Josh Dobbs vs Nathan Peterman

[DiderotsGhost]

Saw a bit of discussion on Dobbs versus Peterman in another thread. Thought it would be fun to compare and contrast their performances over the past two seasons.

I'm not doing this to start an argument. My personal opinion is that Dobbs is a better fit in our offense than Peterman, but that Peterman was always underrated and underappreciated when he was here. I'm happy to see he's found success at Pitt. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see the differences in performance.


2016 Passing

Josh Dobbs: 121 - 207 (58.5%) for 1525 yards, 14 TDs, 9 INTs, Adj QBR 65.0
Nathan Peterman: 100 - 158 (63.3%) for 1252 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs, Adj QBR 73.9

2015 Passing

Josh Dobbs: 205 - 344 (59.6%) for 2291 yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs, Adj QBR 75.9
Nathan Peterman: 193 - 314 (61.5%) for 2287 yards, 20 TDs, 8 INTs, Adj QBR 68.0


2016 Rushing

Josh Dobbs: 89 rushes for 243 yards, 3.3 ypc
Nathan Peterman: 40 rushes for 133 yards, 3.3 ypc

2015 Rushing

Josh Dobbs: 146 rushes for 671 yards, 4.6 ypc
Nathan Peterman: 86 rushes for 233 yards, 2.7 ypc


2016 # of Times Sacked

Josh Dobbs: 17
Nathan Peterman: 5

2015 # of Times Sacked

Josh Dobbs: 21
Nathan Peterman: 25


2016 Strength of Schedule (Sagarin)

Tennessee: #2 (Sagarin)
Pitt: #44 (Sagarin)

2015 Strength of Schedule

Tennessee: #37 (Sagarin), 7 bowl teams, 5 ranked teams, 2 top 10 teams
Pitt: #27 (Sagarin), 8 bowl teams, 4 ranked teams, 1 top 10 team


Overall

There are a few big caveats comparing the data. Particularly for 2016, Dobbs has faced a much tougher schedule than Peterman. Tennessee's schedule is very front-loaded, while Pitt has a more difficult end-stretch of the season. Also worth noting that Dobbs has been sacked 17 times this year, versus only 5 for Peterman, suggesting that Peterman has had much better protection. However, the data for 2015 is more comparable as Tennessee and Pitt's schedules were closer in the SOS department and protection was similar.

Overall, Peterman has been a slightly better passer. His completion percentage is consistently higher than Dobbs. Peterman has also been less error-prone, with only 2 INTs versus 9 for Dobbs this season. However, it's difficult to say how much of this goes back to the protection issue. Dobbs and Peterman have similar TD to INT ratios in 2015, whereas Peterman is very superior in 2016, but has also been sacked about 1/3 the number of times as Dobbs. Regardless, Peterman's stats are very impressive this year. 158 throws and only 2 INTs is EXCELLENT!

Dobbs was clearly the superior rusher last season with 4.6 ypc versus 2.7 ypc for Peterman. This season, the rushing stats are similar, but once again, this probably comes back to two factors: (1) strength of schedule and (2) sacks. Remember that sacks count in QB yardage figures in college football. If we assume about 6 yards lost per sack, then Dobbs yards per carry increases to 5.6 in 2016, while Peterman's is about 4.6. With that adjustment, Dobbs still looks like the superior runner, but Peterman certainly seems to be improving in that department.

Diving into this data, it does stand out to me that Dobbs' protection has been quite poor at times. 17 sacks in 7 games is a lot! Once again however, you have to consider the competition. In terms of sacks per game, we've played the #1 (Alabama), #12 (Texas A&M), #16 (Florida), #27 (Virginia Tech), and #34 (App State) ranked teams, so we've faced a lot of very good pass rushing teams this year. Whereas none of the teams remaining on our schedule are in the top 50 in this category. Theoretically, this should mean better protection for Dobbs over the last 5 games of the year, so maybe his stats start to improve significantly, whereas Pitt has a very difficult schedule coming up (Virginia Tech, @Miami-FL, @Clemson, Duke, Syracuse).

