JJJ becoming an NBA 3&D?

[MinisterofDef#92]

Still think I’m discounting his shot way too much? Now that he is back playing big minutes regularly, his 3 point percentage is right in line with where it has been the bulk of his career this season.

Since he played 30+ minutes back to back vs Miss State and LSU, in his last 5 games he is 2-24 from 3.

We do this every year with JJJ and squint and find a sample size to make us think he has turned the corner with his shot only to have a severe correction that gets him back to his statistical norm.

Great kid and good college player; but after 100 games in his career it’s probably time to accept him for what he is and not project much more than what he has shown.

No doubt he has struggled but 5 games do not define a career. He is a career 33% 3-pt shooter and 80% at the stripe. Based on those numbers alone, most NBA scouts would say he can further develop his stroke. He played big minutes and was our statistical leader in almost every category for the last 15 games of the '21 season when he shot +37% which he continued through the first 1/3 or this season despite battling a serious knee injury.

 

[Vols8086]

No doubt he has struggled but 5 games do not define a career. He is a career 33% 3-pt shooter and 80% at the stripe. Based on those numbers alone, most NBA scouts would say he can further develop his stroke. He played big minutes and was our statistical leader in almost every category for the last 15 games of the '21 season when he shot +37% which he continued through the first 1/3 or this season despite battling a serious knee injury.

Neither do 15, which is what you tried to point to and suggest he can shoot.

A career 33% 3 point shooter, when he has only had 1 season above that number isn’t something to write home about.

 

[BreatheUT]

Still think I’m discounting his shot way too much? Now that he is back playing big minutes regularly, his 3 point percentage is right in line with where it has been the bulk of his career this season.

Since he played 30+ minutes back to back vs Miss State and LSU, in his last 5 games he is 2-24 from 3.

We do this every year with JJJ and squint and find a sample size to make us think he has turned the corner with his shot only to have a severe correction that gets him back to his statistical norm.

Great kid and good college player; but after 100 games in his career it’s probably time to accept him for what he is and not project much more than what he has shown.

I knew this thread was a joke when it was created.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

Neither do 15, which is what you tried to point to and suggest he can shoot.

A career 33% 3 point shooter, when he has only had 1 season above that number isn’t something to write home about.

My sample size was ~23 games when I made that original post (i.e., last 16 games of '21 season and first 7 games of '22 as shown below). Your sample size is 5 games to show JJJ is not a good shooter...same could then be said of SV who also shot below 30% in a recent 5 game stretch (27 attempts) which we both know doesn't tell the story.

And, to be clear, I'm not arguing JJJ is a great 3-pt shoot nor am I saying his 3-point shooting helps NBA draft stock which is where our original discussion started. JJJ is a better 3-pt shooter than his career stats show based on the data (not opinion...now, one can argue it was an anomaly) once you adjust for his injuries and that NBA teams could see him developing a better stroke given the context and his career 80% FT. I will also say JJJ is not a natural shooter and needs reps to hone his stroke and build his confidence.

Here are the facts:

1) JJJ shot 37% (79 attempts) from 3 as a freshman (on 2.9 attempts per game while starting 26 games)

2) Injuries somewhat affected his SO season but disregarding that he shot 31% (91 attempts)

3) JJJ has surgery on his thumb before season starts - shoots 26% (85 attempts) the first 16 games of JR season

4) JJJ shoots 39% (88 attempts) his last 16 games of his JR season

5) JJJ shot 41% (34 attempts, 7 games) to start this season while battling knee issues...he has only had 2 games over 25% since so he has struggled in 7 of the last 9 games

We will see if JJJ turns it around or continues to tank the remainder of the season.

 

[VOLtaism]

The best athlete on the team. It amazes me why he does not drive the basket every time he touches it? Great first step, long stride and jumps out of the gym = 1 driving layup per game??

 

[BreatheUT]

The best athlete on the team. It amazes me why he does not drive the basket every time he touches it? Great first step, long stride and jumps out of the gym = 1 driving layup per game??

