Just how good was Greg Maddux?

#26
#26
tri_vol said:
I agree with you but compare jeter or man ram to a-rod or barry bonds in the post season. As you said baseball is random and even the great ones fail 70% of the time. So even clutch guys are going to fail more often than not.
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Everyone said Alex Rodriguez was a great regular season hitter but couldn't get it done in the postseason, couldn't handle the pressure, blah blah blah, and then the guy hit something like .370 with 6 HRs in the 2009 postseason and carried the Yankees to a title. And everybody said, "Wow, look at the personality transplant this guy has had! He's a winner now! He's a real Yankee!" And then he had an underwhelming 30 ABs in the postseason last year, and the consensus was that no, last year was just a fluke and he really can't handle it.

Bonds was the same way -- "can't get it done in the postseason, can't rise to the occasion" -- and then he went out and absolutely dominated the 2002 postseason. And then he did nothing in the first round the next year.

Meanwhile Jim Leyritz, a man with the absolute opposite postseason reputation, hit freaking .213 in the postseason -- fifty points lower than his regular career average. If he really could rise to the moment and deliver in the big games and all that other crap, why the terrible postseason batting average? Did he only really try hard late in games with runners on base? Did he dig in against Mark Wohlers thinking, "Okay, NOW it's a big situation, and NOW I really need to try hard?"

This "clutch" stuff is mostly a myth. Players are the same in the playoffs that they are in the regular season. The only differences are the sample sizes and the weight we put on it.
 
#27
#27
Vercingetorix said:
I'm definitely in, if we can figure out a way to make the timing work with my dumping the kids off on the frau for a night. When are you moving?
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2 months or so...

We got some time. My schedule is always wide open (on purpose) so just let me know...
 
#28
#28
Also, Pedro had an injury year during 97-2003, and only topped 30 starts three times during that span. Maddux probably never missed a start during his stretch
 
#29
#29
Call it confidence, luck or myth but fact is some guys hit better with runners on and two outs. That's what I am talking about not the entire game.

Some players have the ability to laser their focus in high pressure situations. Leyritz and Boone probably got lucky. Jeter, Petitie, Manny, Papi, Smoltz displayed that ability on multiple occasions. Willing to bet bottom of the ninth runner on with two outs, Torre would've rather had Jeter at the plate than A-Rod.

There such a thing as mental toughness. Some players don't have it. They overthink a situation and press rather than staying calm and focused. Imo, that's what happens to guys like A-rod, maddux and bonds. Bonds has even admitted that in the post season he was more likely to expand his strike zone and had trouble staying disciplined as a hitter which caused him to come up short many times.
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#30
#30
tri_vol said:
Call it confidence, luck or myth but fact is some guys hit better with runners on and two outs. That's what I am talking about not the entire game.

Some players have the ability to laser their focus in high pressure situations. Leyritz and Boone probably got lucky. Jeter, Petitie, Manny, Papi, Smoltz displayed that ability on multiple occasions. Willing to bet bottom of the ninth runner on with two outs, Torre would've rather had Jeter at the plate than A-Rod.

There such a thing as mental toughness. Some players don't have it. They overthink a situation and press rather than staying calm and focused. Imo, that's what happens to guys like A-rod, maddux and bonds. Bonds has even admitted that in the post season he was more likely to expand his strike zone and had trouble staying disciplined as a hitter which caused him to come up short many times.
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Are you seriously going to tell me that Maddux had an issue with mental toughness and focus?
 
#31
#31
tri_vol said:
Call it confidence, luck or myth but fact is some guys hit better with runners on and two outs. That's what I am talking about not the entire game.
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Nobody hits better with runners on and two outs -- at least not year to year and team to team, as a consistent and measurable skill. There are no players who consistently hit better than their usual numbers in high-leverage (late innings, close games, runners on) situations. A guy will hit .400 with runners on base one year, and then the next he hits .200. It's random statistical noise.

Derek Jeter's career batting average? .313. His career average with two outs and runners in scoring position? .310. In a late and close game? .292. He's the same hitter every time he bats.