Overall, accounting for everything, it's difficult to say that either Dobbs or Peterman has clearly been the better QB. Both have strengths and weaknesses and both have performed relatively well. Peterman is the better passer, Dobbs the better runner. Peterman has certainly had the "cleaner pocket" this year and he's thrived with that. Given our protection issues thus far, Peterman's passing stats would probably be weaker here if he were the starter. All the same, happy to see Peterman having success at Pitt.

Now, I just hope we can get our protection issues sorted out next season. (And the rest of this year for that matter.)

 

[Fijivol72]

Lot of work congrats, but I don't have a clue what your point is. Comparing schedules it is not even close and Va Tech would beat Pitt like a drum.

 

[MiramarVol]

OP is a pot stirring trouble maker.

 

[ATLVols]

The big difference this year is that Dobbs is getting pressured or hit on every pass. Congrats to Peterman in the way he was progressed, but I'm very glad Dobbs is our guy. Watching them on the field, it's not even close.

 

[Vols_74]

I saw NP play with our oline with my own eyes and I saw JD play with our oline with my own eyes and that's all the comparison I need although I am happy NP is doing good at Pitt. JD is a better fit for our offense and NP is a better fit for what Pitt is doing.

 

[VolNExile]

Context is everything. It would have been fun to see NP play for Tennessee with an effective offense, but it was not to be.

Each is remarkably talented, in different ways. I'm proud of and happy for both of them.

 

[rtb1983]

Lot of work congrats, but I don't have a clue what your point is. Comparing schedules it is not even close and Va Tech would beat Pitt like a drum.

We will find out Thursday night. VT plays at Pitt.

 

[RCKYT0P]

Dobbs stayed at UT to compete....I'll take that all day, every day over somebody that left the program.

Also, remember what happened when Peterman started vs Florida?

 

[volfan102455]

Peterman was not successful here. Get over it.

 

[Chilmonty]

Thank Goodness for this thread, I have been wondering about Peterman Every Waking Moment!! :blink::blink:


Oh Wait...no I haven't!




.

 

[volfan102455]

And if Dobbs was at Pitt, he would probably be starting over Peterman. He is the better athlete and competitor ... IMO.

 

[NorthDallas40]

DG please do us a favor and update the stats again at regular seasons end. And yeah I think SOS is a discriminator that is not really factored in here either.

Just mho but in the face of adversity Dobbs manned up and rose to the challenge. Petersen crumbled and left. I know who I would want playing QB. Hope Petersen finds what he's looking for but never want to see him in orange and white again.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Thanks, DG, for the effort.

Unfortunately, I think this is a bit too much the tail wagging the dog.

You mentioned the "big caveats"...particularly the difference in competition levels. That difference is simply too big. It dwarfs the findings, and so invalidates any comparisons so utterly that there's no way to get back to "apples vs apples."

You pointed that caveat out yourself, for 2016. As for 2015, one must question the Sagarin SoS rating. I mean: Navy, ND, North Carolina, and Iowa (Iowa being the top 10 team, I suppose) as their "four ranked teams"? Compared to Tennessee's five ranked teams of Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and (an admittedly weaker than their ranking indicates) Northwestern. Given that none of those four ranked teams on Pitt's 2015 schedule were much different from Northwestern, can you imagine us playing 4 Northwesterns in a row?

So how on earth does Pitt have a SoS 10 spots tougher than ours? See? It's just goofy. I like Sagarin, he gets a lot right. But he can really mess up SoS sometimes.

Both years, Pitt played a significantly easier schedule than the Vols. And that's the dog being wagged by the statistical tail, I think.

I do appreciate your effort, but it doesn't really play out as valid for me.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

OP is a pot stirring trouble maker.

No pot stirring. Just comparing two of our recruited QBs to see how they've fared overall. Honestly, Dobbs has a slight edge if you ask me (once you factor in competition), but regardless, Dobbs is clearly the better fit for our system, whereas Peterman is probably the better fit for Pitt's system.

Dobbs stayed at UT to compete....I'll take that all day, every day over somebody that left the program.

Every time someone says this I want to smack them across the face. If you're a football player, you want to play football. By transferring, Nathan Peterman is getting to "compete", whereas he would not have the chance here. We have an excellent program, but let's stop trashing everyone who wants to have a chance to play the sport they love.

