It won’t last long but Vols looking good at #4

#51
#51
Kingofkodak said:
I still believe 9-9 and a SEC Tourney Win would qualify as a successful season. I realize we all want an NCAA Bid but this squad has been a complete rebuilding project. NIT would be fine, NCAA invite even better. I think Barnes and his Staff have done a great job with the players available. The Big Guns are on the way and the experience the younger guys are getting will pay off in the future. I would like another Post player in 2020. Any news on the Cardwell kid out of Georgia? Thanks!
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Cardwell is seemingly down to four schools...I haven’t seen that change...Tennessee, Vandy, Miami, and Georgia. Vandy seems like a dumpster fire, right now. Miami seems like a slight outlier, geographically speaking. So, if I had to guess, I’d say it is most currently between Tennessee and UGA, but apparently some others are attempting to get involved, now. No telling how out of date that info is. His plan was always to sign in the spring. We still stand a good shot, but we need another spot to open up, too.
 
#52
#52
calban said:
What's weird is the projection services before OM predicting 17-14 and OM as a win. Beat OM and the next day they project 18-13 and the odds of getting to the dance increase 20%. what gives?
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I could be wrong but I think it’s analytics. Before last night Tennessee’s O and D looked a certain way (in the numbers). With Tennessee’s O, over preforming and their D even over performing......that changed the analytics overall.....just a bit.......probably just enough for the numbers to say they would beat a team in which the numbers “had” suggested they would earlier lose by a small margin.
 
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#53
#53
calban said:
What's weird is the projection services before OM predicting 17-14 and OM as a win. Beat OM and the next day they project 18-13 and the odds of getting to the dance increase 20%. what gives?
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I wonder if they originally had UF as a slight favorite over us at home, and their loss last night tipped the scales slightly in our favor at home against UF.
 
#55
#55
VolFanNC09 said:
Team is definitely looking better. We need 8 more wins to get in the tourney and back half of the schedule is loaded. Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas. If we somehow win this weekend we are back on the bubble. Rick should be coach of the year again if he can make the tourney with this team.
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If we go 9-9 in the league, we'll get into the NCAA
 
#57
#57
calban said:
What's weird is the projection services before OM predicting 17-14 and OM as a win. Beat OM and the next day they project 18-13 and the odds of getting to the dance increase 20%. what gives?
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It’s cumulative...the number of wins and losses rarely add up to the actual projection.

Example...we could be favored in the next 5 games by 1.5, 1.2, 2.3, 0.7 and 1.1 so while we are projected to be favored in each individual game, the cumulative prediction of those 5 close games is probably more like 3.7-1.3, not 5-0.

So when we beat OM, that added a 100% win, took out the probability of a loss.
 
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#68
#68
The defense has looked better the last couple of games but that could be the last 2 teams were bad but Kansas will tell us more on offense and defense.
 
#69
#69
Just my opinion but I do not think Tennessee gets in the tourney at 19-13 (via a 1st round SEC loss).

I also don’t think they should....if that were their record......if you are on the bubble......or even kind of on the bubble and you lose in the first round of your conference tourney.....you really got no business in the NCAA tournament.
 
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#70
#70
The SEC is truly playing bad basketball this year, but there is no one in the entire country who looks very good. We have very winnable games against A&M, Miss. State, South Carolina, Arkansas (at home) and of course Vandy. That is 5. Find another 2 before we get to SEC tournament and we will be a bubble team, which would be remarkable for this team. Let’s start with a possibly depleted Kansas this weekend. Ole Miss was not a good team, but our ball movement was much better. Should be a confidence builder and I think Barnes can still get this squad to improve down the stretch. We are going to need it.
 
#73
#73
Something I hadn't realized.
TN already has 2 Quad 1 wins. Second behind KY who has 4.
We have 8 more chances (current NET) for Quad 1 wins. that's 15 Quad 1 games we'll play.(most in the SEC)
Everyone else has 5 or 6 more chances.

What it means. Possibility of leap frogging other teams with more wins increases greatly.
Road wins that could really help us: MS, Bama, Ark all Q1.(the less obvious)
 
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#74
#74
vols 30 said:
Still , the Vols are not even in "the next 4 out" in Lunardi's bracket. That is surprising
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For what it's worth, we're currently second among Next 4 Out (so we're basically the sixth team out) on Bracket Matrix, which accumulates all the bracketology type articles and not just Lunardi.

I think if we beat Kansas, we're right back into serious bubble talk. If not but we keep plugging along OK in conference, I think we'll eventually get back to that point. Another bad stretch like late December through LSU, though, and we're probably toast.
 
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