santorum trending up, so we had some idea what the final vote was going to be. I don't think group dynamics played a roll and I don't think a primary would have changed the outcome.

I just don't see enough to make me say that this is a horrible system.

Plus, small states have just as much right to determin a president as anyone else. Would the alternative be better if we had California and New York making the decision? :unsure:
 
#24
#24
Theres more to it than that. You've also got the screwy way delegates get dispersed, the entrance straw poll vs the actual results etc. It's just a convoluted process vs. A straight primary.
 
#25
#25
GAVol said:
Theres more to it than that. You've also got the screwy way delegates get dispersed, the entrance straw poll vs the actual results etc. It's just a convoluted process vs. A straight primary.
Click to expand...

The delegate process confuses me because its not based on the percentage of the votes received. Iowa can run their primary/caucus in whatever way suites them, I'm glad we have a straight primary.
 
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