Peterman was not successful here. Get over it.

Our offensive line was not successful here in 2014. Get over it. All you Peterman haters have proven wrong. He's proven to be pretty good when he has protection.

And if Dobbs was at Pitt, he would probably be starting over Peterman. He is the better athlete and competitor ... IMO.

Tough to say. Dobbs doesn't fit a lot of systems very well. We've seen here that he's not a good drop-back passer. In an offensive system that emphasizes that more, he might struggle in the same way Peterman struggled in our system.

Lot of work congrats, but I don't have a clue what your point is. Comparing schedules it is not even close and Va Tech would beat Pitt like a drum.

There's not really a point other than to compare and contrast. Not drawing grand conclusions. I just found it interesting that they've both fared pretty well overall, and it's difficult to pick a clear winner based on stats. When you factor in competition level, I think Dobbs has an edge overall though.

As for VT vs Pitt, we'll find out soon enough. I think Virginia Tech is very underrated right now, so I'd pick them to win.

Just mho but in the face of adversity Dobbs manned up and rose to the challenge. Petersen crumbled and left. I know who I would want playing QB.

If by "crumbled and left" you mean that he sought a transfer so that he could be right back in the line of fire and prove himself, you're correct. Jesus, people, get over it. The fact that he left is proof that he does want to compete; not that he doesn't want to. Why would anyone want to sit on a bench for 4 years and never have an opportunity to prove themselves?

 

[NorthDallas40]

Ok yes I stand by crumbled and left. I also said I hope he finds what he's looking for and I do. And in other posts on this topic I said I wish him the best and I do. However in my opinion and it's just that my opinion he is the worst QB we have put on the field in recent years.

What's he looking for is playing time. I get it. But I honestly didn't want to see him get any more of that here. And he's having success at Purdue. Great honestly happy for him. But still don't wish he was here. It turned out win win.

And I do hope you update it on the whole seasons work because right now I don't really see it as a fair comparison as you can't quantify the obvious discriminators in SOS and O line injuries. You do offer qualitative opinions and we pretty much agree on those. I think comparing the whole body of work where Dobbs isn't running for his life on every play might help smooth that out a bit.

 

[irish1485]

Thanks, DG, for the effort.

Unfortunately, I think this is a bit too much the tail wagging the dog.

You mentioned the "big caveats"...particularly the difference in competition levels. That difference is simply too big. It dwarfs the findings, and so invalidates any comparisons so utterly that there's no way to get back to "apples vs apples."

You pointed that caveat out yourself, for 2016. As for 2015, one must question the Sagarin SoS rating. I mean: Navy, ND, North Carolina, and Iowa (Iowa being the top 10 team, I suppose) as their "four ranked teams"? Compared to Tennessee's five ranked teams of Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and (an admittedly weaker than their ranking indicates) Northwestern. Given that none of those four ranked teams on Pitt's 2015 schedule were much different from Northwestern, can you imagine us playing 4 Northwesterns in a row?

So how on earth does Pitt have a SoS 10 spots tougher than ours? See? It's just goofy. I like Sagarin, he gets a lot right. But he can really mess up SoS sometimes.

Both years, Pitt played a significantly easier schedule than the Vols. And that's the dog being wagged by the statistical tail, I think.

I do appreciate your effort, but it doesn't really play out as valid for me.

This.. Would love to see Petermans stats vs a stretch that includes Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Bama instead of Penn. State, Ok. State, UNC, and Marshall.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

You mentioned the "big caveats"...particularly the difference in competition levels. That difference is simply too big.

I'd disagree. I think you're overestimating our SOS in 2015. It's true that we played more "top teams" than Pitt, but we also played more "cupcake" games than Pitt. Western Carolina and North Texas were both much weaker than any team Pitt faced all of 2015. We also faced a few incredibly weak SEC defenses with South Carolina and Kentucky on the schedule. The ACC Coastal was stronger than the SEC East. Overall, I'd say our schedule was polarized (very strong teams and very weak teams) while Pitt tended to consistently play more middle-of-the-pack.