Some players have the ability to laser their focus in high pressure situations. Leyritz and Boone probably got lucky. Jeter, Petitie, Manny, Papi, Smoltz displayed that ability on multiple occasions. Willing to bet bottom of the ninth runner on with two outs, Torre would've rather had Jeter at the plate than A-Rod.

There such a thing as mental toughness. Some players don't have it. They overthink a situation and press rather than staying calm and focused. Imo, that's what happens to guys like A-rod, maddux and bonds. Bonds has even admitted that in the post season he was more likely to expand his strike zone and had trouble staying disciplined as a hitter which caused him to come up short many times.
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This is a made-up explanation for a phenomenon that doesn't exist. Why did Rodrigeuz suddenly become mentally tough in 2009? And then lose it again last year? How did Bonds suddenly learn to be tough one year? Why isn't Jeter mentally tough in the ALCS (53 games, .258 average)? Maddux had a stellar 2.06 ERA in the World Series, but he lost three of those games because he somehow isn't mentally tough?
 
#32
#32
VOLinthaATL said:
2 months or so...

We got some time. My schedule is always wide open (on purpose) so just let me know...
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Cool. School's out in about three weeks, and the Wife Acceptance Factor for me going out to drink beers late-ish on a weeknight will go way up after that.
 
#33
#33
I think he had a tendency to over think a situation. When you do that youre more likely to hang one our miss a spot. Dont get me wrong, I think maddux was great but if I'm picking a game 7 starter, I'm going with Smoltz.
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#34
#34
Vercingetorix said:
Nobody hits better with runners on and two outs -- at least not year to year and team to team, as a consistent and measurable skill. There are no players who consistently hit better than their usual numbers in high-leverage (late innings, close games, runners on) situations. A guy will hit .400 with runners on base one year, and then the next he hits .200. It's random statistical noise.

Derek Jeter's career batting average? .313. His career average with two outs and runners in scoring position? .310. In a late and close game? .292. He's the same hitter every time he bats.




This is a made-up explanation for a phenomenon that doesn't exist. Why did Rodrigeuz suddenly become mentally tough in 2009? And then lose it again last year? How did Bonds suddenly learn to be tough one year? Why isn't Jeter mentally tough in the ALCS (53 games, .258 average)? Maddux had a stellar 2.06 ERA in the World Series, but he lost three of those games because he somehow isn't mentally tough?
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I meant that some guys perform better than others. Not that their average improves over other situations.

You can lose your mental focus. It happens to players in all sports all the time.
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#35
#35
Does anybody know how many pitches Tom Glavine threw in Game 6 of the 1995 WS? Because I'm trying to figure out why the hell Bobby Cox took Glavine while he was throwing a freakin one hitter to win the World Series.
 
#36
#36
zjcvols said:
Does anybody know how many pitches Tom Glavine threw in Game 6 of the 1995 WS? Because I'm trying to figure out why the hell Bobby Cox took Glavine while he was throwing a freakin one hitter to win the World Series.
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IIRC he told both Leo and Bobby he was gassed.
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#39
#39
Often wondered what that staff would have done with an all star closer like rivera.
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#40
#40
tri_vol said:
I meant that some guys perform better than others. Not that their average improves over other situations.
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Uh, if a player hits the same in clutch situations has he does in regular situations, how is that "clutch hitting" instead of just "hitting"? I mean, without looking it up at all I'm going to guess that Tony Gwynn had better batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position than Rafael Ramirez. Does that mean he's more clutch and has better focus and toughness?

I mean, people can talk about toughness and focus and nerves all they want, but if nobody's actually stepping it up in those situations -- if everybody's hitting pretty much exactly what they normally do, regardless of how clutch the situation is -- then do the intangibles even matter at all?
 
#41
#41
zjcvols said:
Does anybody know how many pitches Tom Glavine threw in Game 6 of the 1995 WS? Because I'm trying to figure out why the hell Bobby Cox took Glavine while he was throwing a freakin one hitter to win the World Series.
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Glavine had thrown 109 pitches and had the top of the order coming up in the 9th with zero margin for error. Wohlers was damn near unhittable in 1995. I was glad to see the move.
 