Because he does not have great handle skills nor does he have good hops...that's why

 

[VOLtaism]

Because he does not have great handle skills nor does he have good hops...that's why

I would say he has the longest step and jumps higher than anyone on this team, seems like he could get a handle on the ball in 4 years of practice? He does drive occasionally and usually looks great doing it but when he gets the ball its pass or shoot.

 

[Vols8086]

My sample size was ~23 games when I made that original post (i.e., last 16 games of '21 season and first 7 games of '22 as shown below). Your sample size is 5 games to show JJJ is not a good shooter...same could then be said of SV who also shot below 30% in a recent 5 game stretch (27 attempts) which we both know doesn't tell the story.

And, to be clear, I'm not arguing JJJ is a great 3-pt shoot nor am I saying his 3-point shooting helps NBA draft stock which is where our original discussion started. JJJ is a better 3-pt shooter than his career stats show based on the data (not opinion...now, one can argue it was an anomaly) once you adjust for his injuries and that NBA teams could see him developing a better stroke given the context and his career 80% FT. I will also say JJJ is not a natural shooter and needs reps to hone his stroke and build his confidence.

Here are the facts:

1) JJJ shot 37% (79 attempts) from 3 as a freshman (on 2.9 attempts per game while starting 26 games)

2) Injuries somewhat affected his SO season but disregarding that he shot 31% (91 attempts)

3) JJJ has surgery on his thumb before season starts - shoots 26% (85 attempts) the first 16 games of JR season

4) JJJ shoots 39% (88 attempts) his last 16 games of his JR season

5) JJJ shot 41% (34 attempts, 7 games) to start this season while battling knee issues...he has only had 2 games over 25% since so he has struggled in 7 of the last 9 games

We will see if JJJ turns it around or continues to tank the remainder of the season.

I'm not sure you know what the word "opinion" means. To say that someone is a better shooter than their actual stats (which are inarguable facts) is a textbook example of an "opinion". What you have done is try and give context to the data to suggest that it could be better otherwise. However, it doesn't change what the actual facts and data.

He has played 100 games in his college career. Over his last 73 games played, he is a sub 32% 3 point shooter. This is not an opinion but a fact. I could see your position better if he had suddenly jumped to a 36% or 37% 3 point shooter in his final year, but that hasn't happened. When De'Aaron Fox was drafted many touted his FT shooting percentage as a reason to believe his 3 point percentage would become a better asset but that has never happened to the level they though. That made sense though when he you're looking at an 18 year old kid with only one season.

JJJ has been with a coach and in a program that is regarded in its ability to develop players and their shots well, yet his hasn't after all this time. The NBA looks at certain metrics harder when they don't have a large body of work to look at. That isn't the case here and is why I have said I don't see JJJ as an NBA player.

There really isn't much to project on JJJ at this point. He pretty much is what he is and I don't see any reason to believe their is untapped potential in him. It's the same song and dance for 4 years now. At some point you just have to accept what you have.

 

[EZE]

Still think I’m discounting his shot way too much? Now that he is back playing big minutes regularly, his 3 point percentage is right in line with where it has been the bulk of his career this season.

Since he played 30+ minutes back to back vs Miss State and LSU, in his last 5 games he is 2-24 from 3.

We do this every year with JJJ and squint and find a sample size to make us think he has turned the corner with his shot only to have a severe correction that gets him back to his statistical norm.

Great kid and good college player; but after 100 games in his career it’s probably time to accept him for what he is and not project much more than what he has shown.

He definitely seems like a great young man. I wish him great success after college, but it likely will not involve playing on an NBA floor.

I’m not knocking him as a player…he is a solid college contributor. And I’m appreciative of his contributions to this program. But I see nothing in his game that translates to the NBA. Maybe Europe…

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

I'm not sure you know what the word "opinion" means. To say that someone is a better shooter than their actual stats (which are inarguable facts) is a textbook example of an "opinion". What you have done is try and give context to the data to suggest that it could be better otherwise. However, it doesn't change what the actual facts and data.