You pointed that caveat out yourself, for 2016.

For 2016, it's certainly difficult to compare, but we'll have a better idea at the end of the season. Pitt's SOS for the remainder of the year is very strong whereas ours is very weak. Once again, the bottom half of the SEC East is not exactly a Murderer's Row.

As for 2015, one must question the Sagarin SoS rating. I mean: Navy, ND, North Carolina, and Iowa (Iowa being the top 10 team, I suppose) as their "four ranked teams"?

North Carolina nearly beat Clemson. Not sure what the qualm with Notre Dame is; they were good last year. Navy seems to be consistently underrated. Iowa was probably a bit overrated, but still a good team.

Compared to Tennessee's five ranked teams of Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and (an admittedly weaker than their ranking indicates) Northwestern. Given that none of those four ranked teams on Pitt's 2015 schedule were much different from Northwestern, can you imagine us playing 4 Northwesterns in a row?

UNC and Notre Dame were both stronger than Georgia and Florida last year.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

When you get to comparing the easier parts of two teams' schedules, it doesn't work the same way as comparing the top end. Whether you play the 110th-best team in the country and I play the 130th-best, or vice-versa, we should both win those games comfortably. So those 10 (or even 20 or 30) positions in ranking make no difference at all.

They played Youngstown State and Akron, while we played West Carolina and North Texas. Should be 2 solid wins for each program, and the differences among the four opponents don't matter one whit.

No, you want to realistically assess SoS, look primarily at the competitive end of the spectrum.

And when you do that, there is no comparison between Oklahoma-Alabama-Georgia-Florida-Arkansas-Northwestern on one side, and ND-UNC-Iowa-Navy-Miami-Duke on the other side.

It's just not close.

Sorry, DG, I do appreciate the effort you put into the comparison, I just think it is invalidated by the significant difference in schedule strength, both 2015 and 2016-to-date.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Dobbs stayed at UT to compete....I'll take that all day, every day over somebody that left the program.

Also, remember what happened when Peterman started vs Florida?

Yes, he broke his thumb.

 

[RCKYT0P]

Every time someone says this I want to smack them across the face. If you're a football player, you want to play football. By transferring, Nathan Peterman is getting to "compete", whereas he would not have the chance here. We have an excellent program, but let's stop trashing everyone who wants to have a chance to play the sport they love.

Anger management could be your friend.

 

[Rockytoptalker]

Peterman looked lost in the pocket during his tenure here. I'm glad he's come into his own at Pitt, sometimes it takes some longer to develop than others. And others times it may just be the system...

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Apples to oranges IMO. Peterman is a traditional pocket passer while Dobbs is a true dual threat. Very hard to compare the two. What would have Peterman looked like with a good OL? I can counter that with asking what Dobbs would look like as well with the same. Now since Peterman is on another team and Dobbs has stayed behind our terrible OL, Dobbs cannot be graded the same way. The only way to really compare the two is if Dobbs had transferred to a similar team with a similar schedule and OL.

There is a HUGE disparity in the level of competition played between the two. Alabama and Florida is much better defensively than any team Pitt faces and its not even close. That right there trumps pretty much anything else.

I am happy that Peterman is doing well at Pitt. The fact is he didnt do well when he was here. He was given opportunities to assert himself as the starter and he failed. Its not a knock on him, its just what happened. It doesnt matter what he did in camos or practice. He just didnt cut it on the field with Tennessee. Dobbs did. Peterman is now at Pitt and he is playing good. Dobbs is behind a terrible OL and still has played good.

 

[GVF]

Just my message board opinion, but never have been overly impressed with Dobbs. He has his moments. But he's not consistent. A senior QB throwing the INT he did in OT at TAM. On the first down play. There wasn't a UT receiver in the same zip code. He's just not elite. He's good. That's as far as I go. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

 

[k-town_king]

Even with the weak schedule Peterman has never had a 300 yard game. Dobbs is clearly the superior passer and all-around qb.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

Dobbs is a winner. He won the most important games of the season. That's all I care about. Pitt can keep Peterman. We have our QB and he is the best one we've had since Ainge and the best representative of this University since Peyton.