#42
#42
Vercingetorix said:
Uh, if a player hits the same in clutch situations has he does in regular situations, how is that "clutch hitting" instead of just "hitting"? I mean, without looking it up at all I'm going to guess that Tony Gwynn had better batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position than Rafael Ramirez. Does that mean he's more clutch and has better focus and toughness?

I mean, people can talk about toughness and focus and nerves all they want, but if nobody's actually stepping it up in those situations -- if everybody's hitting pretty much exactly what they normally do, regardless of how clutch the situation is -- then do the intangibles even matter at all?
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Imo, its not a matter of stepping up but not falling back. Being able to do what you always do no matter the pressure. Not to switch sports but a recent example is the kid who blew up at the masters. He obviously has talent but lost his focus and the wheels came off. This happens to all athletes. Lebron is another great athlete but in crunch time, he isn't completing the job. Jordan, Magic and Bird on the other hand got the job done.

Intagibles do matter. Its what separates the greats from the very good.
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#43
#43
tri_vol said:
I think he had a tendency to over think a situation. When you do that youre more likely to hang one our miss a spot. Dont get me wrong, I think maddux was great but if I'm picking a game 7 starter, I'm going with Smoltz.
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I've had the privilege of meeting both Maddox and Smoltz on more than a few occasions, and consider them both great pitchers. Smoltz won games with his pure grit and fastball, and occasional off-speed pitches to keep batters guessing. Maddox won because he was one of the most accurate, intelligent, and perceptive pitchers in the game. He knew more about some batters than they knew themselves, and always used this to his advantage.
 
#44
#44
IBlvNTmWrk said:
I've had the privilege of meeting both Maddox and Smoltz on more than a few occasions, and consider them both great pitchers. Smoltz won games with his pure grit and fastball, and occasional off-speed pitches to keep batters guessing. Maddox won because he was one of the most accurate, intelligent, and perceptive pitchers in the game. He knew more about some batters than they knew themselves, and always used this to his advantage.
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I have always had the same opinion. All things being equal, for one game I'll take the guy with grit.
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#45
#45
Vercingetorix said:
Glavine had thrown 109 pitches and had the top of the order coming up in the 9th with zero margin for error. Wohlers was damn near unhittable in 1995. I was glad to see the move.
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Yep...although I was sitting in left field and the two fly balls Wohlers gave up in the 9th scared the crap out of me.
 
#46
#46
GAVol said:
Yep...although I was sitting in left field and the two fly balls Wohlers gave up in the 9th scared the crap out of me.
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Am I imagining that Cox left the decision up to him or not?
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#47
#47
NYYVol said:
Am I imagining that Cox left the decision up to him or not?
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I think the story goes that Glavine came in after the 8th, and immediately told him that he was done . . . To the surprise of Cox.
 
#48
#48
GAVol said:
I think the story goes that Glavine came in after the 8th, and immediately told him that he was done . . . To the surprise of Cox.
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So I'm not completely crazy yet.
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#49
#49
tri_vol said:
Imo, its not a matter of stepping up but not falling back. Being able to do what you always do no matter the pressure. Not to switch sports but a recent example is the kid who blew up at the masters. He obviously has talent but lost his focus and the wheels came off. This happens to all athletes. Lebron is another great athlete but in crunch time, he isn't completing the job. Jordan, Magic and Bird on the other hand got the job done.

Intagibles do matter. Its what separates the greats from the very good.
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Maddux's postseason ERA was one-tenth of a run higher than his career regular season ERA. A tenth of a run. He had an ERA of 2.09 in the World Series. Exactly how is that puckering up and folding under the pressure and not doing what he always did? And yet all you can say about him is that he overthought things, he lost his focus, his teammates didn't score any runs for him in the playoffs because they didn't have any confidence in him, etc etc. I'm sorry, but that's just crap.
 
#50
#50
GAVol said:
I think the story goes that Glavine came in after the 8th, and immediately told him that he was done . . . To the surprise of Cox.
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It takes a man's man to come into the dugout with a one-hit complete-game shutout in the World Series on the line and go tell your manager that your arm is done and he needs to go to the closer. There's a time to be competitive, but there's a time to recognize the situation and get the win for your team.
 
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