He has played 100 games in his college career. Over his last 73 games played, he is a sub 32% 3 point shooter. This is not an opinion but a fact. I could see your position better if he had suddenly jumped to a 36% or 37% 3 point shooter in his final year, but that hasn't happened. When De'Aaron Fox was drafted many touted his FT shooting percentage as a reason to believe his 3 point percentage would become a better asset but that has never happened to the level they though. That made sense though when he you're looking at an 18 year old kid with only one season.

JJJ has been with a coach and in a program that is regarded in its ability to develop players and their shots well, yet his hasn't after all this time. The NBA looks at certain metrics harder when they don't have a large body of work to look at. That isn't the case here and is why I have said I don't see JJJ as an NBA player.

There really isn't much to project on JJJ at this point. He pretty much is what he is and I don't see any reason to believe their is untapped potential in him. It's the same song and dance for 4 years now. At some point you just have to accept what you have.

Always amazing how some on here want to denigrate and assume the anonymous person they are interacting with is somehow inferior to them...lol. Given you don't believe in data contextualization and, instead, believe data should only be taken at face value, you would have to agree that Lamonte Turner is not a good 3-pt shooter. Would you really agree with that assessment?

 

[Vols8086]

Always amazing how some on here want to denigrate and assume the anonymous person they are interacting with is somehow inferior to them...lol. Given you don't believe in data contextualization and, instead, believe data should only be taken at face value, you would have to agree that Lamonte Turner is not a good 3-pt shooter. Would you really agree with that assessment?

Contextualizing data is one thing.

Using it to suggest an alternate, and in this case superior, outcome and then trying to say that alternate reality is factual is categorically false.

But hey, anything to sunshine pump and stay on brand is your thing. So that was my mistake for thinking the anonymous person I was interacting with was capable of more than what they have shown. My bad.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

Contextualizing data is one thing.

Using it to suggest an alternate, and in this case superior, outcome and then trying to say that alternate reality is factual is categorically false.

But hey, anything to sunshine pump and stay on brand is your thing. So that was my mistake for thinking the anonymous person I was interacting with was capable of more than what they have shown. My bad.

Again with the derogatory attacks with no substance...lmao (hint: it's sophomoric and undermines your position especially when the person you are trying to insult could care less)

Care to explain how my dissecting actual data to show that injuries MIGHT have affected JJJ's shooting %'age and how a NBA team MIGHT reach the same conclusion is sunshine pumping (especially when I never claimed JJJ would get into the NBA)?

I stared this as an innocuous observation to have some dialog...it's okay if we agree to disagree but it's hilarious you are apparently so disturbed you feel the need to throw shade my way because we apparently differ on whether JJJ's injuries might have lowered his 3-pt %'age over the last 15 months by a few points (and, to be clear, you asserting JJJ's injuries didn't affect his %'age is a reasonable take).

 

[Vols8086]

Again with the derogatory attacks with no substance...lmao (hint: it's sophomoric and undermines your position especially when the person you are trying to insult could care less)

Care to explain how my dissecting actual data to show that injuries MIGHT have affected JJJ's shooting %'age and how a NBA team MIGHT reach the same conclusion is sunshine pumping (especially when I never claimed JJJ would get into the NBA)?

I stared this as an innocuous observation to have some dialog...it's okay if we agree to disagree but it's hilarious you are apparently so disturbed you feel the need to throw shade my way because we apparently differ on whether JJJ's injuries might have lowered his 3-pt %'age over the last 15 months by a few points (and, to be clear, you asserting JJJ's injuries didn't affect his %'age is a reasonable take).

First of all, it’s “I couldn’t care less”. Saying that you could care less implies that you do care. Which is pretty obvious at this point because you seem super pressed about all this.

You’re doing a whole lot of backpedaling on your takes here and then trying to deflect by acting like my retorts were too harsh. It just sounds like you can’t handle being wrong or questioned.

You are the one that said JJJ is a “better 3-pt shooter than his career stats show based on the data” and that’s “not an opinion”. I pushed back on that because there is not any data to show with absolute certainty when he was 100% healthy vs 90% (or whatever level of health you want to use) and then drawing a direct correlation to a rise/drop in his 3 point shooting percentage based on his health. The only hard data we have are his actual game numbers. The rest is pure conjecture at best.

I never said it wasn’t possible those injuries affected him and that was never a take I had. But again, I’m not the one saying injuries are some sort of hard data to suggest JJJ is a better shooter either.

You also claimed in this very thread that you “do not see how JJJ does not make an NBA roster” and that you believe he “has a good chance to carve out a nice career”. Sounds very much like a claim JJJ would make the NBA to me.

But really no need to go further if you’re just going to constantly back track and deal in potential alternate universes and pass it off as facts and hard data. Good talk.

 

[turdherder11]

JJJ is what he is. He has the occasional good game. I was hopeful he would have a better season. He's been mediocre at best and the offense seems to stall when he's at the 3. I still hope things can change. He's a great team player.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

First of all, it’s “I couldn’t care less”. Saying that you could care less implies that you do care. Which is pretty obvious at this point because you seem super pressed about all this.

You’re doing a whole lot of backpedaling on your takes here and then trying to deflect by acting like my retorts were too harsh. It just sounds like you can’t handle being wrong or questioned.

You are the one that said JJJ is a “better 3-pt shooter than his career stats show based on the data” and that’s “not an opinion”. I pushed back on that because there is not any data to show with absolute certainty when he was 100% healthy vs 90% (or whatever level of health you want to use) and then drawing a direct correlation to a rise/drop in his 3 point shooting percentage based on his health. The only hard data we have are his actual game numbers. The rest is pure conjecture at best.

I never said it wasn’t possible those injuries affected him and that was never a take I had. But again, I’m not the one saying injuries are some sort of hard data to suggest JJJ is a better shooter either.

You also claimed in this very thread that you “do not see how JJJ does not make an NBA roster” and that you believe he “has a good chance to carve out a nice career”. Sounds very much like a claim JJJ would make the NBA to me.

But really no need to go further if you’re just going to constantly back track and deal in potential alternate universes and pass it off as facts and hard data. Good talk.

I do think JJJ makes a NBA roster and has a nice chance to carve out a niche career BUT not because of he's a great 3-pt shooter which is what I was responding to for the bolded above.

And, I find it very interesting that this whole back and forth started because you bumped my post while touting 5 games of JJJ's poor shooting and then proceeded to entirely dismiss the 23 games I referenced - pure gold.

And, I will take your non-response to Lamonte's situation as an affirmative that you consider him to be a poor 3-point shooter and that JJJ is actually a better 3-pt shooter (3 out of 4 seasons) because that's what the season averages show and we can't know to what degree his shoulder injury affected Lamonte.

The simple point around JJJ's 3-pt shooting is that the data shows he has shot well above his career average for very long stretches with a lot of attempts - that's a fact which goes back to my original comment to you that you MAY be discounting his shot too much.

Agreed - no need to continue cluttering up the thread.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

First of all, it’s “I couldn’t care less”. Saying that you could care less implies that you do care. Which is pretty obvious at this point because you seem super pressed about all this.

You’re doing a whole lot of backpedaling on your takes here and then trying to deflect by acting like my retorts were too harsh. It just sounds like you can’t handle being wrong or questioned.

You are the one that said JJJ is a “better 3-pt shooter than his career stats show based on the data” and that’s “not an opinion”. I pushed back on that because there is not any data to show with absolute certainty when he was 100% healthy vs 90% (or whatever level of health you want to use) and then drawing a direct correlation to a rise/drop in his 3 point shooting percentage based on his health. The only hard data we have are his actual game numbers. The rest is pure conjecture at best.

I never said it wasn’t possible those injuries affected him and that was never a take I had. But again, I’m not the one saying injuries are some sort of hard data to suggest JJJ is a better shooter either.

You also claimed in this very thread that you “do not see how JJJ does not make an NBA roster” and that you believe he “has a good chance to carve out a nice career”. Sounds very much like a claim JJJ would make the NBA to me.

But really no need to go further if you’re just going to constantly back track and deal in potential alternate universes and pass it off as facts and hard data. Good talk.

Merriam-Webster could care less which might could be the correct idiom.

Is It 'Could' or 'Couldn't Care Less'?